but it's tabloid news, got it at the grocery checkout, you mean it's not all true?:facepalm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
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but it's tabloid news, got it at the grocery checkout, you mean it's not all true?:facepalm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
futures off 800 this morning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
WLL filed Chapter 11 this morning. It's informative to follow these bankruptcy stories to see how the stock and bonds make out.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
Details: The Plan will provide for, among other things: (1) significant de-leveraging of the Company’s capital structure by over $2.2 billion through the exchange of all of the Notes for 97% of the new equity of the reorganized Company to be issued pursuant to the Plan; (2) payment in full in cash and/or refinancing of the Company’s revolving credit facility; (3) the payment in full in cash of all other secured creditors, tax and other priority claimants, and employees; and (4) the Company’s existing equity holders receiving 3% of the new equity of the reorganized Company and warrants (as described in the Term Sheet)."
So the bonds holders are given 97% ownership and the existing stock holders get 3%. Looking at the bonds this morning, all of them are trading at less than 10 cents on the dollar.
VSTO up 5% this morning
up over 100% since I mentioned it here.
GDX up over 3% today
So instead of my money being down 2 1/2% this morning--It's up 4%
I believe this divergence will grow exponentially,
GDX hitting 5%
The spread as been ^Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
6%-7% thus far today, will be fun to track.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
End of day spread:
Dow -4.44%
GDX + 4.3%
Spread 8.74%
Futures were up 400 about 30 min ago, now down 200
GDX will gap up biggly this morning,
Dow holding steady--GDX up 2-2 1/2%
As I've said--I switched to Gold based funds for preservation of capital,
My thought about a 90 year cycle would expand capital.
I'd be happy not to lose capital as the indices drop.
If I can expand even half, a quarter of the 1929 run up, I'd be ecstatic.
At the 2 hour mark for the markets--DOW is up 1%ish
GDX up 6%ish
DOW has been playing in the +300 point range this morning.
It is now back to the open.
If the open support goes out, it could be a negative afternoon.
Dow +2.24% today(since selling out of indices -2.2%)Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
GDX +4.2% today(since buying GDX +8.5%)
Spread--10.7%
DOW-1.69%(Since selling -3.89%)Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
GDX-0.36%(Since buying 8.14%)
Spread 12.03%
Stocks go up and stocks go down...
Most the shit oldno7 posts is Chinese.
Climb-Utah.com
Simple business/market math.
But I can give you cliff notes:haha:
I have mathematical indicators that had me get out of all indices funds prior to crash
The market crashed 36%
I was buying and losing money as the market went down.
The market rebounded about 25%
In that 25% recovery I made a 4.75% profit from my buying as the market dropped.
I then got back out of all indices based funds and went to Gold based fund(GDX)
Since getting back out of indices, the DOW has dropped 3.89%
GDX is up 8.14% since I bought it.
So to put it into dollars that you understand.
If you had a 1,000,000 account at the top and bought into the lows as it dropped, then sold on the pullback, your account would be 1,045,000 when I got out of indices and bought gold.
As of today, that same account that was worth 1,000,000 at DOW-29,568, is now worth 1,130,063.
A buy and holder who had 1,000,000 at DOW 29,568, today would have approximately $720,000 as the market is 28%ish off the highs.
A difference of $410,063.
Now of course no one has that kind of money in their retirement account, so you can use whatever factor that is applicable.
The "spread" I post is the price difference between if I would have held indice based mutual funds but instead went 100% into gold fund(GDX)
That happened on the last pullback and I posted about it.
I've posted every move I've made and explained why, as they were happening or before.
To me--someones Chinese is my knowledge of Market math and Market history and the ability to make money knowing that chinese.
Thats all.
The bogley person I worked with over the last year knows a lot of what I'm speaking of.
I believe that person has made good money using my system and that person, as of the other day, was into GDX.
So buying and holding nets you $720,000 left from your $1,000,000 account.
Knowing Market math and market history nets that same account $1,130,063
So I guess knowing "chinese" has it's benefits:ne_nau:
And the spread on those numbers should grow--Bigley.
As a side note for those who believe the market will always come back, they are likely correct.
The 1929 crash came back in 26years.
And it's very likely we have new lows to hit here.
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/g...old-silver.jpg
How about that's not really news... anyone that follows stocks knows to look at the futures market to get a good idea what the market will do when it opens.... I've known that for 40 years... I'm more surprised that the Clinton News Network is just figuring it out.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Climb-Utah.com
My prediction... March 23rd was the bottom.
Climb-Utah.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
No more chinese after today:
I'm out of GDX for now.
Dow + 7.73%Day(+3.84%)
GDX +5.57%day(13.71%)I sold considerably higher than the closing price so my % would be better.
I also bought it again in the last 15 minutes and sold in the EXT session.
Chinese done.
At this point from DOW 29,568 I'm up about 14%
I believe technical trading(math) will always outperform the markets.
I posted everything real time or sooner.
For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.
The cascading risks are these:
-deep recession lasts into 2021
-Dems sweep
-increased tax and regulatory burden makes biz recovery difficult
- "relief" programs, UBI, expanded welfare create a large, angry class living directly on the govt payroll and voting for more
-amnesty and some form of open borders spikes number of indigents further, cements permanent Dem rule
We're so close to the precipice, falling into an abyss of Dem govt hell. What a confluence of events. I've always viewed the risk/reward profile of this year decidedly risky for equities, and the setup is even riskier now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
Respectfully disagree with most of this. If the Dems put up a juggernaut candidate worthy of toppling Trump then I'd agree with you. But Biden is so far removed from a threat to Trump that it's comical. Even all of my stalwart liberal friends have at this point conceded to another 4 years of the Trump Train.
Only a couple things that may slow down the markets.
No business running, Country at a standstill.(medical sector might be good)
New record high unemployement
Oil at 70 year lows
Inflation/hyperinflation
But it has shrugged those off in the last few days.
My system doesn't care about any of that.
I bought GDX last night and this morning--I've locked in profits
Bought VSTO this morning--locked in profits.
All with minimal risk.
BUT risk.
Never forget... Mark Cuban predicted the US economy would calapse if Trump was elected President...
Mark Cuban predicts 'world-changing' innovation stemming from outbreak, keeps 'door open' to 2020 bid
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mar...en-to-2020-bid
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court loss tonight for the sitting conservative justice endorsed by Trump bodes ill for Nov. A Dem took the governorship last year as well.
Plays into my thinking of selling out of equities as Nov approaches. I sold down about 12% today unrelated to this result.
The fund manager survey is always interesting to review. These guys drive a lot of capital around.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...dccc5a54e0.jpg
Buying and selling gold almost daily.
Huge run up so far--the fastest per day in history.
Average 2.72% per day, prior to today.
ok--no more chinese.
Via GLD?
I'm sticking to my belief that we retest the late March lows. Recall the market was historically expensive just before this, 150% total market cap vs GDP. We're at a better level now, if we were still humming. But add on the mass economic carnage these lockdowns have caused? Lower to go.
I'm still thinking Dow 15k, S&P 1750 range is the low. Why that? About 50% of peak, would bring total mkt cap vs GDP to 75%, with a 10, 20, 30% contraction of GDP making for about 100% vs GDP, with room for uncertainty and fear.
The only wrench in this theory? Whole lot of new money looking for some place to go.
Fixed it for ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
GDX
GOLD
NEM
all at or near 100% from lows
^^^This^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
One of these days folks are going to figure out betting against Trump is a losing wager.
But some folks are just slow learner's...
Not a stock so this spot will have to do.
Today is the last trading day for May oil futures contract.
It's how the big boys buy their oil.
Since it is the last trading day, contract owners of an oil future are required to take physical possession.
Ordinarily this is a good thing, today, there is no space anywhere to store more crude so a selloff began.
Those owning futures contracts are left with selling at HUGE losses.
For the first time in history, a commodity has traded at a negative value as these guys couldn't give oil away.
Current price is -$36ish
If you know how leverage in commodities works, this is mind numbing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
This is crazy.
We all know that oil will come back...it always does, the world cannot run without it. But when...? :ne_nau: