VSTO up 10%
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VSTO up 10%
Gap filled
With no buy signal for me.
These daily swings in stock values are insane... the DJIA is up over 11% in a single day...
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Dow has best day since 1933
https://www.ksl.com/article/46733809...rs-deal-on-aid
Yeah well, either day traders are thrown' around a lot of cash or people with a long term vision are taking chunks. I can't see it shooting up all week, but if it's not near as violent then it might be time to get in. Trump said Easter (maybe before) when things are gonna lighten up, so for the next two weeks I reckon it'll bounce a bit. Glad to see it though...it shows that people are just waiting to shoot it back up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Ugly time in the market. It's just a machine reacting to external news.
That's not bullish for stocks.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...2d114d50d3.jpg
Initial jobless claims surged to a record 3.3M last week as the coronavirus takes a heavy toll on the economy. It's the highest number of initial jobless claims in history.
A while ago I mentioned I missed a Gold buy thinking we had more down to go.
I now believe I missed that buy.
When the stock market crashed, it dropped 36%.
Gold dropped 45%
So having missed the bottom, I believe we are now poised for a huge bull market in Gold/precious metals.
Historically, it looks like it will be a long and sustained run up.
I'm currently looking for a precious metal deal to jump into.
During which crash? I'm not seeing gold down 45% here.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
I shot 1/5 of my cash hoard since this all started. I'm too cautious to go balls to the wall nowadays. I'll let a few more weeks pass, as I suspect this to be a bear market rally. I didn't sell any of my long term holdings during this entire period, though.
But I do tend to agree with your metals call. Either way, recovery or lower, with this massive creation of money and I'm sure another stimulus bill of an even larger $4T or some horrific number, metals have nowhere to go but up. So many dollars in the system now.
If we thought 08/09 era QE and debt were setting us up for a dollar crash and hyperinflation, then that was child's play compared to this.
Sorry I should have posted that. In the crash of 1929, gold companies were shining after the crash, most notably Homestake Mining.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
After the initial 46% drop in stocks, in 1929, Homestake crashed as well.
After that initial drop, Homestake climbed 737% over the next 6 years and 3 months.
So in our market, my best fit for Homestake is HUI.
HUI---dropped almost exactly 45% from it's high just as Homestake did in 1929.
So are we in the beginning of a 6 year bull run in the gold market?
My historical and mathematical theory would say yes.
Does that make more sense?
Yes, 1929 analogy.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
You mentioned HUI before. How are you investing in that index exactly?
For me to be long in any gold position, I was wanting to take out the support created by the Sept. 2010 low of 131.12
Instead--we took out the May 2018 low of 147 and went straight up from there but I think there is more--much more.
My only problem is I need a good entry spot, we will see what I get from here.
I haven't decided yet and would more than welcome any gold ideas you have.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
At this point I'm mostly looking Barrick(GOLD)
I'll wait and see if I get a buy on my system, I likely should.
As far as the indices go, theres a fair to good chance the low is in, suites me as I was 100% reinvested as I stated here.
I've done well the last 3 days.
But I believe those waiting for the economy to recover and then stocks to rise will be disappointed.
In the 2008 crash, aftermath, stocks started the recovery and the economy followed, I believe there is a very good chance that is already happening here.
I would look for the lowest AIC and debt in whatever miner. Those rule all else in that sector.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Edit: actually, if you're quite confident you would care more about reserves than AIC. Low debt would still be highly desirable to fund expansion. I, being cautious, always look to AIC.
Help me with AIC, I'm just a poor dumb hillbilly trying to scratch out a couple bucks a day using technicals.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
AIC I've never used.
of course all charts in the sector mirror each other closely.
Heres an ETF--GDX
Leaning pretty heavy towards GDX at this time
$21.50 area.
If today is a Ross hook, that will ruin that price.
Yes, GDX, the miner's ETF. GDXJ is the junior miners. Certainly the way to go for safety, if you can't dig and understand an individual company. Although the beasts, like Newmont and Barrick, are so large and sophisticated, they are close to the index.
AIC = all in costs; total cost to extract an ounce company-wide on all their projects. Gives an easy metric for profitability per ounce. Although the industry apparently adopted a 2nd measure, AISC = all in sustaining costs. I learned AIC 10/12 years ago and am not up on AISC. Barrick had long been a leader in AIC, = lowest. I'd be surprised if they're not still.
And incidentally, if you were looking to silver miners, beyond critical to have the lowest AIC and low debt with such a terribly depressed silver price now. I would expect some producers to go under if these silver prices last a year.
Attachment 94351
I'm guessing silver will follow the sector somewhat but I want to be Gold based.
Your fundamentals look to align somewhat to a lot, like my technicals.
Technicals give me a precise method of entry/exit, something not usually associated with fundamentals.
Quoted to catch your attention.Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
On the heels of our "what bonds tell in a distressed stock" discussion, look at Whiting Petroleum, ticker WLL.
Attachment 94360
From $8 to 80 cents. Dang, it lost 90% of its value, if it could come back you could make some good money. But look at the bond sales today:
Attachment 94362
Notice the first bond trade, matures on April 1, 2020, 4 days from now. The price was 50.5. Par is 100. So you'll double your money in 4 days.
The 11th listed bond matures 1/15/2026, sold for 9.5 (par 100, all these are). So you'd 10x your money, for a yearly yield of 82.9% (almost a double each year). The "Trade Quantity" column tells the size, $1 million+ here. Someone sold $1 million in bonds, for 9.5 cents on the dollar. They acquired them at what price and when we don't know, but at one time these were about $10 million in bonds at par value.
The bond market is saying not only bankrupt, but bankrupt in the next 4 days before the April 1 bonds mature. We'll see if this happens.
I'm slowly acquiring shares of GDX
Dang--I just started buying Friday, have much more to invest.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Up--3 1/2% this morning.
Just bought a teeny bit more GDX, just under $24.
I need 21.58 to be a mathematical support area but I'm getting a feeling Gold is gaining strength and may not retrace as far as I'd like./
And a teeny weeny lit bit more at 23.795
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-3...purchases.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
With the Russian central bank suspending gold buys, we might see a softening of gold prices. They were a decent sized net buyer for the last several years.
So the indices are still off about 25%.
The way I played this drop from the top, I'm currently up 4.75%
I have a number in mind to sell, and I want to sell.
I know this is basic math but I thought I would show it anyway.
On a 1,000,000 account for a buy and hold investor, at this point--they have 750,000
As a trader-- a 1,000,000 account is now worth--1,047,500
A difference of $297,500
And I don't see us hitting DOW 29,000 again for a year or two.
And now, I'm slowly filtering the indices money into gold based funds/stocks.
As of now--in the money I reinvested in the indices--I'm 80% Gold--20% indices
It becomes a matter of time/life vs trading. For a stretch of about 2 years starting about 6 or 7 years ago, I traded options from open to close daily. I used the Ichimoku Cloud as my main technical indicator, with 2 other MACD, RSI -type indicators, I don't remember which. I had become highly refined at seeing movements, I was trading on 15 minute bars. But that literally became an all consuming life. It was too much and too consuming and too stressful.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
There has to be happy medium, and it sounds like you have it. I've gone from that 15 minute insanity to longer term fundamentals and laying off moves until they cook for at least a few months.
Mostly moving to GDX
waiting for a buy signal in GOLD
Keep in mind--this is only the money I have in a mutual fund account.
I'm still trading daily and VSTO has been on fire.
Longer term I use Fibonacci and Gann projections that calculate.
Today is a 180deg. day from the Sept. 3 low.(My Gann Calculation)
My life is trading--thats all I do.
No surprises...
Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever
#FAKENEWS... maybe one of these days Accadacca will stop watching CNN.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
1987 was the worst first quarter ever when the DJIA dropped 25.88%. Last quarter dropped 23.2%.
Anyone that can math understands why the percentage is what's important.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...1d3aef7915.jpg
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WRONG! It’s from USA Today. You’ll have to bitch to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...mp/5093369002/
I'm thinking now the market retests the lows and potentially goes lower, but not necessarily with the high volatility we had seen. Rather with many months of a plain bear market.
Based on the things Birx and Fauci said in the presser today, we're in for several months of weak economic activity. Going to weigh on earnings for the rest of the year at least.
Yep agree, I'm still transitioning to Gold, may not get everything there.
From this point--I'm thinking Gold preserves value(hedge) to slightly increases over the Dow.
The regaining of market highs gets tougher the longer this goes on.
But once again--Trump is the kicker, he can build an economy faster, better, bigglier, than anyone.
If we go democrat--a huge recession to depression is a given, it's what they prefer.
Do the math... Don't get sucked in with all the other sheep.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Math tip - Points dropped is not percentage lost.
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