MLB suspension is in. Next will be the end of the school year nationwide.
Level of fear selling to accelerate tomorrow.
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MLB suspension is in. Next will be the end of the school year nationwide.
Level of fear selling to accelerate tomorrow.
So what's the verdict? Another -2,100 day tomorrow?
That would get us to the low 19,000's...
Who is ready to buy big? When does it hit the bottom?
^ I'm not ready. We need to see capitulation. When you personally are ready to say, "Geeze, maybe things will not return to normal any time soon," sick to your stomach, I will not buy, maybe never again, it's over, country and markets are potentially finished-- that's the low. At least in terms of index buying. I will stick pick off names that seem too cheap. Say food, the bank preferreds, or some bond CEFs that sell off well below NAV. Just throwing food names out: ADM, BG, CAG, TSN. Muni CEF names, looking for discounts to NAV of 20% or 25%: MUC, MYC, VTV, and others.
There are too many big negatives. 1, the shutting down of society and economic activity. 2, the oil shock, since we're now a net exporter with the largest production in the world. 3, a media and political party seeking to damage the economy. 4, fear of a virus is a different level from losing some money.
Long term risk has ratcheted up as well. The Dems are seeking to enrich govt and increase its power. Which will dampen long term economic dynamism. Biden's chances improve every day as well.
Ugly time. Just a month ago Sanders was sailing and things looked very good. Not now.
Overnights will dictate. If the Fed's announced massive purchases do not effect some sort of rally, we're going to see a record 10%+ fall tomorrow I think. When an emergency rescue fails, despair deepens. We'll be in the 18's.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
I know I posted on Sunday night 20k by Fri, but below 20k is a shock even to me. Stunning times.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I don't want the cigar and I don't want a pat on the back. I'm sick about all this. Profoundly damaging setup for the country going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
I think there are good odds we rally tomorrow off the fed Trillion.(didn't hold today)
Monday, after a weekend of higher numbers of cases---continue down...
Make no mistake--this is not a bear market--it's much, much worse.
I put a bit more into funds today, a 30% discount.
I'll continue to the low.
So far not. Futures off 1%.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
In the afterhours:
AAPL -3, MSFT -2, GM -2. Big oils holding.
The idea of the Fed pumping liquidity isn't going to help, imo. This isn't a liquidity crisis like 2008. There is enough money floating around. It's just people don't want to put it anywhere at the moment.
I am...and this time I won't be nearly as conservative as I was in March of '09. I've know for two years that this was going to happen. People are cashing in big time and when things level out, they'll buy back in big time.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
In '09 there were a lot of concerns...a new prez was promising to "transform the country" (whatever that meant?), the mortgage crisis was unprecedented and the media hyped it as the New Depression. This time, the economy is in great shape, the pro biz prez is virtually assured re-election and the media hype is recognized for what it is.
Just waiting....when the overnight futures start looking better then it'll be time to bite off some chunks. Thing is, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to get in on this market...the big Blue Chips can be bought at steep discount.
I buy and sell thru Charles Schwab...it's cheap, easy and they do a fine job.
Very reasonable take and you'll do fine. It's not necessary to buy at the absolute bottom to do well. 2008 was an actual financial crisis, yes. This is a fear induced, damage to earnings crisis.Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
Just that I'm a greedy SOB and want to maximize by buying at the bottom.
Hey man, I'm GREEDY TOO!! oh yeah.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I reckon this one is going to have a hard bottom and won't yo-yo significantly when it starts going back up. I love it...as I considered what happened in '09 as a possibly once in a lifetime opportunity. But no, this is certainly a second time around. It's great...it's an opportunity for normal folks. Forget lousy savings rates...this is where the action is.
BTW...I like your picks and analysis...some of those are on my radar. Keepin' an eye on things!
Morgan Stanley Recommends Buying Stocks Right Now
This bold article stands out in stark contrast from the doom and gloom.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1028991295
Daily Shiller PE post.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...81a4756a5e.jpg
In 08/09 we crashed to a 15x multiple. Still 1/3 down from here to there. I wouldn't expect more than that. Which would be 50% down from peak.
Futures bouncing between 0 and -1.5%. They've been remarkably accurate the past few days, though I didn't see what last night's numbers were in advance of today's -10%.
The only problem with trying to time this low is----It may bounce up just as quick as it's dropped.
I'm a trader and have a great program for buying lows BUT----
When I market stays oversold, the accuracy is not as good.
I've started scaling back in, the low should be between here at -30% and -50%
We are in un charted territory, the market has NEVER dropped this fast, EVER.
I get the feeling that when the fear subsides, we will be in un charted territory again, on a rally.
Don't miss the rally.
THey all say buy the dips but they all are full of schiff, no one knows how, so unless you can profit from bold claims, making them is silly.
If I recall, futures were around -7% before today's carnage.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
The fact that it's only down 0 - 1.5% is an encouraging sign.
I'm reiterating that I believe the low to be somewhere between 15,000 to 19,000. (Yes, I know it's silly). :mrgreen:
-3% now (700 pts), so looking poor, especially on the "up to $1.5T" Fed repo announcement.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
My call is around 15k, 50%. Your numbers aren't silly. Standard historical market valuation aside from the virus is 15k. But I'll still be picking up certain things along the way. I'm leaning food tomorrow. Conagra, Tyson, etc. I'll be studying earnings, debt, and historical metrics tonight.
Decent article here exploring possible lows using technical cues.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...mpfoot_mostpop
Looks like the next target is around 20,745, followed by 18,050.
Good link, thanks. I'm looking at the refiners, like PSX and VLO, who normally do well with low input oil costs, as they work the spread. Not sure why they've been slaughtered (55 and 60% here) as well.
Futures up 3%. Probably on the news of Bank of Japan buying.
Looks like Friday the 13th will open over 300 points higher. Hopefully we'll get a reprieve before sliding any further. :2thumbs:
I've lost interest in food plays. Just not cheap enough to grab me. Unfortunately, the really enticing plays are all energy. I've got enough in energy and won't risk more concentration there.
I did put in a limit order for BML-G at $17.50, a Bank of America preferred floating rate. It's had some weird price action, yesterday around noon trading down to $17.85 in several transactions, and then trading up to $20.46 a few hours later. Thin float sometimes leads to odd pricing. Going to try to draw the ask down.
It has a floor yield of 3% on par of $25, and yields 4.3% at $17.50. No way will banks be "allowed" to go under, and these preferreds are therefore considered extremely safe. So the yield is decent for such safety. When calm returns, it, and the other similar BofA preferreds, should work their way back to $21 to $23 or so. This one less since most others have a floor of 4% on par.
These preferreds were single digit worthless in the 08 crash and rallied hard over the years. Were incredibly lucrative to be in. I keep going back to them when they sell off into the teens.
Attachment 94218
Attachment 94219
Bought and sold VSTO a number of times in the last week.
It's been a great producer.
Was up over 8% yesterday while the dow crashed.
Up big again early this morning.
For a $5 stock it has wide daily swings.
Just made another 7.6% on VSTO
In 1 1/2 hrs
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...not-investment
That is the finest strategic market analysis I've ever read. In 12 years of hard core investing. I highly recommend reading that.
Are you trading or holding?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
I hold mutual funds ( I have buy and sell signals for them)Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
I trade individual stocks, don't like holding over night but do on occassion.
I just dumped $30k into stocks this morning.... if that doesn't cause the stock market to tank nothing will....
:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:
But low... Sell high....
Hilarious, good one. Hell of a morning to pick- the "Midaice touch" we'll call it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Massive rally during Trump's press conference late. It was a Tour de Force, marshalling private industry and waiving laws. Market loved it. Could mark the low.
Or an explosion in spreading could make it a pause. No idea.
Curious what Monday will bring. I could see it either being an extension of today's late rally or a pullback en route to the sub-20,000 range mid week.
It'll probably be the latter since Ice dropped a bunch of cash into the market. :mrgreen:
30,000 by July
I predicted when this first began that we'll be back over 28,000 by September and I'm still sticking to that.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
FWIW - This is killing some companies like travel and is a bonanza to others like supermarkets.
Nice move...I'm going to put more than three times that amount in, maybe more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I've got a list and will also be adding to it this weekend. If the futures look good very early Monday morning then I'll pull the trigger. I'll be investing in 10-15 stocks.
My strategy is to buy and hold...worked very well for me from '09-'15. I set a target price for each one when I'll consider selling...in other words, if I buy a stock at $5 and it rises to $8 I'll take a hard look at it...so some of these that I buy may only be in my portfolio for a week, others maybe a year or more.
There's a whole lot to choose from now...I would encourage even those who've never done this kind of thing to move some money to a brokerage house (like Schwab) and just go for it...start small if you're nervous, a few hundred or a few thousand. Buy and sell one or two stocks just to get the hang of it. Unless a really stupid move is made, you'll earn a lot more on that money than if it was sitting in a bank. MANY major companies are at a big discount right now...Wells Fargo, for example.
I believe as well that the market will shoot back up by thousands of points in the coming months...a lot of this easy money will dry up.
You all are gutsier than I am. I will not put large amounts in for quite some time. Just too much risk of large numbers of infections driving fear higher, imo.
You might be rewarded handsomely making a bottom call now. I still suspect we're going 15k-ish on the djia.
Every day brings news and thoughts. My current thinking is, fear and lockdown continues.
Until we see tens of thousands of cases and the (absolutely coming) tens of thousands of recoveries, fear will rise. As the trickle of recovery stories becomes a flood, the tide will turn.
Numbers out of Open Table are sobering. Massive drop off in restaurant traffic. We might see a domestic travel lockdown, which is going to bash us into a deep contraction for at least a quarter. I think we bottom in 4 to 6 weeks.
Nah...I'll make the bottom call when I feel the time is right. It might be this Monday morning, or it could be weeks from now before I drop a single dime.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I was working today listening to the radio...a couple dudes that have a "market watch" program on Saturday mornings for an hour. They're financial advisors promoting their business but have some pretty good insights when they venture off script. One of them pointed out that when the market has a bad Monday, it ALWAYS rebounds on Tuesday.
Interesting to see what the next few weeks brings...but I'll tell you what, there's a lot of folks that are just itching to buy in, and when they do, I think it'll start moving upward again. I think it'll happen quick, too...like, within a week the money coming back in like that this big slide will be over.
That's a key reason to not sell if you've already suffered losses. You easily miss the very early sharp updraft on recovery. Missing those gains greatly reduces your overall returns.Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
I'm still nibbling. I'll grab some small share counts next week.
I’ve got a feeling it will come back quick. The economy had an awful lot of momentum, confidence and traction. It won’t be easy to keep it down. This is just my senses and gut feeling. Also my hope too.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets." -Warren Buffet
#Fart#...it was actually Baron Rothschild that came up with that one...many years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Quite a coincidence that Trump's youngest in named Baron, eh?
Here's a good quote from Mr. Buffett..."It takes 20 years to build a good reputation and only 5 minutes to ruin it."
Great advice, hard to follow.