Stocks

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Originally Posted by accadacca

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:lol8::lol8: Here comes Acca with his doom and gloom.

If you look at a graph of the DOW for the last five years you'll notice that we are riding the crest of an unprecedented stock market winning streak. And all along the way we've had bumps in the road -- occasions when the media tried to paint a bleak picture of the stock market -- only to have it come storming back again.

Attachment 91283


^^^As you can see from this morning's screenshot, the market is bouncing back from those two days of -2%, as predicted.

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

It all depends on what the Fed does tomorrow with interest rates.


Climb-Utah.com

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I agree with Trump on this. We don't need another interest rate hike right now. Obviously there is a recession looming in the next year or two, but we may as well forestall it as long as possible.

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Originally Posted by uintafly

I agree with Trump on this. We don't need another interest rate hike right now. Obviously there is a recession looming in the next year or two, but we may as well forestall it as long as possible.

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Something's gotta give with the high housing prices in Utah right now. It's getting nuts.

Also, historically speaking, it happens every few years so I guess we're due again.

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Originally Posted by devo_stevo

Something's gotta give with the high housing prices in Utah right now. It's getting nuts.

Also, historically speaking, it happens every few years so I guess we're due again.

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Having just gone through the tortuous process of buying a house in this economy I would agree. Things are WAAAAY too expensive and overpriced right now. But I voiced my concerns early and often about this and I was routinely informed that the housing bubble of today is drastically different to the housing bubble of 2008. The difference being that the housing bubble of 2008 was artificially inflated ~~ much of it was realtors and brokers contributing to an artificial inflation, and then the banks willingly agreeing to offer loans to folks to obviously couldn't afford the debt. The bubble of today is created from the economics of supply and demand. The demand is sky high, but the supply on hand is very low. There just isn't a very robust supply to satisfy the current demand.

That said, I too cannot see how the status quo can be sustained. We were looking at dumpy 2 bed, 1 bath 1500 sq.ft. homes going for over $350,000. That is just insane, and it really is not sustainable. I think another big housing correction is looming.

I think so too. I hope so because I hate the house I'm in, but I can't bring myself to pay what I'd have to to get a better one.

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

Having just gone through the tortuous process of buying a house in this economy I would agree. Things are WAAAAY too expensive and overpriced right now. But I voiced my concerns early and often about this and I was routinely informed that the housing bubble of today is drastically different to the housing bubble of 2008. The difference being that the housing bubble of 2008 was artificially inflated ~~ much of it was realtors and brokers contributing to an artificial inflation, and then the banks willingly agreeing to offer loans to folks to obviously couldn't afford the debt. The bubble of today is created from the economics of supply and demand. The demand is sky high, but the supply on hand is very low. There just isn't a very robust supply to satisfy the current demand.

That said, I too cannot see how the status quo can be sustained. We were looking at dumpy 2 bed, 1 bath 1500 sq.ft. homes going for over $350,000. That is just insane, and it really is not sustainable. I think another big housing correction is looming.

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Honestly, in the housing market I don't think we will see a contraction anytime soon along the Wasatch Front. Still more people moving here than we have homes for. I doubt will see the prices rise like they have been, but nothing is going to be getting any cheaper. There is a metric shit ton of new apartment units coming on board in the next 18 months, but vacancies are still at historic lows. I have probably financed $70 million in new apartment construction in the past 24 months and will hopefully close another $20mm by the end of March. Lots of investors are finding it better to build new units than buy old buildings with cap rates so low. Eventually, they will get caught up and things will slow, but I doubt it for another 24 months at least. New home construction will probably be strong for at least that long. There just isn't that much available land anymore. I am financing a subdivision in Davis County and the lots are selling for between $140k-$180k for .5-.6 acre lots. The problem is they literally will all be able to see the Bountiful Landfill from their house, are right next to Legacy and have high voltage power lines overhead. Doesn't matter though. They will be sold out before roads are even complete.

The real issue will be if wages don't keep up, the Wasatch Front could turn into San Francisco, where people can't afford to live here.

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Originally Posted by uintafly

I have probably financed $70 million in new apartment construction in the past 24 months and will hopefully close another $20mm by the end of March. I am financing a subdivision in Davis County and the lots are selling for between $140k-$180k for .5-.6 acre lots.

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Mo' Money Mo' Problems, Amirite?

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Originally Posted by uintafly

The real issue will be if wages don't keep up, the Wasatch Front could turn into San Francisco, where people can't afford to live here.

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Yeah wouldn't that be a trip? Brigham City and Payson looking more and more attractive.

i've been amazed at the number of people that have moved to Brigham in the last 5 years or so that commute to Salt Lake for work. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of that happening in the next 10 years the way things are going.

It sucks because I like the relative lack of crowds and light traffic here. It'll come to an end one day though.

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Originally Posted by devo_stevo

i've been amazed at the number of people that have moved to Brigham in the last 5 years or so that commute to Salt Lake for work. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of that happening in the next 10 years the way things are going.

It sucks because I like the relative lack of crowds and light traffic here. It'll come to an end one day though.

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We looked into Brigham City early on but decided it was too far from SLC....so we moved to North Ogden. :lol8: It's pretty much just as far as Brigham City.

The dude that sold us his house moved to Far West. I couldn't do it -- the mosquitoes are too thick out there since Willard is right next door.

15 minutes is 15 minutes. I understand. If I worked in Salt Lake, there's no way I'd live this far away. I've been spoiled. I basically have only worked 5 minutes away from home at any job I've ever had, so the thought of a long commute just kills me.

The current job is great though. I could go anywhere I want to as long as I've got a decent internet connection. That's made me look into different locations that I would never consider otherwise.

#FirstWorldProblems

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

The bubble of today is created from the economics of supply and demand. The demand is sky high, but the supply on hand is very low. There just isn't a very robust supply to satisfy the current demand.

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BINGO!...we're experiencing the same thing her in Denver. They didn't build jack shit for 5 solid years. Our cities are going to get as thick as they can possibly get.

Prices? I think homes that cost less than 200K absolutely must show up. Starter homes. I think they'll be built out in the boondocks. There has to be a market for couples that make around 120K a year. They want to buy.

If you're single and you make less than 100K and you want to live in the city? You're screwed...insofar as buying a place.

I paid $61,000 for this condo in '93. It's worth nearly 250K right now. I bought 4 others in this complex long ago, all less than 100K. They're rentals. Can't do that now, that's for damn sure.

If I were to advise someone young, I'd say move to a mid/largish city where you can make money and buy a place for less than $175...a condo, a house...and then sit on it, one way or another. Does't take a rocket scientist, just time and having someone else pay for it.

Then again, I know some people that just rent. They've never bought and have a way of managing their money that works for them. Look up "renting vs. buying".

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

Brigham City and Payson looking more and more attractive.

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South Utah County is out of control.

Median home prices:

Payson $354,000

Salem $411,000

Springville $430,000

Although Levan is still a bargain at $229,000,

realtor.com

^^^ That's crazy. Last summer we were looking into Payson and it was hovering around $290K - $300K.

Merry Christmas!!! Lowest point of the year!!!

Dow closes down 352 points after Fed hikes rates

Yup, there's this repeating pattern of the Dow rallying up and then falling back, rallying up and then falling back. This lack of direction occurs when neither the bears nor the bulls are in charge, and is frequently a prelude to a large pullback. I've been predicting this for a little while now. The slide will probably extend into tomorrow, and then stay down during the holidays next week as the market explores a bottom.

The Fed did stocks no favors today...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...79a47e83e6.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...8c746bb994.jpg

Ahhh...everybody's just cashing in. A whole lot of people made a ton of money in the last two years. Junior wants the GI Joe with the kung-fu grip.

Today logged the largest single day gain ever. But beware the dead-cat bounce that may come tomorrow.


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How come Accadacca never stops by to post that info?

Hillary was asking...

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

How come Accadacca never stops by to post that info?

Hillary was asking...

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:lol8: I was wondering the same thing.

After the Dow topped 1,000 I logged on expecting to see a post or two from Acca proclaiming a monstrously bullish day for the stock market and surprised that there wasn't even a blip out of him about the matter.


It's like he's the CNN of Bogley...

One good day isn't a trend. This month is still on pace for the worst December since 1931.

Let's just hope the Trump Stock Crash doesn't lead to the Trump Recession.

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Originally Posted by uintafly

Let's just hope the Trump Stock Crash doesn't lead to the Trump Recession.

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Politically what happens in the stock market doesn't really mean anything right now.... It's what it does in the first 9 months of 2020 that will matter.

YMMV

Want to get rich quick? Buy stocks when they are low and sell them when they are high.....

:popcorn:

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

Want to get rich quick? Buy stocks when they are low and sell them when they are high.....

:popcorn:

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Yes, BUT....


Beware the commissions. Most online stock trading platforms charge up to $10 per trade. Those fees can add up, and cancel out whatever gains you may have made.

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

Yes, BUT....


Beware the commissions. Most online stock trading platforms charge up to $10 per trade. Those fees can add up, and cancel out whatever gains you may have made.

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You need to change brokers as I pay no where near that... Plenty of online discount brokers so you don't get raped with no lube.

YMMV

Climb-Utah.com

Who's your broker? I started back in 2009 with TD Ameritrade...back when stocks were trading at bargain basement prices as a result of the Great Recession. I purchased Ford stock for around 0.50 a share. Great time to jump into the stock market.

But I quickly learned the commissions were juicing my profits and had to back off.

Charles Schwab is where I trade. I believe they are $4.95 a trade regardless of how many shares you trade.

But I don't pay even that as I've had 5 accounts there for over 40 years that now have a sizable balance and some grandfathered commission rates and rules.

Climb-Utah.com

On cue...

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Originally Posted by accadacca

On cue...

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That's predictable, and will not change until the government shutdown is over and the up coming meetings with China are a done deal... in other words talk to me in a month.

Just curious accadacca, what's it like always cheering for your country to lose?



Climb-Utah.com

No cheering, just reporting the facts.

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Originally Posted by accadacca

No cheering, just reporting the facts.

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No... you're cheering...

Climb-Utah.com

So accadacca... if you're not cheering against the US why don't you ever post the positives? Why do you only post the negatives?

Stocks pull a U-turn and soar after jobs report, trade talks
https://www.ksl.com/article/46461289...rt-trade-talks

FWIW - If your beloved Apple wasn't tanking at the moment these numbers would be even higher.

[emoji631]

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800 point rally, Yowza! Next week is gonna be interesting.

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

800 point rally, Yowza! Next week is gonna be interesting.

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If the China talks scheduled for next week fall in the US's favor the stock market should skyrocket.

I hope so as I dumped $50k into stocks on Wednesday.... Buy low... sell high... live the good life... :2thumbs:

Damnit I knew I should've bought a small portion of Sears stock just out of sheer morbid lunacy. I was oh so tempted to dive in for a few hundred shares last week. Too bad I didn't....:facepalm1:


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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

Damnit I knew I should've bought a small portion of Sears stock just out of sheer morbid lunacy. I was oh so tempted to dive in for a few hundred shares last week. Too bad I didn't....:facepalm1:

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Don't worry... you'll get a least one more chance as Sears is swirling around the toilet bowl over the next couple of days.

Since Sears sold off the very profitable Craftsmen Tools I no longer care.

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

Don't worry... you'll get a least one more chance as Sears is swirling around the toilet bowl the next couple of days..

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Yeah but a 30% increase (at one point it was nearing 40%) is tough to miss out on.

Folks should post in this thread stocks they have a hunch will pop soon. Or at least PM me. :haha: