No shit! I got a pair of huge brass balls... if you listen carefully you can even hear them clanking when I walk.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
ROFLMAO
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No shit! I got a pair of huge brass balls... if you listen carefully you can even hear them clanking when I walk.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
ROFLMAO
Climb-Utah.com
Wow. Just wow. The Fed announced here on Sunday rates being slashed to 0%.
I don't know how the market will react. The obvious is serious juice to stocks. But this is also a psychological crisis, and such a move could be viewed as confirmation that serious trouble is coming.
What a stunning week. Am watching the futures.
Edit: initial futures action is -1%. Boy, this week could be brutal if this final bazooka shot doesn't do anything.
Edit 2:. Futures slowly bleeding.
Edit 3: Initial headlines were zero. Actual is 0 to 0.25%. 100 basis point cut.
Futures are decidedly down, -4.5% currently. We're headed way, way low. This will be a week of historic losses looks like.
Edit: just rampant fear being discussed in investing circles. More closures, more alerts. The market will not respond to normal economic inputs. Just no telling what will happen. Keep your head and hunt out badly oversold names.
CO alert this afternoon.
This is only going to accelerate. Think how the public is going to behave, the markets will follow.
This is going to be a killer low to buy, just have to be patient.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...50a771ac4c.jpg
More outstanding buying opportunities coming tomorrow. :2thumbs:
I still think we're not at maximum panic. That will come about a week or two into widespread lockdowns. When we start hearing, "Will life ever return to normal?" "This virus will just keep coming back each year, life as we know it is done."Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Or put it this way. When you personally start getting worried, that's the bottom. I have a few key people I monitor. When they finally break and get a bit worried and can't stomach something, bottom is in.
Don't think I'm not battling the panic to a certain extent. To be honest, if we saw the bottom last week I would've been disappointed. I'm planning on a further drop, so news of a further drop is a welcomed sight.
To compound this, we have two panics. Market and virus. I have zero personal health virus panic and never will, unless it mutates and grows to a 25% mortality rate. Market panic, I will get there eventually.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Which panic are you talking about having a bit of?
I'm not worried about the virus from a personal health standpoint. Even if I contract Covid I'm young and in good health and should pull out just fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
The market panic is what I'm mostly concerned with. I just remind myself that deep market drops snap back just as fast in most cases. Panic selling is almost always a very bad idea.
Pre market action is 9 to 13% down across various names. Looking like -2300 on the open. Futures were suspended last night it appears, so no hard opening number.
-2500 here
opening may be interesting
The virus is no big deal...I think we've all been watching too many zombie movies. BTW, "Zombieland Double Tap" was pretty funny.
Everybody cashin' in on all that money that piled up in the last 10 years. I reckon they'll be a whole bunch of new cars, trucks and toys being bought this summer. Remodel projects, too.
Two or three weeks before everyone gets itching to go back to work. I can't see it going on much longer than that.
Indeed, -2470 and falling. Word of a domestic air travel shutdown on the table.
15k is coming based on the current path of last night's CDC call for gatherings of 50+ to stop for 8 weeks. That's a long time. If summer doesn't knock this out, we're looking sub-10k in a few months on a very large economic contraction. Though I do expect warm weather to help take it out.
@twotimer , consider what others in the market think. The economic damage from the actual virus pales compared to the levers being pulled. I'm afraid the media's plan to destroy, literally destroy, life as we know it before this election has worked. China is pushing our media to accelerate the carnage. We've seen that in the quick deflection of blame from China by our talking heads, with heaped condemnation of Trump.
Sure...I reckon they're trying to decide wether or not to go with the leather interior.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Your points are considerable, but if the liberal puppet masters think this is the thing to bring down Trump...I can't see it coming to fruition. Joe Biden?...c'mon.
Another fail.
I'm watching the bank preferreds this morning. They've rallied a bit, actually. Which is what I expected, they're awfully safe. I was hoping for a panic sell in them, though.
Edit: take that back. I'm not seeing trades this morning yet. Which makes sense since the first circuit breaker tripped on opening.
Put in a limit order for BML-H at $17.50. Trading at 18.10 currently.
VSTO on fire---again.
Been a great fear stock
It has. I didn't expect a gun run from this. I thought it would be food only. I don't anticipate mass societal chaos and rioting and looting. We're going the reverse: mass shut ins and lack of activity.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
But the psychology of fear apparently encompasses all modes of stockpiling. We might start to hear of water pressures dropping as people start filling doomsday cisterns?
Mathematically--support in the dow is 20,379.(hit today--20,387, basically dead on)
That comes from a 2017 low.
Last thursday I was 85% back in the indices(mutual fund)
After today--I'll be 90%
Not too worried one way or the other.
Trading stocks during this drop has been good, mostly VSTO and CGC
I'd normally look to technicals as well, and that's bread and butter for the options trading I do.
I can't get out from under this fact: the media and silicon valley want this. They want maximum chaos, in society and the markets. This isn't solely market dynamics, and consequently technicals, at play.
Still harping on my conspiracies, yes.
^^^^Technicals rule a calm market--no doubt.
They have very much been in play on this decline despite the hysteria.
Fibonacci alone has hit most every support and resistance area.
Not really a gun run.(right wing outdoors:mrgreen:)Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Very similar to the obama buying cycle.
Fear of the unknown
On the other hand--IF-- I had a semi load of TP in my garage, I'd be needing bullets to defend the TP fort.
So theres that....
I'm buying into some insurers. Hellish losses in that sector. It's a combo, I'd guess, of loss of underlying book value in their stock holdings, but possibly some fear of liabilities. Which aren't going to happen with those tilted toward life insurance. There will not be mass casualties from this, it's absurd.
I had a very good, longer term trade in precious metals last fall.
It's getting VERY close to that time to buy--again.
Which metals? I had played silver and palladium in 08/09 for some huge gains.
Wow, silver at $13. Palladium peaked around $2750 is now $1600 ish. Double wow. I had ridden silver from maybe $16 to $39 back in the day, and palladium from $250 to $800 or so.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Watching Gold but I think most will be a good play.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I lowered my limit to $16.10 seeing some weakness. Indeed we're at $17.45 now, trying to draw it down. Low volume on this type of issue, it's possible to draw prices your way.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I'm looking at some bank preferreds that sell over the bond desk as well. Unlike the above bank preferred issues that trade as a stock.
CUSIP 172967mk4 is one, a Citi issuance. Prospectus https://www.citigroup.com/citi/fixed...?ieNocache=170
Currently looks around 86c on the $, which gives a yield of 100*4.7/86= 5.5%.
The view is, if it gets worse, these will not suffer as much as plain equities, being higher seniority and from a too-big-to-fail name. If things get better, these offer a muted return of back to par, so approx 15% from here, while collecting the yield. If we get to the level of banks being ordered to suspend their divi, preferreds and hybrids would probably not be so covered.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
HUI up nicely today.
With word coming out of the White House briefing of an August timeline according to models, we've got a long way to go.
HUI?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. BUGS stands for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. It is also referred to by its ticker symbol "HUI". The HUI Index and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index takes into account only gold mining stocks whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver producers.[1] The Gold BUGS Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The HUI Index was developed with a base value of 200.00 as of March 15, 1996. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index currently consists of 15 of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies.[2] Since bottoming in late 2000, HUI went on to be the top-performing US stock sector of the decade, rising by about 1600%.[3]
That's an excellent stock...like a mutual fund of gold companies. Funny how it went up today considering the price of not only gold, but other metals is trending down. I just read some opinions on that...concern that governments around the world may sell off portions of their gold reserves to cover the virus cost, investors selling their gold to cover losses form other things.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Also, could be that investors are selling their gold to raise more cash for buying stock, eh? Who knows...hard to tell. But this is a great looking stock anyway...if I'm going to invest in gold this is probably the way to do it. I'll be keeping an eye on this one. Pricey, but the home of this has been between $250-$300.
Ah, I see. I don't follow gold, but when I check, it's usually GDX for the miners and a Kitco price chart for physical.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Since HUI is an index, it's likely .HUI or ^HUI on whatever financial site.
I mostly use TD and HUI works on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Bought VSTO yesterday morning, sold at about 8:30--+40% trade
Bought again yesterday afternoon, looking to sell this morning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
Yesterdays rally was impressive but I wasn't in (HUI)
I need a breakout below 131.12
Then I'll be looking to buy.
Hopefully in the 114-117 range
Out--+4.5% on 1/2Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7