sold 2nd half just over +6%
Now hopefully fill the gap and buy again
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sold 2nd half just over +6%
Now hopefully fill the gap and buy again
VSTO--that is all
And MAN---Did I miss HUI
The high for VSTO should be in for the day(should, it's strong right now)
I'm looking for another buy signal, if it doesn't run away from me.
No chance to re buy from 20%Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Now up 31%
Now dropping, I might just get another buy signal today.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Nice work. I have a different style, looking for distressed names and holding longer.
I have several bank preferred limit orders in, trying to catch some downdrafts. Also put in an $8.10 limit order on HMLP, my favorite natural gas play. Whatever I get would be a year holding or so.
I only use limit orders with an occasional stop order to exit but hopefully if all goes good, a limit order there as well.
I don't know anyone else who day trades like I do either.
I've tried teaching a fellow bogleyite and I think he does ok when playing by the rules.
But it's been a year long project.
AND--it's taken that long to get him to quit reading news stories to me.
...
No kidding! My God...an investment just a week ago would have doubled your money. Looks like you're not the only one playing on this one, eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
It had a happy home between 10 and 12. I'm gonna read up about this company right now.
I'm getting concerned this whole event may be more prolonged than we think. Like months of shutdowns. In which case, the market suffers massive more losses from here.
Old and two and others, thoughts.
Well...my first thought is, do you get any sleep? Hell, I haven't the slightest idea how long this will go on. Optimistically, I'd like to think the warm weather dies the whole thing down and everything opens back up in a couple weeks, maybe less.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
These people need to get back to work. "Government handouts" or not, I think the pressure to back off these closures will heat up quick. Maybe they'll issue new "guidelines".
I think the stock market WANTS to get going, but it's the day traders with the in-n-out steering it right now. But when people get back to work it'll be robust and more of the cash sitting on the sidelines will come in. I'm hopeful that before the middle of April things will be generally normal again.
I think it might take until the end of summer before the Dow gets anywhere near 25. I think the money will come back in measured and cautious, not in giant wads. Personally, I'm going to be investing considerably...and it'll likely all get dumped in at one time. While it's true that some people are really hurting, this is also an opportunity that would be foolish to ignore. Triumph and tragedy, huh?
The crash of 1929 saw a 46% market drop.
The crash of 1987 saw a 34% market drop.
Our current low is -29%
I've mentioned before, the daily rate of decline is historic in the sense that the current rate exceeds both 1929 and 1987 in daily rate--thats huge.
So we are in uncharted waters.
It can realistically be argued that we have already declined more than half of the total potential move.
At the beginning of the crash, the first 16% drop, the underlying structure of the market was in tact, we were still adding jobs, unemployment at all time lows and GDP rising.
At this point--that has all changed. shuttering most business is going to have a very negative effect.
So all the words and bravado of I told ya so's concerning the markets are worthless and bullshit.
Now if one is making money using well thought out market analysis, they would be the winner.
In other words, here--money talks and bullshit walks.
My strategy(based on actual money invested, not just wet dreams and wild ass predictions) has been to buy the lows.
My trading style allows just that.
I'm currently 90% re invested and looking for 1 or 2 more new lows.
I don't want to be holding cash when the market bottoms out and begins to rally.
I may have spent my 100% of available funds prior to the low but I will be all in.
I believe it is a sound strategy and it works for me.
So the only corresponding markets we can look at for reference are 1929(46% decline) and 1987(34% decline)
I'll play the odds that we are within 10% of the low and yes, my money is where my mouth is.
Remember what 9-11 did to the markets and economy? Well that is going to make this look like child's play.
Climb-Utah.com
First circuit breaker just hit
Did you mean the reverse? "This is going to make that look like child's play." I was just looking at the 9-11 selloff the other day for comparison: around 17%. Markets were closed for 6 days, then reopened to large selloffs. We're now down 30%+, and I'm thinking 15k-ish, 10k-ish if we have a slow motion spread that keeps activity down till the July/August timeline mentioned the other day at the White House briefing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
The great unknown and risk is this: it's not business and market forces here. It's govt action. Even in a worst case scenario, a few hundred thousand deaths doesn't warrant a 50% or 2/3 decline in the market. But shuttering the economy by govt edict does. And therein lies the root of the impossibility in predicting this.
Noted, and we may bottom any day. It's when fear is at maximum, and that happens when the unknown is maximum, that a bottom comes in. We have several unknowns floating around: 1, actual medical risk, 2 time of shutdowns, 3 oil shock and bks playing out, and 4 election risk. Hell of a confluence of events, and all are total unknowns at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
I know most here are buy and hold investors.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
On a million dollar account--you're down a house.
Yes this started non nonchalant and has grown exponentially in perceived severity.
I would just encourage folks to dollar cost average in at this point because the largest % of drop should be in.
Those trying to hit the exact bottom, HOW?
Luck is the only way to achieve that.
Most traders are awaiting capitulation but if one has been paying attention, we had one on 2-28(most volume in history)
Why didn't that stop the decline:ne_nau:
So are you expecting another? Might happen/might not.
Are you willing to hold your money for an all or nothing buy in?
Your odds would be much greater in Vegas(except they're closed)
All good points. I'm looking for what I perceive as the max level of medical fear. And that will be potentially decoupled from the stock market, which is looking for max level of business fear. So I might miss the bottom.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Max medical fear I'd guess will come as widespread testing rolls out. Where we'll see an explosion in active case numbers. 5k cases in a country of 1/3 billion people? Silly low, and yet this national reaction so far. Imagine when that's 50k cases in 2 or 3 weeks. By then, terror awash, and the market bludgeoned lower.
Then I'll have to make a decision. It's not a decision for me yet since I'm strongly making a directional call at the moment.
Yeah that's what I meant... look at what 9-11 did to the economy and times it by at least 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
And I'm not just talking stocks. This is going to bankrupt numerous small businesses and families.
My dad was supposed to pick up a new Corvette this weekend and he just canceled... my daughter was looking at purchasing a new house this week and that was put on hold... trickle down in reverse... and my family members don't live paycheck to paycheck like most families. This is going to devastate the economy.
Your logic is sound--so far:mrgreen:Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
Several players in the vaccine world are claiming to be close.
I hope so, not likely but I hope so.
NBLX, if anyone is looking for greater than 100% divi yield. :haha: Energy names, not just a bloodbath, but a bloodocean.
We're getting into horrendous levels of fear selling. This is getting truly historic. Don't need to state the obvious, you all know. Just stream of consciousness, in awe of what we're witnessing.
Holy eff. BofA preferreds hit $11 and $13 and $14 across the range. Par $25. Unbelievable to see that level of fear in a too big to fail bank's preferred offerings.
This is unquestionably 2008 level fear, but compacted in time and more violent. It is scary volatility and unknowns.
I added to HMLP, my nat gas play. Yield around 30% at my price. Stunning, stunning selloff in so many names.
Bill Miller's thoughts. Old time legend investor: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/inve...-his-life.html
-Investor Bill Miller calls this market one of the best buying opportunities of his lifetime-
“I don’t mean to put all the money in at once but I do think layering it in right now is the way to go.”
“There have been four great buying opportunities in my adult lifetime,” he said. “The first was in 1973 and ’74, the second was in 1982, the third was in 1987 and the fourth was in 2008 and 2009. And this is the fifth one.”
Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.
Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.
Amazing,Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
I wasn't following, my system buy would have been around 76.40 and I don't have a sell yet.(interesting)
I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.
I'm looking to buy into the big boys, too. What's HD? Home Depot? I looked at that one but didn't include it on my list...I'm favorable to those that are trading where they were between '16-'17. I don't like the ones that are hovering too close to the run up in the last 3 years...not enough room to grow where others are.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
Believe it or not...Boeing and Ford. I don't believe these companies are going "down the tubes", even thought they both have issues, Boeing is going to be backed by the Fed and Ford will get thru the Hackett era just fine, IMO. Both those stocks are long holds, of course...but they have the potential to at least double your investment within a few years, maybe sooner.
Futures off 4%. Sub-19k tomorrow it appears.
Crazy but I bought VSTO again towards the close last night, if it dips below $6 I'll buy some more, otherwise I'll be looking for a sell signal on hopefully a decent profit.
This guys been reading bogley it would appear:mrgreen:Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
I get a funny feeling that real estate is going on sale in the not to distant future.
US coronavirus crisis could last 18 months or more, federal plan warns: report
https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-co...n-warns-report
Worst case scenario brainstorm report. But if it came true, the market would go single digits, 5k, Great Depression 2, etc.
But that is the kind of thinking, when it becomes talked about and considered, that pushes fear to a new level, toward some bottom.
I've been telling my realtor friends the same. People aren't going to be buying with wealth evaporating and uncertainty reigning and job security suddenly in question. Never mind the simple physical prospect of moving when lockdowns are in effect.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
A particular writer on an investing site I read articles on was ringing the alarm bells back in Jan about the market collapse coming from this. So far dead on. I need to see what his latest projections are.
More articles on various investing/biz sites discussing longer term shutdowns and such.
My thinking has been, when we see these articles go to, "may never return, end of life as we know it," we'd be close to a botttom. But I have to keep in mind, that's from a business cycle viewpoint. But this isn't a business cycle problem. It's an external, uncorrelated problem that doesn't respond to the business cycle.
Difficult to call.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1029009784
Here ya go...
I think this will be led by commercial business.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Banks do not want to foreclose on housing, they have a recent bad memory of that.
Debt forgiveness by banks(monthly mortgage payments) for up to a year would be a prudent banking move, here.
BUT--business' often live paycheck to paycheck as well, there will be little forgiveness on commercial loans, IMO
SBA loans are just that--loans.
I don't see going deeper in debt as relief.
I decided not to buy in today. Too many negative articles read late last night and this morning. Too much uncertainty, still not close to bottom until positive test numbers hit 50k, 100k in my mind and I have to be disciplined about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7