Attachment 63976
New Yorker 11/26/12 p. 43
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Attachment 63976
New Yorker 11/26/12 p. 43
The financial institutions and the Government and the press create a self-fulfilling "boom-or-bust" situation.
Stock value increases, so the government wail about it. The press catch on; people buy stocks and the stock market goes up and round we go again.
The reverse is also very true; just replace the words "buy" with "sell" and "up" with "down".
All too often we talk ourselves in to a recession.
Break one link in the chain, and we'll have a stable economy.
The stock market has been very good to me the past three month's, that is all....
Tap'n on my Galaxy G3
Actually, it doesn't suck at all. :lol8: I retired 10 years ago when I was 55 and have been loving every minute of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Stock market highs won't benefit Americans:
The stock market had its biggest sell-off in five weeks Wednesday, thanks to more evidence of meager job growth. The official March jobs data come Friday morning as stocks are just below all-time highs.
Don't confuse the record high stock market earlier this week as proof the U.S. economy has healed from the Great Recession. Instead, for many Americans, household budgets remain under significant pressure, nest eggs remain shattered and job security is tenuous.
There was a time when half of American households made more than $52,000 per year, the unemployment rate was about 4.5%, we were paying an average of $2.76 per gallon for gasoline and the stock market was hitting record highs. That's not today. Except for the stock market. But are you better off now versus 2007 when the Standard &Poor's 500 last traded at these levels?
Compared with the fall of 2007, median household incomes have dropped 4%. Home prices are down 16%. And gas is well over $3.50 a gallon. While a new strength for the stock market is worth celebrating, it changes little for most households.
Slow recovery
Sure, America and Americans are showing signs of healing from the deep financial wounds of the Great Recession. Home prices are climbing again. Unemployment is dropping. Even U.S. manufacturing is enjoying a boomlet after a decades of decline. But the real economy is not reflected on Wall Street. After all, it is a market of stocks. And with corporate profits at record levels, who wouldn't want to own a small slice of that pie?
The majority of Americans, that's who.
While the statistic varies slightly from source to source, most surveys suggest roughly half of households have a financial interest in the stock market. Those that do don't have much invested. The Economic Policy Institute finds a third of "small investors" really are small. Very small. They own less than $10,000 in stocks. Though that might be big money to them, it's chump change on Wall Street.
This rising stock market tide is not raising all boats because most Americans aren't more than ankle-deep, if that.
Even so, the halo effect of record high stock prices can't be denied. It's much better living in an economy with an upward sloping stock chart than the cliff dive and subsequent financial devastation that happened between September 2008 and March 2009. Household net worth now totals $66 trillion, driven by the twin recoveries in the real estate and stock markets. Both of those rebounds have been staged with cheap money courtesy of the tally keeper of Americans' net worth: theFederal Reserve.
Lower interest rates
The unprecedented action by the central bank to drive down the cost of cash with lower interest rates has driven up stock prices. Though the virtue of the effort (and its yet-to-be-seen consequences) will be studied for decades, it has succeeded. Mortgage rates are dirt cheap, helping re-inflate housing prices. Companies' bottom lines have ballooned partly because of cheaper borrowing costs. And even the federal government itself has saved hundreds of billions of dollars thanks to low interest rates.
Critics argue that the money created by the Federal Reserve's strategy is phony. But the stock gains partially driven by the effort aren't. It's too bad more Americans aren't directly profiting.
Tom Hudson is the former co-anchor of Nightly Business Report on public television.
In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors.
Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...olumn/2051019/
S&P 500 hits new all-time closing high
NEW YORK -- The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at a new all-time high Monday as investors were buoyed by positive economic reports.
The benchmark stock index topped its April 11 closing high of 1593.37 in afternoon trading, erasing a brief downturn that had shaved roughly 3% off the large-company stock index.
It later retreated but bounced a smidgen back into record territory in the last moments of the trading day. The new closing high: 1593.61, a gain of 11.37 on the day for an increase of 0.7%.
The yield on the bellwether 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.65% Monday, the lowest this year, before rebounding modestly to 1.67% later in the day. The previous low yield was 1.66% Friday, according to Tradeweb.
Bond yields typically fall when traders think the economy is weakening and inflation isn't a danger. Also weighing on Treasury yields: The Federal Reserve's program of buying long-term bonds to keep interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, low
Investors were in a buying mood after a better-than-expected start to the first-quarter earnings season and fresh signs that the U.S. housing recovery remains intact.
The government reported that personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March and the National Association of Realtors said pending contracts to buy homes last month were at their highest level in three years.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 106 points) and Nasdaq composite gained 0.7% and 0.85%, respectively.
Stock price gains continue to be driven by the Federal Reserve's "easy money" policy and a lack of investment alternatives, as bond yields remain at historic lows and commodity prices suffered a major correction in recent weeks.
Gold prices rose 1.1% to about $1,470 per ounce but are still well below the recent peak of $1,803 an ounce hit in late 2012.
On the earnings front, nearly seven out of 10, or 69%, of the 274 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported first-quarter earnings have topped expectations, vs. the long-term average of 62%, according to Thomson Reuters.
Earnings growth for the quarter is trending at a 3.9% rate, up from 1.5% on April 1. Still, Wall Street is uneasy with just 43% of companies topping revenue forecasts, which suggests sales are slowing.
One major Wall Street bull says the market's pause the past few weeks is a sign that the corrective action in the market suggests it is more about it marking time after its sharp run-up, rather than a major price drop.
"We believe investors should stay the course and use near-term pullbacks to add to their positions," says Craig Johnson, a technical analyst at Piper Jaffray.
Johnson sees the S&P 500 hitting 1,700 by the end of 2013, or more than 6% higher than current levels. He also predicts the broad market gauge will hit 2,000 in 2014.
In contrast, Wall Street's most cautious investment strategist, Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo Securities, reiterated today that she is sticking to her year-end target of 1,390 for the S&P 500, which equates to a drop of nearly 13% from current levels.
Part of Adams' hesitancy to commit to stocks has to do with her belief that full-year earnings will come in softer than analysts expect. She is expecting full-year profit growth of 1.5% for the S&P 500, which is far less than the current consensus of a 7.9% gain.
"The earnings outlook continues to dim," she told clients in a report Monday.
On Friday, the Dow closed up 0.1%, to 14,712.55. The S&P 500 finished down 0.2% to 1,582.24. And the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index ended down 0.3% to 3,279.26.
FRIDAY: Stocks end mixed; more earnings to come
Asian stock markets mostly rose on Monday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's interest rate decision later this week. The U.S. government said Friday that the economy expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter, falling short of expectations of 3% growth.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index lost 0.3% to 13, 884.13.
European shares saw gains. the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index was up 0.19%; Germany's DAX 30 was up 0.45%; and France's CAC 40 was up more than 1%.
Benchmark oil for June delivery was up $1.21 to $94.21 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 64 cents to $93 a barrel on Friday.
Contributing: The Associated Press
Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/04/29/stocks-monday-4-29/2120183/
Just noticed that the DOW is over 15K.:mrgreen:
Yeah, it's pretty nice seeing the mutual funds swelling up nicely...but it does me no good right now. I still have 17 years to go before I start tapping into it.
At least it's good for all the folks drawing on it right now...I'm expecting a correction, though. If it's only a thousand point drop, and the trend continues generally upward...
I think the panic selling we saw a few years ago is unlikely to happen again...at least for a long while. I think a lot of people realized they screwed up, dumping stock. I actually went on a buying spree. Kinda funny, on one hand I'm hopeful for the market to rise, but if it were to tank again, I'll be happy to take advantage of it. Buy low, sell high...
I keep getting these crazy alerts from USA Today. Two days in a row! What does it mean? Somebody is making a killing... :popcorn:
Monday: Dow, S&P 500 close at new record highs
Tuesday: Dow, S&P 500, Google close at record highs
I'm up about 20k over the past two weeks.... but that's on paper.... what matters is over the long haul....Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Tap'n on my Galaxy G3
I need to sell some stock. Don't need to buy. Don't need investment advice. Just need to cash in some stock certificates as part of settling an estate. Do I seek a local broker, do I go with someone like Ameritrade, or even with an online outfit. I've never had an occasion to deal with a broker, but I would think based on what needs to be done that I could just go to a "discount" broker and have it get done. Any cautions I should be aware of?
Stocks.... Dropping like a rock..... the big increase from a couple month's ago is gone...
Tap'n on my Galaxy G3
It doesn't seem to have dropped that much.
I don't know what you're talkin'.
Two months ago (April 12): DJIA close: 14,865.06
Today (June 13) as of 11:53 EDT: 15,052.40
Unless you're day trading and missed the 500-point bump in the end of May, you're doing okay.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
nice post!
^^^^^^^^^^^
I smell a spammer.
Just sold stock for the first time in a very long time. Thank you Wells Fargo, and First Security before that!!!! You have been very nice to me with you nice dividend and great run up.
Morgan Stanley, you on the other hand suck!!!!!!
Yeah...I'm thinking about unloading all that Ford stock I bought 4 years ago. If I would have know then where it would be now, I would have invested my life savings in it and I'd be a millionaire many times over. I bought a nice chunk, but chicken out when it came to buying real big...too bad for me, eh? Hindsight, man.
Yep.Quote:
Hindsight, man.
Facebook is now close to $70 a share. Maybe we should have bought some while we were all laughing at it dropping below $20.
http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/24/fac...ign=fb&ncid=fb
Facebook Is Now Worth $190 Billion
http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpr...ings.png?w=738 Facebook is worth more than Amazon. Following yesterday’s earnings report, Facebook shares hit an all-time high in after-hours trading at $75. Price has been very stable this morning as well, confirming yesterday’s pop. Shares opened at $75.96 a share, then set a new record at $76.74. Now, shares are trading at $75.13.
In other words, Facebook’s market capitalization is now around $190 billion, which is above Amazon’s market capitalization of $165 billion.
With $2.91 billion in revenue and earnings of $0.42 per share, the company beat the analysts’ expectations. When you see Facebook’s earnings chart, it seems like there is no end in sight. Facebook is a great example of a tech company that has performed very well since going public.
It could have bigger consequences on the stock market. Investors could become bullish on other tech stocks due to Facebook’s good performance.
Facebook is a much different company than it was when it went public in May 2012. At the time, most of its users were browsing the social network on their laptops, and the company’s ad offering wasn’t as effective as it could be. Now, most users go to Facebook on their phones, and the mobile ads are performing very well.
But if you look back even further, nobody would have thought five years ago that Facebook would be worth more than Amazon, around half of Google and Microsoft. One last number, Facebook is now worth more than eight times Twitter.
NASDAQ Graph dating back to when this thread was started (when it went public) through yesterday:
Attachment 75443
There is no commonsense reason for Facebook to be valued where it is.....
Do some research on the Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble of 1637 and you will understand what is happening with Facebook.
Now if I could just remember the password to my AOL account,
Perhaps it would be smart to buy it now and sell it in two years to double the investment...Hmmm, I'll have to flip a coin and think about it.
Up to $77 a share.
I bought Panasonic a few weeks ago, since they're going to be the primary supplier for Tesla. Not climbing real fast, but its climbing.
FB is nearing $81 a share. Just for fun, any guesses as to when it will level off or drop?
FB is leveling off now
FB down almost 6% today.
If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX). It won't earn you much in the short term, but it's long upside potential is huge. They have a small dividend, and they're trading at crazy lows right now. The next time the economy gets a little shaky Barrick stock will rocket to the moon again.
Here is the problem with the current Facebook stock price.
Facebook is valued at $200 billion.
To give you an idea of how out of whack that is...
Ford valued at $65 billion
General Motors valued at $170 billion
General Electric valued at $147 billion
LG Electronics valued at $10 billion
Samsung valued at $186 billion
Denver Broncos valued at $1 billion
Dallas Cowboys valued at $3 billion
Entire NFL valued at $45 billion
:popcorn:
FB is positioned for a disastrous collapse IMO. Right now it's positioned on an unsubstantive bubble that will implode horrifically when it implodes. Not a question of if...
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0302162109.png
The Nasdaq climbed above the 5000-point level for the first time in almost 15 years on Monday, a milestone that hasn't been achieved since the '90s economic boom.
The rebound underscores the renewed ascendancy of U.S. financial markets following the twin crashes of 2000 and 2008 as well as the repeated U.S. debt-ceiling standoffs in recent years.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-little-changed-ahead-of-data-1425302537?mod=e2fb
Unless they go bankrupt first, which seems possible:Quote:
If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX). It won't earn you much in the short term, but it's long upside potential is huge. They have a small dividend, and they're trading at crazy lows right now. The next time the economy gets a little shaky Barrick stock will rocket to the moon again.
Attachment 78139
According to Macro-axis, there's about a 50% chance of the company going bankrupt within two years. It is either a good time to buy (on the assumption that the economy tanks or begins to tank within two years) or a bad time (assuming the company goes bankrupt).
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/rati...-Of-Bankruptcy
I'm tempted to buy, but not enough to risk retirement on. If they do survive the next few years, I agree that prices will skyrocket eventually.
This is great advise, I just dumped a ton of money into Barrick. Unlike investing in Facebook, Barrick has actual assets that are worth about $40 per share. Most of those assets are in land which never loses value over the long haul as its a finite commodity. So anytime Barrick drops below $40 a share it's a great value.Quote:
If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX)
Not to mention Barrick is world wide company so if gold prices drop they just temporarly close some of their less profitable mines.
In addition Barrick just dumped about $1 BILLION dollars into their new TCM Leach facility and have a back log of three years worth of ore stockpiled to run through the faciclity soon as it's on-line in the very near future. Also the technology used in the TCM project can and will be sold to other mines in the near future.
How do I know all this you ask? Because I did a lot of the design work on the new TCM Leach facility at Barrick Goldstrike.
I'll never understand why someone would invest in Facebook and it's dreams, smoke and mirrors when they can invest is a hard tangible asset like Barrick, GM, Ford, GE.
Your Mileage May Vary.
Yeah I've visited several of Barrick's mines. They really have their $hit together. Vast reserves that are constantly growing, and the technology to recover it. It's pretty impressive.
If they ever get into a position where they're seriously staring down Bankruptcy, Newmont or someone else would sweep in and buy them out.
I was just looking and Barrick currently has something like $1.7 trillion dollars in provable and probable gold, which doesn't even consider the other high dollar mineral reserves.
Facebook stock just hit $100 a share.
Barrick Gold is down to $7.46 a share.
Still, if Barrick is able to ride the low prices before bankruptcy, it could be a good investment move.
FB is nearing $110 per share. I should have bought it when it was $25 a share
Barrick Gold just shut down their Salt Lake City office. It shut down its Perth Australia office as well. It's credit rating is now rated as "junk status". Macro Access is now predicting a 52% chance of bankruptcy.
Any predictions on whether they will go bankrupt or not?
Macroaxis has Apple at a 10% chance of bk. The z-score algorithm isn't foolproof.
Gold is still over 1k an ounce, and that's 5x of when Barrick was operating a decade+ ago. In 2001, gold was around $250 and ABX was trading double today.
That said, the industry hasn't reached capitulation yet. That will happen when a major goes under, and other players pick up the pieces.
Good article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3713...g-barrick-gold
The revision history is showing analyst flow maybe starting to turn:
Attachment 82388