I always look at it this way..... 30% chance of rain=30% chance of getting swept away to my death.....I shall pass when the forecast calls for this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spokey
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I always look at it this way..... 30% chance of rain=30% chance of getting swept away to my death.....I shall pass when the forecast calls for this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spokey
I have only been to a couple of meetup groups, both times were climbing, and it was the irresponsible leading the blind. I wanted to climb so I went against my better judgement of "I don't think these guys know what they are doing"...... I was dropped and decked while on top rope both occasions... never again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Home-made pancakes for breakfast this morning. Walnuts, maple, real butter. Yummy! The only thing that could have made it better? Buckwheat.
I am also curious about the dynamics of a meetup group, especially w/respect to risk management. How is participant ability / preparedness assessed? Or is it? How does the assessment (if there is one) get done? How does the group decide who goes where, who doesn't go at all, or whether the trip runs at all? What equipment to bring, etc.? I need to get out on one of these meetups sometime and see what is happening out there. Obviously!
Not exactly. :facepalm1:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spokey
First, unlike the stock market, past weather performance IS indicitive of future results. Computer modeling has its limitations and is no replacement for common sense. Closely studying the satellite images and observing the "pattern" is FAR more useful than relying solely on a guesstimated 30/70 prediction.
Torrential rains over the past 7 days? All the Zion canyons are closed? Roads washing out? Noah pleading with you to board his ark? ... Primitive people would call these "signs". Signs to stay home.
I had Saturday, Sunday and Monday set aside for canyoneering with friends. All day Thursday and Friday we closely (and independantly) watched the forecast. We all came to the same conclusion of "Hell no!", then stayed home. Foresight was 20/20.
So... I'm amazed any of you crazies were in the North Wash on Saturday. I don't feel bad for any of you, because all events were predictable and avoidable.
Second, the flash flood video in this thread SUCKS!! Am I the only one that was screaming "TURN THE CAMERA AROUND!" while watching?? Even your own mothers don't want to see your faces when a flash flood is happening on the other side of the camera. Get your priorities right the next time you go flashyoneering! :nono: :haha:
Bob
It looks like we hurt somebodies feelings as the video has now been set to private. So on behalf of all Bogley members I'd like to apologies...Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
We're sorry if we hurt your feelings for calling your actions stupid.... we thought you already knew...
:popcorn:
I too have never been to a meetup - or rendezvous - have no desire. I do have friends who have gone to Rends. I ask them the same q's Hank just did. Their answers are basically: it's all confusion - with little or no assessment on who, or what, or abilities. Canyons take way longer to complete cause of large uncoordinated groups with vast levels of competence. And it has a sense of a big fun social event with old/new buddies WHILE we are lead thru a canyon. Their stories scare me straight away from ever joining. (plus I don't want to camp, and do canyons, with 50+ of my new best friends - that's just me) Frankly I am amazed there aren't MORE accidents. My friends go because 1) they want to do canyons and don't want to lead, or have info to do on own. 2) meet other canyoneers 3) social aspect b4, during and after. What seems to be a good idea is not well thought out - especially when doing a possibly dangerous thing like canyons. Canyons are NOT like hikes or bikes, or skiing, etc. So I do understand the popularity of these things - but for all the good intentions IMHO it is not conducive to safety at all. And unless a Leader or small group of leaders take charge of each individual meetup/rend to organize and assess, this will be an ongoing issue. That is a real easy forecast!!Quote:
Originally Posted by hank moon
That's too bad. We all learn from each others mistakes and seeing the video is a teaching moment for many, regardless if the event was avoidable or not by the party involved.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Even the most experienced Canyoneers have made mistakes, as mentioned in this thread and others. This thread has seemed pretty balanced to me.
Someone was able to get video of Saturday's flood in progress at Sandthrax campground. Don't know if this was the peak of the flood or not, but it's obviously pumping a large amount of water into the camp and you can see how it's ripping out the entrance road by the Irish Canyons sign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzamkmEhEMo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzamkmEhEMo
Actually.... in weather forecasting a 30% chance of rain means that 30% of the area being discussed will receive rain. Which is kinda the same thing and kinda not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spokey
Bob - I’d say on behalf of the entire group were not asking for your sympathy.
To the others who have brought up meet up groups and others similar groups I’d say those are fair criticisms that do have merit. I’d say that group psychology was likely a factor in us deciding to go that day. We all met prior to leaving and the weather was not discussed for any length of time nor debated as it should have been. We made it a point to get out early as we didn’t want to start late. Had we waited a few hours this would have never occurred and I might have even been able to save my tent assuming we stayed in camp.
I have gone on many group trips and for me at least the positive experiences have outweighed the negative ones. I’ve made some great friends and shared some amazing experiences. One thing that I have always enjoyed about group trips is teaching someone a new skill, seeing someone overcome a fear, and experience something new. In that moment you feel their energy and sense of accomplishment.
I am evaluating if I will ever go on a canyonering trip in a group like meetup or others again. Perhaps the risk and danger are to high with canyoneering. I know I would not be able to live with myself had someone died. I Know I speak for everyone when I say we have learned from this. My hope in sharing on this blog is others will learn from it too.
If anyone is wondering/curious, here is an exact cut and paste of the weather warnings that were posted for Hanksville at least as early as Thursday. It was posted Thursday through Sunday exactly as it appears below.
"DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE
FLOOD WARNING AREA...MANY IF NOT ALL OF THE WATER COURSES ARE
FLOWING AT OR NEAR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS INCLUDES SLOTS...DRY
WASHES...SMALL STREAMS...SMALL RIVERS AND SOME OF THE LARGER RIVERS
IN THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN COVERED BY DEBRIS AND FLOOD
WATERS AS THE FLOODED STREAMS AND RIVERS CROSS STATE HIGHWAYS. IN
SOME CASES BOULDERS THE SIZE OF CARS HAVE BEEN DEPOSITED.
BURN SCARS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEBRIS FLOWS
AND DAMAGE ROADWAYS AND BRIDGE STRUCTURES.
MANY OF THE MORE FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS NATIONAL PARKS AND
MONUMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLOOD WARNING AREA ARE ALL
FLOODING DUE TO THE NATURE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FALLING OVER VERY
IMPERVIOUS SOILS AND STEEP GRADES. THESE AREAS WILL BE FLOWING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING.
PLEASE BE VERY VIGILANT IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN OR AROUND THESE
AREAS. TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY."
Anyway, as mentioned before everyone makes mistakes. I think we all have, so it doesn't do too much good to dwell on it.
Avalanche warnings and flash flood warnings are something to take seriously or to keep current on, since unlike other dangers, there isn't that much you can do if you ever get caught in one. I've seen them both, but never been caught in one. It's a pretty awesome thing to watch from a safe distance.
this is the sky before we dropped in
Attachment 69422Attachment 69423:eek2::eek2:Attachment 69424Attachment 69422Attachment 69430Quote:
Originally Posted by Canyon Dog
The lesson to be learned here is no groups should have been out canyoneering last weekend. I don’t care if it was only 30% chance, a little research would have revealed that there was a high change of flash floods across Utah. We need to change the canyoneering roulette mentality. This trip should have been called off before anyone drove to the North Wash.
It is too easy for us once we have committed to drive down there to say I will just make the judgment call when I get to the top of the canyon. Is a group really going to hike back down after driving to the North Wash and also hike up to the top of the canyon? The only way they call it is if they see an imminent thunder storm on the horizon.
It sounds like a number of groups were out in the North Wash and my guess is at other locations across Utah. We need to change the canyoneering roulette culture. I have learned from my mistakes in the past to do the right canyon in the right weather, with the right team, with the right technical experience and equipment, with the correct daylight. Anything else has the potential to lead to trouble. This trip should have been called off before anyone left.
canyon69, thanks for posting these pics. It is now much more obvious that our assessment of the sky and my memory of such was lacking. While we are below the rim here, we are still above the technical slot section where it would have been much easier to avoid the floodwater. While we were in full sun on the rim, the building clouds can be seen in these shots.Quote:
Originally Posted by canyon69
Not really shocked to hear Tom say such hateful things. Over the years I've come to expect these things from him and I knew coming into this thread he would be all over it. An old guy who lives alone and never gets laid? Heck I would be mad at the world and have sand in my vag too. :lol8:Quote:
Originally Posted by ratagonia
I am kinda shocked though at the number of people agreeing with him. I think Hank really had the best approach, if people are out there being dangerous, the best idea is to reach out and help them. Bashing them and ragging da skillz not really gonna help.
Jesus. I'm no meteorologist but those look like they are getting ready to drop some MF rain. Plants are all green, soil looks saturated. Looks like a flash waiting to happen. Your post should have read 'before we decided not to drop in'. Glad it turned out all right for the most part. Sucks when things go bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by canyon69
somebody has some personal issue here not related to the topic:roll:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathcricket
I don't know, DC...looking at the pictures and hearing about the forecast seems to add up to major brain fart to me. Of course some folks are going to pile on...certainly you don't expect EVERYONE to come in all nice and cuddly coo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathcricket
For any of you that may have been involved in this, try not to take what is said here personally...ya screw up, ya get slapped around for it and learn. It's all good, especially that no one got hurt...most everyone on this site is really cool, even if they (and myself) gets a bit rough sometimes. Everyone is welcome, as I see lots of new members chiming in on this. Don't worry about Tom, he's a bit more bark than bite.
Come around more often, as this is a regular occurrence...adds a bit of spice to the proceedings and I'm all for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by canyon69
I think you mean "especially that no one died"... because people did get hurt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Which I believe is one of the reasons the criticism is kinda harsh, that combined with the fact this is not the first injury incident involving this group this year.
:cool2:
I was part of the beer tasting and canyoneering trip as well. At this point my thoughts are with the three victims and their families. I hope they recover quickly and come back to play and see us at another beer tasting!!!!
This is not to criticize anyone - just some events that make me pretty sad. People were coming back at the destroyed campground and ended up trying to clear the campground of cars and derbies and fix the road out. About 2 hours however passed while the victims were about 15 min away from the road with insufficient help. We had so much manpower that we could have quickly carried the 3 victims out safely and, bring dry clothes and medicine to them. Instead we were thinking that the SAR team wants us out of the canyon and not to interfere. There was no SAR team. Two hours later the victims are coming out with near hypothermia, victim 1 was being carried out but victim 2 was carried out by victim 3. Lack of information, confusion and shock took the better of us and we did not provide enough assistance to the victims .. it just makes me so sad that they were 15-20 min away from the road and we left them to struggle out on their own pretty much. I know some people went in and helped but in my point of view that was not enough help.
So what happened to the victims? Did I miss that part of the story? Would love to hear what happened.
My understanding is that two were stemming out about 30-40 feet high and slipped / fell in the raging water and sustained leg injuries. I think the third victim just sprained ankle somehow.
I provided a detailed account yesterday.
The 3rd injury was unknown to me. I believe that one of our guys who left to find help for the 2 injured ladies sprained his ankle while rushing out.
+1 to this. I would say most of us have done something we shouldn't have and, through luck, we are still here to write about it on the internets. Hearing "You are so stupid! Why did you do that?!?!" Helps to beat in a lesson. If everyone said "Wow, that was cool! Check out all that water!" It would only make people go out again in the same conditions, this time with worse consequences.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthre...524#post543524Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
I know how it happened, because I have seen it happen just like this more than a few times. The storm did not blow in from anywhere else, it formed right on top of the Henry Mtns.Quote:
Originally Posted by Canyon Dog
Thunderstorms form when air is rapidly lifted to and above an elevation that is below the dew point. This can happen from rising warm air, which is the method that most of us are familiar with. It's hot out, the humidity is high, and moist air gets lifted to an elevation where water droplets (or in many cases, ice) must form. These water droplets are heavy and cool, so they sink rapidly. This forms the downdraft side of the convection cell. When the downdraft hits the ground, it fans out along the land surface. This is the cool, gusty wind that you feel when near (especially when about to be overrun by) a storm cloud.
In addition to this basic way that thunderstorms form, there are several other varieties. One is an orographic thunderstorm. These form as winds force moist air up the windward side of mountain range. Anyone that climbs fourteeners is familiar with this type of storm. It doesn't matter that you can't see any clouds between you and the western horizon. If the conditions are right, the storm will form right on top of you out of clear air. This is the reason that peakbaggers get up at the butt crack of dawn or before and plan on being back below treeline before noon.
This exact phenomenon happens routinely on the Henry Mtns. My observation on the Henrys is that the storms do not just rain on the Henrys. The storm often forms and then blows off the top of the Henrys and marches off to cause havoc somewhere in the surrounding area whether it be the Maidenwaters, Lake Powell, North Wash, or even the Roost. North Wash is more or less in the middle of "tornado alley" for these Henry-born storms.
On a trip to the area in April of this year, we planned on going to S. Maidenwater. The forecast was clear. As we hiked up the hill from the car, we saw the buildup happening over the Henrys. This caused us to reassess. We decided to go do something farther away from the Henrys so we went to Blarney instead. As we exited Blarney, we could see that the storm had blown off the Henrys and was headed our way. With the Henrys now clear, we drove back over and did Middle Maidenwater. As we dropped in, we could see the storm dumping on North Wash where we had just been 2 hours before.
So, you can see that a little bit of meteorological training goes a long way in making these life-or-death decisions. It is most certainly a tool that you need to have in your toolbox. I am not a meteorologist either, but educating myself on the subject has certainly helped save my bacon more than a few times. My will to live and my responsibilities to family and others requires it.
It is appalling to me that anyone would drop into a canyon with the kinds of clouds that are seen in Canyon69's photos. It does not matter if the decision was made out of recklessness or ignorance. Either way, you have made a decision to endanger yourself, your team, the SAR team, and also everyone's access to these wonderful canyons.
My only comment on meetup groups is that I find canyoneering to have plenty of danger and excitement even in a small group of competent people. I have no desire to ratchet up the risk by going with a bunch of strangers, most of them noobs, and one or two people that (maybe) know what they are doing.
You can see this Phenomenon occur in those cool weather time-lapse videos. The clouds don't have to come from somewhere else, they form right there in no time. Pretty cool to see.Quote:
Originally Posted by canyoncaver
Meetup groups usually contain more beginners than those experienced assessing technical challenges. Everyone’s definition of experienced is going to vary, but I’d say it requires more than what people think.
I think that meeting up to go mountain biking, hiking, or bowling is vastly different than meeting up to go canyoneering or rock climbing. But the meet up websites do not discern this and the organizers/promoters probably do a very good job of painting a lets have fun picture that glosses over the inherent dangers of these activities. The new or beginner participants trust the organizers/promoters.
To conclude, it is my opinion that large groups (in general) in canyons can, may, and do create an atmosphere of security that leads to bad decision making. I would say to the individual looking to engage in these activities that mentoring is essential with canyoneering and rock climbing by someone with broad, deep, and lengthy experience. If you don’t want to be mentored but rather seek an occasional experience, it is time to hire a reputable guide service. That being said there lies moral responsibility with the organizers and the experienced participants of these groups to ensure safety of all, or do not have these types of meet ups.
What type of ratio do these meet-up groups have of noobs vs experienced?
They should be no more than 2 novice to one experienced person. And by experienced I do not mean you took an ACA class last year and have a dozen canyons under your belt. Nothing is worse than noobs leading noobs.
FWIW: My definition of experienced is you have led (not followed) dozens of Heaps, Imlay, Kolob type canyons, you have guided young and old through dozens of easy canyons, and always brought your groups home safely.
I have been to dozens of fests (Bogley fests, Tom fests, Uutah fests, etc) and we never have these issues. Worst injury I can remember is a skinned knee, We are taking thousands of canyon hours, in hundreds of canyons. So why are these meet-up groups having issues? I don't believe it's the strangers doing canyons with strangers. At one time I was a canyon slut and doing slots with new partners every week, I know others of you have done the same thing. We didn't have these issues. So what is the deal with meet-ups? I've never done a meet-up and just curious what dynamics are different and causing problems?
:roflol:Quote:
Originally Posted by Slot Machine
I don't have so much of a problem with people going out and endangering THEMSELVES.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathcricket
My issue is with people going out and endangering other people. Again. And again. And...
Tom
:oops:
No.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Absolutely NOT!
The dudes that created this situation should take it VERY personally. The people that know the dudes should also take it personally to the extent of making sure these guys don't take more noobs out and get them hurt or killed.
I hear a whole lot of denial, and not a whole lot of taking responsibility.
Unfortunately, I do not have a personal relationship with the District Attorney in Garfield County or Mesa County, so yup, it's all bark. Arf arf arf!!!
Tom
Looks like they are planning on going to Ticaboo in October. Those trip reports should be interesting. http://www.meetup.com/WesternSlopeAd...ents/calendar/
Thanks for posting this CD.Quote:
Originally Posted by canyondevil
Doug, @DougInGJCO, thank you for asking permission before using my photo on your site. And thank you for giving credit below the photo. Both common courtesies in the internet world...
Attachment 69433
Tom, I agree with ya...and I'd bet the "leader" of this (and other) debacle feels like crap, especially when he's having to carry his new found hypothermic friend with a tweaked knee out of a mess he led them into. But there's a difference between slapping him around, givin' him a bit of grief and a full on bludgeoning.Quote:
Originally Posted by ratagonia
I think "Dude, what the hell are you doing?" works a whole lot better than spitting "Moron, Idiot, Jackass, Dumb****" in his face. There's no doubt that you'll never want to hike with this guy, but I'd give him a chance...and determine for myself whether he's a fool or just had some hard luck. Certainly though...I'd make damn sure he's following ME.
If nothing else, some folks around here are learning that low, puffy, grey clouds dancing around the Henry's at 9 o'clock in the morning spells trouble.
Byron, instructing me on civility??? What has the world come to! :facepalm1::facepalm1::facepalm1:Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
But your point is well-taken, Byron. Even if the messenger is ... unusual.
Tom
Isn't this an "all-comers" event? My impression is that you guys have a couple of 'experienced' people that take large groups of beginners out.Quote:
Originally Posted by tontwins
True beginners do not have the ability to assume the risk. They have no way of assessing the leadership of the events. Ultimately, they do not have responsibility for their own safety, they rely on the expertise of the 'couple of experienced people' who are nominally in charge, and upon the good judgment of the meetup group organizer.
Now, you may not see it this way; but I think this is a statement of the reality of the situation.
Up in Salt Lake City a few years back, there was an interesting lawsuit kinda related to this situation. Guy invited a gal out on a date to go rock climbing, purporting to know how to do it, to be 'an expert'. He set up a top rope, with the rope just running through the webbing, no rings or carabiners. She fell to the ground got messed up, sued, won. The fact that the guy was married trying to get some action on the side probably did not help his case with a Salt Lake jury.
In that case, it was clear that he had no clue what he was doing, as toproping directly through the sling is CLEARLY wrong.
In these cases, the liability is somewhat less clear. But I can assure you, someone ends up in a wheelchair, you'll end up in court. Juries are sympathetic to people in wheelchairs.
Tom