2017 Utah Snowpack

[jman]

Continuing from last year's thread: 2016 Utah's Snowpack (http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthread.php?75510-2016-Utah-Snowpack) , here are the stats thus far.

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It looks like SW Utah is getting pounded. My one hope for my outdoor hit-list (since 2007) is to see Gunlock Reservoir overflowing again, creating MANY waterfalls. Beautiful.

Just for fun, here are stats from last years snowpack, albeit just a week earlier:

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[Scott P]

If this continues, it is going to be a great season for rafting! :cool2:

[Scott P]

30" at Brighton yesterday:

https://www.14ers.com/forum/download/file.php?id=23400

Colorado has also been getting pounded. We had almost nothing at Thanksgiving. Check out the snowpack graph at places like the San Juans:

https://www.14ers.com/forum/download/file.php?id=23401

[accadacca]

So how does this year rank historically?

[jman]

That is a lot!

If this "pineapple express" moisture keeps up, we will be having a great year for the west coast.

And coming from a firefighting background, the more water we have, the more vegetation will grow, and more potential for many more fires. You would think that during a dry year that you would have more fires, but not so. I'll bet the St. George BLM will be busy come summer!



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[Scott P]

So how does this year rank historically?

Really good, but not that close to record breaking-yet at least. The amazing part is that until mid-December snowpack was below normal. Since then, it has been dumping. If it weren't for the slow start, the snowpack would be even more amazing.

Ironically, Montana has much less snow than normal. Normally in La Nina years, Montana gets pounded and places like Southern Utah and Southern Colorado stay relatively dry. This has been a really weird La Nina.

"Normal" La Nina:

http://img6.onthesnow.com/image/la/99/99779.jpg

The Pacific Jet Stream has been pushed farther south than it typically does in La Nina years and the snowfall in the Rockies is mostly an east to west band of locations getting most of the storms. Southern Idaho, Utah, Southern Wyoming, and Colorado have been getting pounded. Montana, most of New Mexico and much of northern Idaho and parts of Washington have been drier than normal. The storm track has been stuck in the same place.

Part of the slow start was due to warm temperatures in the Arctic early season. October, November, and December were extremely warm in the Arctic, when compared to normal. This prevented the Arctic Ocean from freezing over until later than normal, which kept the storm track up north. As soon as the ocean froze over though, it was quickly pushed southward and has been basically stuck in the same place.

Right now, the bulk of Colorado and Utah are forecasted to have equal chances of wet vs. dry weather for the next three months. The Four Corners region however, should typically dry out a bit and the Pacific Jet Steam migrates north, but as said, this has been a really weird La Nina.

[rockgremlin]

How much of that 238% snowpack for SW Utah is located in Gunlock's watershed? I'd like to see Gunlock overflowing too, but the last time I was there (last November) it was waaaaay low. It looked to me like it would require at least 2 - 3 years of above average precipitation to restore it to normal levels.

[jman]

How much of that 238% snowpack for SW Utah is located in Gunlock's watershed? I'd like to see Gunlock overflowing too, but the last time I was there (last November) it was waaaaay low. It looked to me like it would require at least 2 - 3 years of above average precipitation to restore it to normal levels.

I know, it's a fools hope, but man, I sure hope so. The last time it was roaring at full capacity (compared to a a trickle from a few years ago) was April 2006. I know, cause I'm diligent every year in keeping track of the conditions of these falls. Serious, it's a destination spot just for the falls alone in my humble opinion.

The state park use to post current elevation of the lake but that was 10years ago. Now it just says "low". But the latest fishing report from two days ago says "low but rising". So I'm crossing my fingers very hard here.

It's a small lake so it could fill up rather quickly from the snow and rains this spring...but it's a fools hope I suppose.


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[Scott P]

The state park use to post current elevation of the lake but that was 10years ago. Now it just says "low". But the latest fishing report from two days ago says "low but rising". So I'm crossing my fingers very hard here.

It's a small lake so it could fill up rather quickly from the snow and rains this spring...but it's a fools hope I suppose.

The low water could probably lso be attributed to the population boom in that region as well, rather than just the weather. That area has been booming astronomically and the per capita water usage is very high.

[rockgremlin]

I assume you're talking about Santa Clara? Because Gunlock itself is little more than a ghost town that refuses to die...and I think all of the residents might be related.

[Scott P]

I assume you're talking about Santa Clara? Because Gunlock itself is little more than a ghost town that refuses to die...and I think all of the residents might be related.

I meant Southwest Utah in general. I would assume that the water from Gunlock Reservoir goes to more than just Gunlock residents.

[accadacca]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170125/4a0ec024cd5b03568f641caf7ad7dec8.jpg

[accadacca]

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[Sandstone Addiction]

@Scott P (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=213) , where do you find the weather data like the one you show on occasion for Craig? I have searched the NOAA website and it has lots and lots of stuff but never did find the info I'm looking for.

I'm looking for the snow accumulation totals for Salem or nearby.

[Scott P]

I'm looking for the snow accumulation totals for Salem or nearby.

I don't think Salem has an official weather station, but nearby Spanish Fork does. Here's a link where you can find a lot of info on several cities in the region:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=slc

It looks like 41 inches of snow in Spanish Fork so far this month. Impressive!

[Sandstone Addiction]

I don't think Salem has an official weather station, but nearby Spanish Fork does. Here's a link where you can find a lot of info on several cities in the region:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=slc

It looks like 41 inches of snow in Spanish Fork so far this month. Impressive!

That is exactly what I was looking for! :2thumbs: Great info for sure.

The Spanish Fork station should be pretty close to the same conditions at my house.

Thanks Scott.

[jman]

This is current as of today, 2/15/17,

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There's a bunch of storms coming this weekend for nearly all of Utah, so I will capture a post-storm total next week too.

[jman]

As we head into March, it's looking REALLY good for 2017. All above 120% still.

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Compared to March 2016:

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[jman]

That last storm brought up the states percentage a notch or two, especially for SE Utah. And this will be the last post until the next rain/snow storm.

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[rockgremlin]

jman - thanks for continually updating this thread.

I wonder how much Lake Powell will rise this year with the abundant snowpack?

[jman]

jman - thanks for continually updating this thread.

I wonder how much Lake Powell will rise this year with the abundant snowpack?

Thanks. I find it fun just to keep track of.

It's funny that you mention Lake Powell because just today a coworker was mentioning the same thing. I just respond very dramatically with a southern accent with "Lake Powell will rise again!!" (a parody of the saying back from the 1800s - "the South will rise again"). Lol

I wonder what the snotels are for Colorado.... The Colorado, San Juan, and the Green rivers bring large amounts from there.


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[Scott P]

I wonder what the snotels are for Colorado.... The Colorado, San Juan, and the Green rivers bring large amounts from there.

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It takes a lot of snow to raise the lake to HWM. It won't get even remotely close to HWM.

[Iceaxe]

Lake Powell is currently projected to reach 3640' in 2017. Lake Powell reached 3621' in 2016 so the lake will raise 19' this year over last year. Full pool for Lake Powell is 3700' so it will be 60' from being full.

[rockgremlin]

So...another 3-4 consecutive winters like this should get Powell somewhere close to HWM. That's kind of a tall order.

[Iceaxe]

7 years of drought tends to do that to your water supply. Lake Powell is doing exactly what it was designed to do. It was never intended to remain at full pool every year, much to the surprise of many. Also keep in mind there are 15 dams on the Colorado River and they are all experncing similar increases. The system was designed to store water in years of excess to supply water in years of drought.

[Scott P]

So...another 3-4 consecutive winters like this should get Powell somewhere close to HWM.

No. I don't remember the exact figure, but since the lake increases in area as it increases in depth, 60 feet below HWM is only a little over 1/2 full. That would take a lot of water to fill almost 1/2 the lake and more than just a few winters similar to this one.

As far as drought goes, Shane is right that the recent droughts have taken a toll on the lake, but population growth and more water usage is also a factor.

[Iceaxe]

The exact number is 50% of the water in Lake Powell is stored in the top 100'. Something else to keep in mind is full pool is not the most efficient way to store water as the surface area doubles in the last 50', which means evaporation doubles.

FWIW - It took 20 years to originally fill Lake Powell and those years averaged above average snowfall.

[devo_stevo]

All I know is that Lake Mead could use some more water in it. This year should help out with that but I wouldn't hold out much hope of it being anywhere near full still even with the fantastic snow we've had.

Here's what it looked like a few weeks ago.
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[Iceaxe]

Lake Mead should reach 1090' in 2017. It reached 1084' feet in 2016 so that's a gain of 6'. Full pool for Lake Mead is 1229'. Theoretically it's better to store water upstream as it allows more control of how water is distributed. But ideally you will probably see them attempt to bring Powell to within about 50' of full pool and then they will attempt to bring Mead up.

[Iceaxe]

population growth and more water usage is also a factor.

FWIW - In the Western States over 90% of water consumption goes to agriculture. The national average is 80% goes to agriculture.

And if you guys couldn't tell Western State water usage is kind of a hobby of mine as it's something I've always found really interesting. I've done a lot of design work on various dams, including Glen Canyon when the spillway was repaired in 1983.

:popcorn:

[jman]

We are starting to drop in the central part of the state. This week shows a few rain/snow storms across the state.

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Followed by the US Drought Monitor for Utah (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?UT). Utah is now 100% NOT in a drought (according to them).

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[jman]

Our snowpack has increased the past few weeks (especially SW Utah). Here are the current stats:


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[Sandstone Addiction]

Have been scanning pics I took before the digital age and came across these that reminded me of this thread.

I was down to Lake Powell in 1995 for our annual 4th of July trip and while my friends insisted on camping in the Wahweap Campground, I resisted and decided that this time I was going to camp at Lone Rock on the beach.

When I arrived at the beach, the entire shore was packed with campers and tents so I was pretty bummed about not getting a spot that I could watch the waves lap against the shore. So I set up my tent behind everyone and about that time a guy came up to say hello, and to my surprise he told me that every camp on the beach had been moving back 20 feet each day because the lake was raising 9 inches each day and eating up 20 feet of beach. He said in just a few days I would indeed have my beachfront camp spot.

Sure enough, by the end of the week, I had my island all to myself.

Just the right size island.

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One day later.

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[rockgremlin]

^^^ This is REALLY cool!!! Awesome pictures, thanks for sharing.

[accadacca]

19" in 24 hours on April 24th...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170426/bbb513ff6f10c4dfb79cb6634534327c.jpg

[jman]

19" in 24 hours on April 24th...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170426/bbb513ff6f10c4dfb79cb6634534327c.jpg

I really hope there is going to be skiing on July 4th this year at snowbird. Ah yeah....good times.

Edit: that would be a novelty drone video for Sombeech. Him boarding at the bird and July 4th festivities that afternoon in the 90+ degree heat...

Speaking of water....I need to update this thread...


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[tallsteve]

19" in 24 hours on April 24th...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170426/bbb513ff6f10c4dfb79cb6634534327c.jpg

So, what you're saying is the Crest is ready to ride? :naughty:

[accadacca]

So, what you're saying is the Crest is ready to ride? :naughty:

[emoji12]

[jman]

SE Utah....yikes!

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EDIT:

That 2% didn't quite seem right, so I clicked on the SE Utah tab and this is what you are presented with:

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The 3 out of the 6 data points has a "-M" which means "missing data". Therefore those places are counted as a 0%, which GREATLY reduces that average to what we are seeing. But the other 3 locations with data just seem to be a few inches from average. So that 2% isn't right, but it is certainly not normal. It's REAL average is probably ranging from 70-75%.

(Just remember that context matters. And in this case, only 1/2 of the stations were reporting numbers).

[Sombeech]

I really hope there is going to be skiing on July 4th this year at snowbird. Ah yeah....good times.

Edit: that would be a novelty drone video for @Sombeech (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=6). Him boarding at the bird and July 4th festivities that afternoon in the 90+ degree heat...

Speaking of water....I need to update this thread...


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I'd love to get some drone footage from the ski resorts, but most of them have a pretty strict No Drones policy, unless you jump through a few hoops. It's worth looking into though.

[Scott P]

The 3 out of the 6 data points has a "-M" which means "missing data"

This year's data is not missing. It's the average that is missing. This is because those three stations are new and there aren't enough years to compile an average or median.


Therfore those places are counted as a 0%, which GREATLY reduces that average to what we are seeing. But the other 3 locations with data just seem to be a few inches from average. So that 2% isn't right, but it is certainly not normal. It's REAL average is probably ranging from 70-75%.
You must be looking at the wrong columns (?). The last three columns are for accumulated precipitation since October 1 (the beginning of the water year), not the current snowpack. The current snowpack is in column 3 and the average snowpack is in column 4.

Missing data is not counted as 0%; it is excluded from the percentage calculation.

2% is correct. This is based on the three stations that have no missing data.

Column 3 (current snowpack) for stations with no missing data: 0 + 0.2 + 0 = 0.2

Column 4 (average snowpack) for stations with no missing data: 6.8 + 2.7 + 0.8 = 10.3

0.2 / 10.3 = 0.02 = 2%

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[jman]

This year's data is not missing. It's the average that is missing. This is because those three stations are new and there aren't enough years to compile an average or median.


No. You must be looking at the wrong columns. The last three columns are for accumulated precipitation since October 1 (the beginning of the water year), not the current snowpack. The current snowpack is in column 3 and the average snowpack is in column 4.

Missing data is not counted as 0%; it is excluded from the percentage calculation.

2% is correct. This is based on the three stations that have no missing data.

Column 3 (current snowpack) for stations with no missing data: 0 + 0.2 + 0 = 0.2

Column 4 (average snowpack) for stations with no missing data: 6.8 + 2.7 + 0.8 = 10.3

0.2 / 10.3 = 0.02 = 2%

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Good thing I'm not a meteorologist! People would most likely die because of my reporting...

And when I did the averages, I got somewhere around .21 percent with those zeroes added in, so it made sense about the 2% to me.

But I see my issue - I was taking those averages from the "precip" column rather than SWE. Big difference.



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[Scott Card]

In March I asked the following question to KSL Weather ask-a-question- place.


"Is there a date that weather guru's look at as the "all clear" date or drop dead date when you look at the percentage and realize that the water year will likely be okay or not? I guess another way to ask the same question is what is the snow pack season?"

Mr. Kevin Eubank from KSL, himself, answered my question as follows:


Scott, April 1st is the date that water experts use to gauge the snowpack situation. This year has been exceptional…we reached the April 1st averages in many basins on March 1st, one month early.

Kevin Eubank

Apparently, as far as water year goes, we were done worrying in March and the precip since then is gravy! :2thumbs:

[Scott P]

Apparently, as far as water year goes, we were done worrying in March and the precip since then is gravy! :2thumbs:

April 1 is used because it's the average date of the maximum snowpack in Utah. In Colorado, it's April 9.

That doesn't mean snowpack can't peak early or later, but the average is used to assess the situation.

Utah doesn't seem to have an equivalent graph, but here's is Colorado's. Sometimes, such as in 2015 the April 1 snowpack looks dismal, but that year a snowy May meant that by late May snowpack was above normal. Of course the reverse can be true as well.

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Still, April 1 (or 9th for Colorado) makes a good date to look at since peak snowpack usually happens around that date.

[accadacca]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170514/f41337847ab8b6c440b1b6d360462486.jpg