^^^ So this is all just a troll job?
I'm not sure I buy that. :nono:
I think your Trump-hating friend has been whispering in your ear again.
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^^^ So this is all just a troll job?
I'm not sure I buy that. :nono:
I think your Trump-hating friend has been whispering in your ear again.
^^^THIS^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Accadacca's disdain for Trump oozes out of every post. The fact that he appears to be actually cheering for the US economy to fail is just sad.
[emoji631]
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RLOL!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
When it comes to politics, I don’t have a horse in the race. I do enjoy watching you guys get your panties in a bunch, but I don’t remember the last time I posted in a political thread. When I do it’s not because of my stance, but to get a reaction and/or hear others opinions. Or because I think it’s funny. If you can’t appreciate the comedy because you are so entrenched in you own stance, then that’s just sad to me.
Obviously the economy (in my opinion) seems to be the strongest it’s been in many years. Regardless of what the stock market shows or doesn’t show, consumer confidence (in my opinion) has been at all time high for the last couple years and I’m not sure how you could discredit Trump, unless you have ulterior motives.
^^^No... you have a horse in the race, which is why you only ever post the negative. It's obvious who you're cheering for to anyone paying attention... you're not hard to read, as you wear your heart on your sleeve.
My only question from your posts is I can't figure out who you want to crash and burn more... BYU or Trump... but it's obvious your cheering against both.
Ok pops. You are entitled to your opinion. It doesn’t matter who is president. If I see something funny, then I’m going to post it.
As for BYU. I like the team and coaches, but dislike some of the fans. That puts me in a tough predicament.
So basically just the opposite from politics, where you like most the fans but hate the coach.... ROFLMAOQuote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
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Stocks hit a new all time high today.
That is all...
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S&P did
Nasdaq matched old high and dow lagging a bit.
My stock portfolio hit an all time high today.... I'm fat and happy :-)
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S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new records after October jobs numbers beat expectations
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...ata-2019-11-01
correction/pullback/start of bear market, coming soon....
I've gone into cash on my mutuals.
My upside first target was 28,187
close enough for me to not get burned in a drop.
DJIA closes above 28,000.... so much for Accadacca's recession.
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[Ahem] Not the best time to get into mutual funds then, eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Not unless a bear fund
Bonds and precious metals?Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
If you are just Joe Sixpack (or Rock Gremlin) I believe the best strategy is just to invest on a regular basis and not try to time the highs and lows in the market. For example every January since 1978 I've funded my IRA or Roth IRA with the maximum amount allowed and it's now worth over a million. I never tried to time the markets as I believe it's more important to be consistent on investing over the long haul. Not to mention I don't have the time to sit and watch the market every day. YMMVQuote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
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:roll::roll:
I've got two IRAs that I regularly feed - one of which I've been feeding every month since 1998.
I was just curious as to Oldno7's reasoning as to why he believes a bear market is around the corner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
pullback/correction/bear market.
one leads to the other and one never knows the severity.
I don't believe a bear market is around the corner(but it could be)
I strongly believe we are very close to a market top.
Hence, we are due a pullback
from there ????
I'm hoping for about a 2 week drop, we'll see.
I'm of the opinion it's just a risk in an election year. To power the next market upswing, we need Trump and a House majority and a few more seats in the Senate. Then we need the political will and intelligence to cut corp taxes again and roll back regs further.
Versus the downside risk of the communists getting in and enacting whatever. But even with just an admin, they'll go ape on executive regulation.
The dollar index is high. The market all time highs. Ripe time, imo, to take profits and shift to non-dollar assets and non-stock market when in dollars.
As the underlying thinking for me, I'm not confident in the future of this country. 1/2 the pop seems hellbent on socializing the economy. I see little long term hope given the education system, which turns out anti-American, anti-freedom robots.
There are 2 upcoming key factors that will greatly affect the stock market.
1) China deal
2) impeachment
If the china deal completely falls apart, that could cause a huge drop.
Undoubtedly Trump will be impeached by a strictly partisan house.(no affect on market)
Then the senate hearings.(no affect unless removed from office, highly unlikely)
Really nothing special here, just my timing says get out and wait on a pullback to re enter.
IMHO... The stock market will stay up at least until the next election because Trump needs a strong stock market to get re-elected. The President has a bunch of tools he can use to make sure the stock market remains high for the next 12 months, even if it's an unsustainable artificial high... For example Trump can add or relax tariffs among other items...
I subscribe to the same theory. We've seen Trump do this before, and he can do it again if needed. If a Democrat were elected the stock market would take a large step backwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Delete
BOOM! The DJIA just hit it's 100th record high since Trump was elected.
This has never happened under any President EVER!!!
And Trump is a near lock for 4 more years.
Thanks Trump, I might retire early :-)
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Accadacca and the Democrats are going to hate this...
Economy to boom in 2020
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...money-managers
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^^ Oh, lest we forget, just a few months ago it was non-stop in the major media that we were heading to recession. All in an effort to get people to pull back and be frightened, to make it come.
I can't type here what I think of Dems and the media.
I'm incredibly entertained when the dem presidential circus crew says---"I'll turn this economy around"(undoubtedly)
"I'll fix this economy"(undoubtedely)
That is indeed their hope, destroy the most vibrant economy in history.
Why? because democrats can only exist on a promise, they have centuries of unfullfilled ones.
They thrive on the downtroden, the opressed, the homeless, the minorities, all living in poverty.
Wealth and people living in comfort destroys the dems and all they stand for.
So--until they can destroy(fix) the economy,according to them,
there is no civilized need for their failed culture of reee, screeech, entitlement, power trips, etc
misery loves company and misery(dems) are losing theirs.
IT’S OFFICIAL: 2019 Is Greatest Year in Stock Market History – Another All-Time High Today – DOW Up Over 5,000 Points In 2019 Alone
America is in the middle of its greatest stock market rally ever but no one would know it due to the media’s fixation on anything anti-Trump.
The markets showed today that they maintain their confidence in President Trump as the DOW reached another all-time closing high. This was the 124th all-time high since the 2016 election.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...in-2019-alone/
Saturday shopping set a single-day sales record, analyst says
Holiday shopping set records over the weekend, with Super Saturday sales reaching $34.4 billion, the biggest single day in U.S. retail history, according to Customer Growth Partners.
“Paced by the ‘Big Four’ mega-retailers -- Walmart, Amazon, Costco and Target -- Super Saturday was boosted by the best traffic our team has seen in years,” said Craig Johnson, president of the retail research firm.
Holiday shopping set records over the weekend, with Super Saturday sales reaching $34.4 billion, the biggest single day in U.S. retail history, according to Customer Growth Partners.
“Paced by the ‘Big Four’ mega-retailers -- Walmart, Amazon, Costco and Target -- Super Saturday was boosted by the best traffic our team has seen in years,” said Craig Johnson, president of the retail research firm.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...l0P?li=BBnbfcL
Thanks Trump!!!https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...84d0bdb15c.jpg
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^^I was looking at my IRA yesterday and thought the same thing. Thanks Trump. I can only hope for 5 more years like this one.
I'm dreading the day another Democrat gets in the White House. I can't take anymore 1% returns. Also, with all the plans they seem to have, our taxes will rise at least 10% and I won't be able to put anything in my retirement plan anyway.
2020's Best Asset Class https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314261
^ I like this author. The numbers in the article, total market cap to GDP at 150% and CAPE above 30, are historically expensive.
Just be wary. You have to price in risk the Dems sweep. I've been saying this to iceaxe in particular for months. No denying the extraordinary 2019 market, and no reason we can't have this for many years given Trump style Republicanism.
But that risk, where the penalty factor (had to get a canyoneering term in) is so high, isn't zero. And I'd even argue it's 50% ish.
---
Excerpt below
---
Today the ratio of total market cap to GDP is over 150%. Historically that has offered a prospective total return of about -3%. This ratio has never been higher. In March 2000, it briefly touched about 149%, but today’s ratio is uncharted territory. Warren Buffett considers this to be the best measure of the market’s overall valuation. By this measure, the market is unambiguously expensive as we enter 2020.
Another way to look at the US market is its cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings/CAPE ratio compared to its historical CAPE ratio as well as compared with other country markets. Its current CAPE ratio is over 30 for the third time in history – the first peaked briefly in September 1929 and the second peaked briefly in December 1999. In both instances, the ratios (and markets) crashed in the subsequent months.
How does the US compare with other countries around the world? We have the third-highest CAPE ratio and are one of only three above 30. The average among the developed markets is 25. China’s is 15; Russia’s is 8. Other metrics tell a similar story – we have the fifth-highest P/E ratio, we’re the fourth most expensive market relative to our cash flow, the most expensive relative to our book value, and second relative to sales. We have the third-lowest dividend yield in the world. Subjectively, there are great advantages to investing in the US (rule of law, local knowledge, convenience); objectively, you have to pay dearly for those advantages.
So, if we’re looking to underpay for everything we buy, we won’t be adding to broad equity market exposure as we enter 2020. But if not cash, bonds, or equities, then what? We don’t make grandiose market calls but seek bargains
I took my mutual fund money out in Nov.
Put it in a dividend fund.
Have already received 2 dividends+increase in fund.
Feels a bit safer.
It's up about 1,5% in that time.(mid Nov-Dec 31)
A Democratic sweep?!? :roflol::roflol::roflol:Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Damn.... that's so funny I just squirted beer out of my nose laughing so hard.
Not a chance in hell, right now it's questionable if the Democrats will even be able to keep the house.... I pushed my chips all in a year ago and I'm sailing until storm clouds gather on the horizon... Right now it's clear sailing for the foreseeable future... it fact last years head winds (China, USMCA) should be this years tail winds,,,,
YMMV
Indeed. If that guy has any real concerns about that, I'm sure as hell not going to listen to any of his advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
The author I pointed to does not. He just argues against index investing at these elevated values. I'm the one laying out the Dem sweep risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
Has the trajectory of the country changed, in terms of the leftist machine turning out morons? School system, pop culture, mass media, Silicon Valley, mass immigration, age of and consequent death of previous American generations... all still working against us. That's what I'm pointing to. Add in the census showing a shift of a not insignificant number of electoral votes to left wing states.
Too much confidence on our side, methinks.
My movements have been toward diversifying away from stocks. Of my net worth, I'm 40% real estate, 20% bonds, 40% stock. 1 year ago I was 20/20/60 of those.
If you are including real estate that's an entirely different story as that would make up over 50% of my net worth. Add in other valuable assets like the companies I own and my net worth percentage in stocks drops much further... But this thread is on stocks.
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That's a valid point. Though I have rentals and flips in progress exceeding my home value and have been doing hard money lending I'm counting in that. In stocks I've been slowly moving toward more foreign.
Given the high price of US stocks on an index level, the old "priced for perfection" adage comes to mind. I don't like buying anything at such levels. Except Amazon back in the day, where the signs of being an absolute beast of a play look strong.