Last hour is important. If this selloff continues, -2000 now, into the close, tomorrow is likely to be terrible.
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Last hour is important. If this selloff continues, -2000 now, into the close, tomorrow is likely to be terrible.
Speaking of which, I actually tallied my on-hand total last night. I have 26 rolls! I bought a Costco 30 pack about a month ago unrelated to all this, just timing. So I'm set!Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Soooo...down 2,000 today, down another 2,000 tomorrow puts us at 21,800. At that pace we could land somewhere around 16,000 - 19,000 by Friday.
At which point, next week has to give a reprieve or we're flirting with 10,000 -- a full 2/3 drop.
I don't know how to play a virus fear. Consumer discretionary spending, which the above would seem to benefit from, will get whacked if the media relentlessly plays fear up. Which is their goal. We have to keep in mind, we have half the country and 95% of the media pushing the market down, trying to induce as much economic chaos as possible. This isn't a normal correction scenario. Unless that is your idea? Arms plays on doomsday.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
It is possible and would return the market to historic norms.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Attachment 94190
Pretty much beats the "crap" outa toilet paper futures.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
VSTO is holding steady.
discretionary is in the eye of the holder.
Mercifully won't close down 2000. Psychological barriers are important characteristics of fear driven bear action.
^ Prediction
What is VSTO's mainstay biz?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
ammo, bullet components, outdoor gear.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
camp chef,cheep ass riflescopes, biking gear, etc, etc
Click brands
https://vistaoutdoor.com/
MLPA closes down 29.8% :eek2::eek2:
Tough to pick a winner amidst the carnage. Even CODX, a Utah company researching a Coronavirus vaccine closed down 24% today.
Well, no. Bad omen. We had a 500 point rally from approx -2150 to -1650 in about 60 mins, but the last 20 or 30 gave up approx 400 to close -2013. Lot of people coming home tonight who weren't seeing the signs last night and didn't expect this will be spooked. I expect the momentum into the close to continue in the morning, with the added downdraft of retail investor selling, on top of the added psych blow of "2000" the media will gladly emphasize tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
The top losers are all energy, as you'd expect. Breathtaking losses.
Attachment 94191
^^^Wow!! Those are staggering losses!! :eek2:
Several of these won't survive, and will eventually succumb to bankruptcy or buyout.
I just want to know which TP and hand sanitizer manufacturer to buy stocks in.
And just like that, Obama isn’t claiming any responsibility for the stock market. :ne_nau:
Attachment 94192
https://babylonbee.com/news/obama-wa...e-stock-market
Quote:
Originally Posted by BasinCruiser
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) $141.32, -3.51%
Proctor & Gamble (PG) $116.06, -4.60%
Costco (COST) $301.98, -3.01%
TP is Koch Bros (private), P&G, and KMB.Quote:
Originally Posted by BasinCruiser
Purell brand hand san is privately held. Makes of rubbing alcohol, I'm unable to determine quickly. Might be too common and distributed to track.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...977b958d3b.jpg
"I get nervous when people get greedy; I get greedy when people get nervous." Warren Buffett
I wanted to buy mountain house but it appears a non public company.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Beautiful quote.
And there's a lot of nervous folks out there right now...
Indeed, so am I. Haven't bought any yet, but I'm going to. It's Ford for those of you that may be wondering.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
https://www.laredopetro.com/news-and...sentation.aspx
LPI, whacked to sub-$1. But I'm seeing no debt coming due until 2023, and a large % of sales hedged. Potential name to rally.
Pages 17 and 18.
Attachment 94197
Attachment 94198
http://www.parsleyenergy.com/investo...s/default.aspx
PE, whacked 70% YTD. Pages 14, 17, and 25. Minimal near term debt, decent % hedged at around $45/bbl by my estimates. Not sure if I'll take a nibble on either of these, but I'll certainly watch them to see if my hunch plays out over the next several months.
Both of these plays are only hedged through end of 2020. I wouldn't expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to be able to keep the price war going that long, both need money. But who knows.
Attachment 94199
Attachment 94200
Attachment 94201
Futures pointing to decent open. Some good news out of Wuhan. Dollar rallying vs the Yen specifically.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...c0cf4d5c78.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4ae9138827.jpg
+110% today.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
The market is looking for manageable debt in oil, believing bankruptcies and consolidation are coming. Sadly a good chance this marks the beginning of the end for small US shale as the dominant producer in the world. Not because of prices alone, but the boom-bust cycle potentially twice happening is going to make financing awfully hard (read: expensive) to drum up for a third cycle.
For lenders, when the threat of Saudi pumping and dumping on a whim exists and has now happened twice, it's no longer just a threat.
Modest +13% today.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
Wed looks like -500 on the open.
Attachment 94207
Corona hysteria is spreading. More rate cuts, giant tax and spend deal from Congress in the works, even more upped pumping from the Saudis announced today, Olympics cancellation on the table, larger lockdown in Italy.
1/2 the country and the media want the market to crash further. It will crash further.
This is more likely than not.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
In the end it might actually help Trump.
Past Presidents would have thrown there hands in the air, some might have even wondered what magic wand someone might have.
That magic wand is a complete understanding of business and capitalism.
Trump won't let the economy tank like the dems and fake news are doing to the stock market.
The underlying basics are still sound and strong.
GDP rose in 2019, over 2018.
Job numbers keep gaining and unemployment keeps dropping.
The markets are on a historic 11 year bull run.
It was to be expected to have a correction, a historic one at that.(in terms of % of daily decline)
It would be easy to turn bearish here but Trump is the kicker--he has a magic wand...
I would venture a guess and only a guess that with this historic drop may come a historic recovery.
This President is active and knowledgeable about the free markets, he doesn't throw his hands in the air and say get used to it, jobs aren't coming back.
-800ish to open
Today's carnage:
DJIA
Attachment 94208
S&P 500
Attachment 94209
Tomorrow shaping up for -1000. I do believe we'll hit 20k soon.
Bottom is hard to call. No broad selloff is normal and predictable, but this one especially so. My gut tells me we're going to 15k. Just a Shiller PE call, really, as the multiple will be on greatly reduced earnings.
Remember, it's not what you think will happen, it's what everyone else thinks will happen that matters.
Nostra-gremlinQuote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
This prediction was made on 2/25, and the panic selling has only intensified.
Give that boy a cee-gar.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
-1500, so far this morning
and dropping
I mentioned this once before.
Historic, daily rate of decline;
1929---.67%
2020--.96%(as of 3-11
first circuit breaker
Going to get very ugly. We haven't scratched the surface on a societal lockdown to the level of Italy's. More shoes to drop. I suspect MLB delaying the season start for a few months is next. Then mass college campus closings. Etc
The drip of news is worse for the market, vs all shoes on one day.
I'm watching bank preferred shares. For example, BML-L, BML-H, etc. In the 2008 crisis they were rocked, to low single digits in many cases. I'll start getting interested in the mid teens.
20k by tomorrow I'd think is reasonable. I see no reason for any kind of rally.