Keyhole flash flood deaths

[CanyonHawks]

Terrible week for Zions area. heart sick.

--

ZION NATIONAL PARK -- A fourth body was recovered in Zion National Park after a party of seven got caught in flash flooding while canyoneering Monday evening. There are three still missing as of Tuesday night.

The group was in Keyhole Canyon when .63 inches of rain fell between 4:30 and 5:30 p.m., said Aly Baltrus, spokeswoman at the park. Keyhole Canyon is a short, narrow slot canyon located on the east side of the park.

Rangers received a report of the group canyoneering in the canyon shortly before the flooding began. It was determined the group had not come out of the canyon when crews found their unoccupied cars at the trailhead Monday evening, according to park officials. A search began for the party Tuesday morning.

"As search continues for the missing hikers, high water levels and continued rain showers pose further flash flooding concerns and have hampered searchers' access to the technical portions of the canyoneering route," officials say.

Search and rescue crews are waiting for weather to clear before entering the canyon.

There were four men and three women canyoneering. Baltrus said those in the party were in their 40s and 50s and were from the California and Nevada areas. Names of the victims will not be released until next of kin has been notified.

A permit is required to enter Keyhole Canyon. Park officials say hikers must complete several short rappels under 30 feet and swim through several pools of water to get through it.

This is the second deadly flooding in southern Utah (http://fox13now.com/2015/09/14/flooding-reported-in-hildale-zion-national-park/). Twelve bodies and one person is missing after a family was swept away in flash flooding in Hildale Monday evening. Three people were rescued.

The National Weather Service (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=UTZ020&warncounty=UTC025&firewxzone=UTZ498&local_place1=20%20Miles%20SE%20Tropic%20UT&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning&lat=37.3958&lon=-111.8523#.VfiMypfMKjw) has issued a flash flooding warning For southeastern Washington County along with southwestern Kane County. The warning will remain effect until 7:15 p.m.

“The Hildale drainage is currently saturated and additional rainfall is expected,” according to NWS.

The warning is warranted due to the combination to light to moderate rainfall and the fact there is a search and rescue operation ongoing in the drainage.
More information will be provided as it becomes available.


http://fox13now.com/2015/09/15/2-dead-5-missing-in-zion-national-park-after-caught-in-flash-flooding/

[Iceaxe]

There is no excuse for getting caught in a flash flood in Keyhole as you have complete visual access to the entire drainage.

[CanyonHawks]

Agreed.
Comment in the SLC Trib said "In Zion, the group picked up a permit about 7:30 a.m. Monday for four men and three women from California and Nevada, Baltrus said. Rangers warned that the flash flood danger was "probable," but the group apparently took the permit anyway, "

http://www.sltrib.com/home/2953891-155/park-officials-2-dead-5-missing

[jman]

I figured with the Hilldale flash flood, that we would hear about more rescues in the area.

First fatality(ies) in Keyhole.

I offer my condolences to the family. It's very tragic.

Thanks for posting the news CanyonHawks.


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[nkanarik]

Does anyone know what the NOAA whether forecast for that day was? Just wondering, since often I see something like 30% chance of rain in the afternoon, and rangers mark it as "probable"

[Glenn]

Another article with extra info:
https://kutv.com/news/local/2-dead-in-zion-flash-flood-5-others-missing

[jman]

Edit: KSL updated it to 3 bodies recovered and 4 missing. My stomach is literally sick thinking about these floods.
Bo_Beck, I'm sure he will fill us in the coming days once SAR completes.

[Scott Card]

Comments from the rangers are but one factor I use to make decisions to enter canyons. What really helps me is watching weather patterns and forecasts for several days prior to my trips and what Ice said, looking up in the sky. Yesterday and today would have been hiking/ photo days for me, not canyon days.

I will say that Keyhole has a certain al"lure" to it, like a fishing lure that can catch and kill you. I think some could get a false sense of security because the drainage is so small and the canyon so short. When in a canyon, one of the best reminders of potential water levels in a flash flood is to look up and notice the logs wedged 10 to 30 to 50 feet above you. Humbling, really.

[accadacca]

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/6965869.jpg

ZION NATIONAL PARK — Officials confirmed three people were killed by flash flooding in Zion National Park and four are missing.

The flooding occurred Monday afternoon after the area received .63 inches of rain between 4:30 and 5:30 p.m., according to Zion National Park public information officer Aly Baltrus. Rangers received reports of a group of seven people canyoneering in Keyhole Canyon before the flooding occurred. Their vehicles were located Monday evening and a search was launched Tuesday morning.

The bodies of the three of the victims were discovered at the east side of Keyhole Canyon, Baltrus said. Four people are still overdue.

High water levels and continued rain showers posed further flash flooding concerns and hampered the efforts of search and rescue teams Tuesday afternoon.

Keyhole Canyon (http://www.canyoneeringusa.com/utah/zion/technical/keyhole-canyon/) is a short, slot canyon located on the east side of Zion National Park. The canyon is quite popular with canyoneers and takes one to two hours to traverse. It requires a permit and features several technical elements, including a 30-foot rappel and swimming through several pools.

The flooding on Monday and Tuesday also claimed the lives of 12 people (http://www.ksl.com/?sid=36528795&nid=148) in Hildale and Colorado City by 3:30 p.m. A flash flood carried away two vehicles with three women and 13 children inside.

The victims in both flash floods have not yet been identified, pending family notification. More information will be posted as it becomes available.

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=36536605&nid=148&fm=most_popular&s_cid=popular-1

[trackrunner]

Does anyone know what the NOAA whether forecast for that day was? Just wondering, since often I see something like 30% chance of rain in the afternoon, and rangers mark it as "probable"
Flash flood forecast was moderate for the day. Below is the definition of moderate and I would say this met the definition.

I remember a couple years ago the guys caught in Spry flash flood complained that it was only a moderate warning. Buy the flash flood was localized to Spry and Lodge.

MODERATE: LOCALIZED SLOT CANYONS...DRY WASHES AND SMALL STREAMS MAY
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING

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[SLCmntjunkie]

Skies were blue as can be up canyon above the drainage when they were at the first rappel, that's when I passed the group. 10-15 minutes later it was flooding. You can't see to the south where the clouds were coming from in that location. It came in very fast and they were moving very slowly. With that said, If I had a big group and I couldn't get through the lower section in less than 10 minutes, no way I would of continued.

[Taylor]

For several days the forecast has been calling for heavy rain in Utah yesterday thru tomorrow. Why go? Sad story and a stupid way to go.

[TommyBoy]

Also why did they go in the afternoon? If they picked up the permit in the morning they should have been in and out by then, most heavy rains come later in the day. Not saying I would have gone at all with that kind of forcast, but I sure as heck wouldn't have done it later in the day.

[Sombeech]

Wow, in keyhole nonetheless.

For us folks who live in Utah, it's easy enough to say "We'll hit it next time". But I wonder where these people were from. You can see the warnings of high probability for flash floods like my group did this year, and the canyons remain the driest we've ever seen.

It sure is a kick in the teeth to save up all year for a once in a lifetime trip, maybe even from another country, make the hard decision to pass on a canyon because of flood warnings, and go home knowing that there wasn't a drop of water that fell in the canyon the whole time.

Sure it's better than dying, but it can truly be a tough call when you've anticipated it all year just to flip a coin and pass on it.

Maybe this was their first and only planned trip to zion, ever.

With those circumstances, I can fully sympathize with the decision to take the chance. For us Utes, it's easier to delay and plan for next year.

That sucks.

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[Glenn]

Word is that this group is from California. I have a CA hiking acquaintance who is worried that these may all be friends of hers (she hasn't heard back yet).

Latest news: a fourth body has been found. Oh, this is heartbreaking.

http://www.wtoc.com/story/30034958/the-latest-on-flooding-4th-body-found-in-zion-national-park

[villainousturtle]

Skies were blue as can be up canyon above the drainage when they were at the first rappel, that's when I passed the group. 10-15 minutes later it was flooding. You can't see to the south where the clouds were coming from in that location. It came in very fast and they were moving very slowly. With that said, If I had a big group and I couldn't get through the lower section in less than 10 minutes, no way I would of continued.

Wait were you in Keyhole with this group yesterday?!


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[Glenn]

Wait were you in Keyhole with this group yesterday?!



Yep, more details. So, you were exiting as they were entering? You saw the rain coming and couldn't warn them or notify the ranger on the east entrance? I'm not second-guessing you, just interested in your story.

[Iceaxe]

or notify the ranger on the east entrance?

What good would telling the ranger do? By the time you drove to the east entrance it would all be over. And what exactly is the ranger supposed to do? Even if he is on site the ranger can't do much, most of them don't have the canyoneering skills of your typical experienced canyoneer and they don't pack all their gear all the time.

[Scott P]

There is no excuse for getting caught in a flash flood in Keyhole as you have complete visual access to the entire drainage.

Some of the inexperienced parties in there take 3-5 hours to get through. I've heard people say that


Wow, in keyhole nonetheless.

Keyhole is a "small drainage", but all slot canyons are dangerous during flash floods.

On a different note, my guess is that the most potentially dangerous canyons for flash floods are Buckskin Gulch, Pine Creek (Zion), and the Black Hole. All of them are also considered "beginner canyons", at least from a technical standpoint.

[Iceaxe]

Some of the inexperienced parties in there take 3-5 hours to get through.

Anyone with moderate canyoneering skills can do the technical section of Keyhole in under 10 minutes.

And there is a nice escape between the upper scramble section and the lower tech section.

I hate to say this with the recent tragedy, but the only reason for a death in Keyhole is lack of commonsense.

[Glenn]

What good would telling the ranger do? By the time you drove to the east entrance it would all be over. And what exactly is the ranger supposed to do? Even if he is on site the ranger can't do much, most of them don't have the canyoneering skills of your typical experienced canyoneer and they don't pack all their gear all the time.

I see your point. However, I think my inclination would be to inform the park as soon as I possibly could if I were in this situation. Maybe they could help, or maybe they'd just stand by until the rain stopped. The ranger station is only two miles away, maybe five minutes.

[Iceaxe]

On a different note, my guess is that the most potentially dangerous canyons for flash floods are Buckskin Gulch, Pine Creek (Zion), and the Black Hole. All of them are also considered "beginner canyons", at least from a technical standpoint.

Any canyon with a huge catch basin located miles away out of visual range is very dangerous. The two canyons that always cause me concern are Heaps and Imlay because you are in the belly of the beast for such a long time with few place to hide.

[Scott P]

Anyone with moderate canyoneering skills can do the technical section of Keyhole in under 10 minutes.

I agree, but some people take a lot longer than that.


I hate to say this with the recent tragedy, but the only reason for a death in Keyhole is lack of commonsense.

I would agree with that too, even if you said it harshly. There were flash flood warnings out and the rangers informed them of this too. Condolences to the families though.


The two canyons that always cause me concern are Heaps and Imlay because you are in the belly of the beast for such a long time with few place to hide.

Dangerous for sure, but unless they are full, in theory a flash flood is going to move much slower through Heaps and Imlay than it will in a drainage without check dams (i.e. potholes in Heaps and Imlay). As you said though, it takes a long time for canyoneers to get through those ones so the danger is extreme. I wouldn't want to be in any canyon when it flash floods, especially in Heaps or Imlay. If you did get hit by a big one in either of those, unless you caught caught in a strainer, it is likely that pieces of bodies, rather than bodies would be found.

[Iceaxe]

I see your point. However, I think my inclination would be to inform the park as soon as I possibly could if I were in this situation. Maybe they could help, or maybe they'd just stand by until the rain stopped. The ranger station is only two miles away, maybe five minutes.
FWIW- The rangers at the entrance station are not backcountry rangers and do not possess their skill set and training. They are usually the low man on the totem pole and would probably be of little help outside of their communication gear.

[CanyonFreak]

I was descending the west rim trail that day with family and can say this about the weather. It rained most the night before and you could see it storming throughout zion from the rim. It appeared the east side was taking the brunt of it although at campsite 1, I didnt have a good view of the west. On our way down in the am there was moderate rain from about 9-11am. I saw three moderate waterfalls in refrigerator canyon but never saw it flood lower down. The skies did clear for a bit but you could see another system building in the distance. The forecast was calling for at least 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms starting at noon and it was very believable when looking up. It did not look like a reasonable day for any canyon in my opinion. The terrain was well soaked so it likely wouldn't take much additional rain to flash.

I met a man from California on the way down the trail who said he has some friends taking a day course and were planning a run through keyhole later that day to reinforce the course . I hope it wasn't his group. My parents and I were disappointed to skip the landing on our way down but weather did not call for it so we bailed.Many people were going up angels during a downpour with thunder all around. It's easy to get caught up in the moment and seeing hundreds go up the trail can make it hard to listen to the voice of reason whether it's a hike or canyon.

Condolences to family and friends for your loss.

[villainousturtle]

I met a man from California on the way down the trail who said he has some friends taking a day course and were planning a run through keyhole later that day to reinforce the course . I hope it wasn't his group.

The group was made up of Californians and Nevadans. Very possible that it was his group. Sad sad sad.



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[thawks77]

Makes me feel sick to my stomach and sad for these people and their families. Have had many great runs through keyhole with friends and family. It's sad but true that this could have been avoided. My condolences to the families.
Please be safe people!

Going through Kolob next week, weather and water level permitting of course.

[whansen]

On Monday i got this email notification.

WaterAlert. 2240 cfs, 'NORTH FORK VIRGIN RIVER NEAR SPRINGDALE, UT'

Streamflow of 2240 cfs exceeds subscriber threshold of 150 at 2015-09-14 17:45:00 MDT
09405500 00060 NORTH FORK VIRGIN RIVER NEAR SPRINGDALE, UT
Notification interval, no more often than: Daily

For Realtime Data at this station:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=09405500

That is a crazy amount of water coming down the Narrows. The Virgin is a wild river.

[CanyonHawks]

I got the same alert for the 2240 CFS on the virgin and hoped that no one was in the canyons.

When I told my wife about this tragic situation and commented that they should have known better she reminded me of the time I was going through Mystery with a group of newbies while she waited at the visitor center. She saw thunder and lighting and worried the whole time. We had only blue sky and not a drop of rain. It was very localized so it can be hard to tell at times. Keyhole does have a short drainage so it must have really poured.

I am so sorry for the loss. Heart wrenching.

[jman]

Here are a few pictures I snagged from Google Earth showing the drainage, canyon, and waypoints of Keyhole Canyon, for those unfamiliar with it:
EDIT: the pictures have been re-sized automatically, hence that's why they are hard to read. But if you click on the pics, it should open to a much bigger picture.

81498

81499

81500

81501

81502

81503

Edit: @Sombeech (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=6), anyway I can make these pictures bigger here? On my PC they are much bigger, but here...much smaller.

[Sombeech]

Edit: @Sombeech (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=6), anyway I can make these pictures bigger here? On my PC they are much bigger, but here...much smaller.

Sure, we could experiment with different sizes now that the majority of Desktop users are viewing at 1920 X 1080 on widescreen. We decided on 800 wide a few years ago because any bigger was getting the sidebars and avatar columns all overlapping.

The template is responsive though, so the content shrinks/grows with the internet browser width, but the images will cap out at 800 wide at the moment.

For now, just right click on the image, open in a new tab, and hold Control and scroll with the mouse wheel to zoom in and out. Then resize back to your preferred browser zoom level when done.

We'll look at some stats and see what the majority of users are viewing the site with. We haven't done that for a long long time.

[Tucker]

I assume they had cleared the tourists out of the Narrows. I'll bet it was bad there too.

[Iceaxe]

FWIW- Pin 3/3 is at the first rappel which separates the upper scramble section from the lower technical section in Keyhole. Pin 3/3 is also an escape that allows you to exit out the south side for a 5 minute walk back to your car.


The google Earth KMZ file for Keyhole is available here for anyone that wants to play around with it.


Keyhole Canyon - KMZ
http://climb-utah.com/Zion/keyhole.htm

And here is a video of the canyon for those that have never done it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzqSfMjJHfk

[villainousturtle]

Two of the deceased, Sheriff Steve Arthur, 58, and his wife Linda, are the first to be identified. http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/latest-missing-deadly-utah-border-floods-33792078


http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/09/16/69cb45ee68701dc29a86a0aa1e174af5.jpg


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[Iceaxe]

The dead are/were noobies. My understanding is the permit was in the name of Sheriff Steve Arthur and it was the first Zion permit he had ever obtained.

[accadacca]

Zion National Park explains backcountry permit rules following flash flood deaths

https://audioboom.com/boos/3582900-zion-national-park-explains-backcountry-permit-rules-following-flash-flood-deaths

[Scott P]

The dead are/were noobies. My understanding is the permit was in the name of Sheriff Steve Arthur and it was the first Zion permit he had ever obtained.

Take this with a grain of salt, but one report said that they got their permit in the morning, and then went and took a canyoneering class before doing the canyon, which is why they went in the afternoon.

[villainousturtle]

Take this with a grain of salt, but one report said that they got their permit in the morning, and then went and took a canyoneering class before doing the canyon, which is why they went in the afternoon.

People are being rather tight lipped, but I have seen different members of the community on the various forums state that they had personal encounters with the late canyoneers on the day of. One poster said they spoke to one of the deceased on the west rim trail the day of, another was in Keyhole with the seven prior to the incident, and another found one of the bodies. There has to be someone who instructed the class out there. I'm curious if it was ZAC or similar. I'm sure that would be very sad news to hear the folks you'd just instructed had lost their lives.


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[CanyonFreak]

One poster said they spoke to one of the deceased on the west rim trail the day of, another was in Keyhole with the seven prior to the incident, and another found one of the bodies. There has to be someone who instructed the class out there. I'm curious if it was ZAC or similar. I'm sure that would be very sad news to hear the folks you'd just instructed had lost their lives.


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I had the encounter monday on the way down the west rim trail to the grotto with a potential member of the group. He said his friends were taking the course from ZAC that day. I'm not saying for certain this is the same person involved with the group but he did have some canyoneering experience, probably why he wasn't taking the class and day hiking instead that morning.

He made it seem like the others were beginners or had little to no experience as the article suggests. In making small talk about the west rim trail he mentioned that the 5th canyon he ever did was heaps. He was a pleasant and friendly person who was very enthusiastic about canyoneering. He voiced concern over the weather holding for a Subway permit his group held for tuesday.

[jman]

Fox13now.com is reporting that the 7th and final body has been recovered at 11:35am today.

So many lives...:cry1:

[accadacca]

7th body located after flooding in Zion

ZION NATIONAL PARK — The body of a seventh hiker was found by search and rescue teams in Zion National Park Thursday, making it the 19th death caused (https://www.ksl.com/?sid=36545005&nid=148&title=18-dead-in-so-utah-flooding-search-continues-for-others&s_cid=queue-19)by Monday's flash flooding.

All seven of the deceased hikers (https://www.ksl.com/?sid=36536605&nid=148) were part of the same group that began canyoneering in the area a short time before flooding started around 4:30 p.m. Monday, according to Zion National Park spokeswoman Aly Baltrus. Nearly three-quarters of an inch of rain fell inside the national park within an hour.

The four-man, three-woman group set off in the park on Monday to go canyoneering in Keyhole Canyon. Six members of the group were from California and one was from Nevada and all were in their 40s and 50s, Baltrus said. The identities of the seven victims have not yet been released by park officials, pending notification of family members.

However, the Ventura (California) County Sheriff's Office said Wednesday that one of those killed in Zion National Park was sheriff's Sgt. Steve Arthur. The sheriff's office said Arthur's wife, Linda Arthur, was among the group, but Zion National Park officials haven't confirmed if she was the victim recovered Thursday.

Search and rescue efforts were hampered Tuesday and Wednesday by the continuing rain and dangerous flooding conditions in the canyon, officials said. Keyhole Canyon is a technical slot canyon, meaning climbing gear is needed. The canyon, located on the east end of the park near the border of Washington and Kane counties, has three parts and involves swimming through several pools and a 30-foot rappelling section.

About 45 miles away, a second search continued for a 6-year-old boy who was swept away in a flash flood in Hildale (https://www.ksl.com/?sid=36528795&nid=148&title=16-possibly-20-die-in-devastating-southern-utah-flash-floods&s_cid=queue-59) from the same Monday rainstorm. The bodies of nine children and three mothers in that tragedy were recovered Monday and Tuesday.
More information will be posted as it becomes available.



http://www.ksl.com/?sid=36562194&nid=148&title=7th-body-located-after-flooding-in-zion&fm=home_page&s_cid=topstory

[accadacca]

I'm kinda wondering if 7 deaths is a record?

What have been the worse flash floods on record in slot canyons?

[Iceaxe]

It's 19 flash flood death's from that storm and yes it was a Utah record. 12 was the old record.

[villainousturtle]

I'm kinda wondering if 7 deaths is a record?

What have been the worse flash floods on record in slot canyons?

11 died in Lower Antelope slot in 1997. So keyhole is not a slot canyon death record.


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[Glenn]

I'm kinda wondering if 7 deaths is a record?

What have been the worse flash floods on record in slot canyons?

This is the worst death toll in Zion for sure. Five persons died in the 1961 flood in the Narrows.

Unfortunately, the total toll will be twenty persons (including the one missing boy from Hilldale). Worst natural disaster in Utah history, I think.

[Glenn]

Final victim, Linda Arthur, was found in Pine Creek, just after the last rap.
Video of the recovery:
http://www.therepublic.com/view/video/e2457d30755242dc9cad70aa0be4bfcd/USUTFLOODINGBODIES20150917cr_x070a

[nelsonccc]

So the final body was found below Pine creek? That's quite a bit away from Keyhole. Crazy. I also read somewhere that the next day after the flood there was a group going through Keyhole and they found the second body. That's quite the path between Keyhole and Pine.

[Iceaxe]

Are you looking for the Utah record? US record? Or international record?

Antelope Canyon is in Arizona.

In 1999 eighteen canyoneers died is a flash flood in the Swiss Alps. If I remember correctly it was a guided group.

[Scott P]

Worst natural disaster in Utah history, I think.

No. Avalanches have killed more than that during the mining days. The miners around Alta cut down all the trees, which made the avalanche danger worse. In 1865, 65 people (some sources say 64) were killed by an avalanche that hit Alta. Avalanche deaths were common at Alta. During the 14 year silver boom in the 1800's, at least 143 people were lost to avalanches at Alta. Between 1865 and 1915, about 250 people were killed by avalanches at Alta.

Other than Alta, in Bingham Canyon (near the present day copper mine), one avalanche killed 36 on February 17 1926.

As far as flash floods in Utah, the old record for a single location may (?) have been seven at Sheep Creek near Flaming Gorge. Seven died in one flash flood in 1965. It's not a slot canyon though, in fact they were at a campground.

I'm not sure where the 12 were that Shane mentions. The seven killed in Sheep Creek is mentioned in my weather almanac for Utah, but it doesn't say that the seven is a record.

[Iceaxe]

It looks like those killed in Keyhole were part of a SoCal based MeetUp group. Below is a link to their page.

VHC Hiking Enthusiasts
http://www.meetup.com/HikeItUp/

The owner of the group of over 1000 members was one of the victims.

[Sombeech]

Oh wow, here are the 7.

81509
| Courtesy Zion National Park Portrait of the group standing before the first rappel of Keyhole Canyon on Monday, September 14, 2015. Photographed from left to right: Gary Favela, Don Teichner, Muku Reynolds, Steve Arthur, Linda Arthur, Robin Brum, and Mark MacKenzie.

Their identities were released late Thursday by park personnel. Six of them were from California: Mark MacKenzie, 56, of Valencia; Linda Arthur, 57, and her husband, Steve Arthur, 58, of Camarillo; Muku Reynolds, 59, of Chino; Robin Brum, 53, of Camarillo; and Gary Favela, 51, of Rancho Cucamonga.
The seventh victim who died in Monday's Keyhole Canyon tragedy was Don Teichner, 55, of Mesquite, Nev.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/2960471-155/search-resumes-for-last-of-zion

[villainousturtle]

There has to be someone who instructed the class out there. I'm curious if it was ZAC or similar. I'm sure that would be very sad news to hear the folks you'd just instructed had lost their lives.


In the picture posted of them (it was probably pulled from one of their soggy SD cards as it says they are above the first rap in Keyhole) they are clearly wearing the same blue pre-sewn rap station clip in slings that ZAC loans out. Also the white helmets with green squares are the ones ZAC rents as well. ZAC has been silent about this incident on their FB page. So I'm 99% that it was a ZAC class they took.



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[accadacca]

The group was last seen alive in the canyon when passed by other hikers, who then notified rangers that the seven may be in peril as the clouds burst about 4:30 p.m. Monday.

Zion National Park has a tragic past of flooding-related tragedies. Last year, a hiker drowned in the Narrows; in 2001, a 10-year-old boy died when he was washed away on the Canyon Overlook trail; in 1998, two hikers drowned in the Narrows; in 1993, two Scout leaders died in a flash flood in Kolob Canyon; and, in 1961, four Boy Scouts and their leader were killed in the Narrows.

[jman]

[QUOTE=Sombeech;572208]Oh wow, here are the 7.

81509
| Courtesy Zion National Park Portrait of the group standing before the first rappel of Keyhole Canyon on Monday, September 14, 2015. Photographed from left to right: Gary Favela, Don Teichner, Muku Reynolds, Steve Arthur, Linda Arthur, Robin Brum, and Mark MacKenzie.


If this is the last known picture, you can see how wet the ground is already. The canyon might of have had a small flow while they did the middle section and was probably a hoot (for their first time). And then they reached this area before the raps, took their pic and headed down.

The technical section is just under 0.25 miles, and you can see how the lighting doesn't look too dark for a late-afternoon start. Then all within 15-20minutes, the storm hits and drops more than .5 inch of water in this localized drainage (710+ acres).............

One take away from this awful tragedy: the weather and skies ARE deceiving when it's cloudy.

It just amazes me; not their decision to do the slot canyon, but after doing Keyhole 15+ times in 8 years, I think most of us are familiar with Keyhole quite well. And I think we have all have thought about where they were trapped, imagining the water filling up, being incredibly loud with the amount of water crashing down, the yelling, the panic, etc. ...ugh...the 2nd rap (which I'm guessing they all weren't done rappelling), narrow corridors, etc. Gives me the chills...

I hope those who think they are invincible will give pause on the weather next time when they head out.


And next Saturday, I'm taking my brother and co-worker (first time through a slot canyon, first time rappelling) through Keyhole and some other beginner canyons and it will very sobering to travel through it...

[dougr]

Shocked and saddened, no doubt.

We'll have to start a new thread on the permit and/or training and/or closure restrictions that might be proposed because of this. I've said it before and I'll say it again, we need to civilly disobey the systematic closing off of our lands using cradle to grave safety coddling as a pretext.

[kiwi_outdoors]

This incident reminds me of my one big lesson from Avalanche Safety training. When planning a fun high-adventure trip; have an alternate trip, a Plan B, that will be an acceptable alternative. Absent a Plan B, you will likely proceed with Plan A even if it is not wise, due to your Group Dynamics (not wanting to dissapoint fellow trip mates, egging each other on, not wanting to look like a "chicken", etc.).

[hank moon]

If this is the last known picture, you can see how wet the ground is already. The canyon might of have had a small flow while they did the upper section and was probably a hoot (for their first time). And then they reached this area before the raps, took their pic and headed down.

FWIW this pic appears to have been taken just above the entry to middle Keyhole, not just before the raps (Lower Keyhole)

[jman]

FWIW this pic appears to have been taken just above the entry to middle Keyhole, not just before the raps (Lower Keyhole)

Edit: thanks for the correction.


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[VWSyncro]

That photo is shocking. It has really flat lighting; it must have been almost completely overcast. My mind has been mulling this over for the past couple of days wondering how it happened as I've never been in a flash flood but I've been in middle Echo when it started to rain.

Thinking about my experience of how I ended up in a rainy narrow slot: it was mid-morning, I knew there were escape routes by checking them out on the way up, knew we could go fast--and did end up BOOKING IT, had been canyoneering a couple years so our skills were decent, were a small group of 2, and we dropped in when it was actually sunny. And we had basically no fun b/c we focused on getting out of there--so there is was very little reward.

Why did everyone decide to go? No one changed their mind? There were red flags... How do 7 people all decide to do a canyon on a cloudy day, in the late afternoon, with a big group including some newbies, during Monsoon season? It makes me sick. Have I completely taken for granted my decision-making skills? I hope we eventually understand this better.

[villainousturtle]

Also, is the camera on a tripod or did someone else shoot this for them? If someone else shot it, was it the elusive forum member SLCmntjunkie ? He said he passed them and then sped through the canyon in 10 minutes. He has to have more information that could illuminate this accident.


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[Iceaxe]

I'm guessing someone in one of the groups that passed them snapped the picture. Experienced canyoneers know the correct spot to suit up is above the first rap and not at the start of the slot where this picture was taken.

[ratagonia]

I'm guessing someone in one of the groups that passed them snapped the picture. Experienced canyoneers know the correct spot to suit up is above the first rap and not at the start of the slot where this picture was taken.

I usually suit up here, or at the car. That way my group gets nice and warm before the first swim at the bottom of the first rappel, and we don't need to carry the wetsuits through Upper Keyhole.

I guess I am not a "correct" "experienced canyoneer". :ne_nau:

Tom :moses:

[Slot Machine]

The photo of that group puts a knot in my stomach. Why? Because they are having so much fun together. And because I'm no different than them.

Keyhole was our first technical canyon. While we were suiting up, I accidentally put my harness on upside-down because I knew so little about harnesses. Nobody noticed my harness was in that configuration until we were done. We all had a good laugh at the end of the slot.

Some time went by. And we did a whole bunch of canyons.
___

A year or two later I visited Keyhole with a couple of buddies that had never seen a slot canyon. When we arrived at the trailhead it was raining cats and dogs. We couldn't even see the lines on the road. We sat in the car and waited. And waited. What are we going to do? Head back to Springdale? Then do what? It was probably 3 or 4 in the afternoon.

After about 30 minutes, the intensity of the rain went from a '10' down to a '4'. Annoying, but not too bad. I suggested that we go to the top of Keyhole to see if the canyon floor was dry. So we hiked up the very wet slickrock, and oddly enough, the floor of the canyon was dry.

We hiked down the slot to the first rap. It was still raining. We peered down the first rap to see a very dry (and smell a very stinky) canyon. Jeez, how often does this thing flash? Once a year? Twice a year? Psssht! If it hasn't flashed already today, it isn't going to flash now! Right?!?

So we dropped in and rushed through. I don't think it stopped sprinkling, even for a minute. It was spooky and fun.
___

It rained throughout the night. HARD. I checked the NOAA satellite images and saw that the storm was passing. We were scheduled to do Misery Canyon. So I suggested that we drive to the Misery trailhead and hoped that our timing would work out.

As we drove to the Misery trailhead we passed Keyhole canyon. Keyhole was flashing. Photographers documented the explosion of water erupting from the bottom. It was a sobering sight. A moment that still eats at me. I should have used better judgment.
___

It's haunting to see those seven standing in water. Hold on, before I judge them, have I done a canyon while it was flowing? Yes, a couple. Have I done Keyhole while it was raining? Twice. Have I done risky stuff when I've had canyon fever? Far too often.

Once you do a few canyons, you will have stories like this too. You will have a spectrum of moments that range from 'perfectly rational' to 'greedy, sloppy, canyon fever-y'. You will look back and feel lucky. You might look at these seven and feel sadness, because they got their tickets punched far too early, and because they are not that different than you.
__

My sincere condolences go out to the family and friends of those lost in this accident.

[VWSyncro]

I'm the opposite of everything you just said. I've bailed on plenty of canyons. What to do in Springdale at 4pm? Dunno but I get up at 6am when canyoneering so I'm almost done with my day by then. And I'll happily drive 4-6 hours somewhere else on the Plateau with better weather forecasts.

[Slot Machine]

Trollie McNewmember,

Some folks drive to Zion in the morning, then do Keyhole in the afternoon. Common and reasonable behavior. But you've done lots of canyons, so you already know this.

And sometimes it rains unexpectedly while you are canyoneering, even when due diligence has been done. But you've done lots of canyons, so you already know this too.

But I'm unfamiliar with the driving 4-6 hours, running away from clouds. Could you tell me more about that?

-Bob

[Iceaxe]

I usually suit up here, or at the car.

Dang, putting on a wetsuit for Keyhole at the car is a lot like putting on a condom before you pick up your date.

[dlofting]

Great post Slot Machine (I wanted to hit the "Like" button 3 or 4 times) and my feelings exactly when I look at that picture.

We come to Utah once a year in August, during the monsoon season to hike and canyoneer. I've watched the weather forecast diligently (some would say obsessively) as we waited to do a canyon. Do we go when the probability of thunder showers says 30%, even when it's perfectly clear at 6:00 in the morning or do we hike instead. How long will it take us to get through the canyon....I'm getting older and slower....can we be out of the technical sections by early afternoon or is that unrealistic. What happens if someone gets hurt or a rope gets stuck.

So far we've been fine, and we don't take chances, but I still keep thinking that picture could have been us.

[VWSyncro]

Who's the troll? Me? Ha! Pot meet kettle. I guess having a different opinion than you is personal.

Yes, I'm new to the forum, so I should be disrespected, clearly. My canyoneering buddy took a class from Rich back in 2003, I took some classes from Jared at NWO in 2006, and I have been in many canyons in the afternoon in Zion b/c I had to in order to complete them, ala Heaps, Imlay, Kolob, Boundary, Eye of the Needle, blah blah. But hey I'm a troll!

I've been in canyons when it rains, sure. But I have never started one in the rain, as described. And with so many world class canyons in a 6 hour radius in Utah, with different drainage sizes and weather forecasts and drainage material, yes I drive. But hey I'm a troll!

Running away from clouds... that speaks volumes. Yup I'm a coward!


Trollie McNewmember,

Some folks drive to Zion in the morning, then do Keyhole in the afternoon. Common and reasonable behavior. But you've done lots of canyons, so you already know this.

And sometimes it rains unexpectedly while you are canyoneering, even when due diligence has been done. But you've done lots of canyons, so you already know this too.

But I'm unfamiliar with the driving 4-6 hours, running away from clouds. Could you tell me more about that?

-Bob

[Slot Machine]

My canyoneering buddy took a class from Rich back in 2003,

Nobody. In the universe. Cares.

You don't get one of Rich's badges of Certified Super-Duper-Ness via osmosis just by standing near your friend.


... and I have been in many canyons in the afternoon in Zion b/c I had to in order to complete them, ala Heaps, Imlay, Kolob, Boundary, Eye of the Needle, blah blah.

I think you became a Bogley member just you could jerk-off while typing these words.


I've been in canyons when it rains, sure. But I have never started one in the rain, as described.

Did you miss the part where I realized the gravity of my mistake?


Running away from clouds... that speaks volumes. Yup I'm a coward!

Not a coward. Just a time waster. Did you know that clouds move? Most clouds move faster than I can drive, so I usually stay put and drink beers, rather than try and run from them.

:beer:

I'm sorry the sentiment of my post was lost on you. Do you have anything helpful to add to the forum other than "Be safe by driving away from clouds" ?

[VWSyncro]

I'm guessing everywhere you go you often meet people more ignorant than you. You're surrounded by fools!

You have taken my perspective personally and continue to attack me. You did insinuate that I know nothing, that I offered nothing, and have nothing to offer. But I do have decent credentials to know of what I speak. So I'll let future readers form their own opinions; I will now step away and let you bask in your self-superiority. Keep canyoneering!

[cmgz]

I'm guessing everywhere you go you often meet people more ignorant than you. You're surrounded by fools!

You have taken my perspective personally and continue to attack me. You did insinuate that I know nothing, that I offered nothing, and have nothing to offer. But I do have decent credentials to know of what I speak. So I'll let future readers form their own opinions; I will now step away and let you bask in your self-superiority. Keep canyoneering!


The whole thing is sad. A wonderful day turned to tragedy. It doesn't really matter if they were experienced or had the right equipment at the right time. 7 people died tragically that's it.

[Sombeech]

Dang, putting on a wetsuit for Keyhole at the car is a lot like putting on a condom before you pick up your date.
I remember suiting up just before the wet section, and i remember that's when I brought out the cucumber.

[hank moon]

Thinking about my experience of how I ended up in a rainy narrow slot: it was mid-morning, I knew there were escape routes by checking them out on the way up, knew we could go fast--and did end up BOOKING IT, had been canyoneering a couple years so our skills were decent, were a small group of 2, and we dropped in when it was actually sunny. And we had basically no fun b/c we focused on getting out of there--so there is was very little reward.

And you knew that:

- the anchors were in good shape and needed no maintenance
- there was no other group(s) in the canyon ahead of you
- the canyon was essentially unchanged, obstacle-wise since the last time you visited
- there was a 0% chance of an accident or other event (e.g. stuck rope) that might slow you down
- ?

[VWSyncro]

Your points are well taken Hank, I'll remember them. Canyoneering is a risk management game, and I'm not an expert at it. That's why I attempt to be conservative. We failed in several ways that day. To fill in the data. We asked ZNP, no one else had pulled a permit for Echo when we got ours, and then we went to the trailhead. So we had made an assumption there which was poor, someone could be poaching it. We did not know the status of the anchors; we checked recent beta, but I'm sure it was weeks old. Fail. We asked and had not heard of new obstacles at the desk or online, and given that it is a trade route, we assumed it was the same. We did see that many parties had gone through in the prior week without known incident. So yeah, fail. We asked about current ice conditions, since we know this had been a prob before. We had 2 short 8mm spectra ropes (since we know this helps go faster and since the raps are short the weight penalty is nil), so if we stuck both we would have been in big trouble on the last 2. Our tiblocs would not have worked too well on those ropes so we screwed that up, altho we were using Attaches with them which helps.

[hank moon]

Your points are well taken Hank, I'll remember them. Canyoneering is a risk management game, and I'm not an expert at it. That's why I attempt to be conservative. We failed in several ways that day. To fill in the data. We asked ZNP, no one else had pulled a permit for Echo when we got ours, and then we went to the trailhead. So we had made an assumption there which was poor, someone could be poaching it. We did not know the status of the anchors; we checked recent beta, but I'm sure it was weeks old. Fail. We asked and had not heard of new obstacles at the desk or online, and given that it is a trade route, we assumed it was the same. We did see that many parties had gone through in the prior week without known incident. So yeah, fail. We asked about current ice conditions, since we know this had been a prob before. We had 2 short 8mm spectra ropes (since we know this helps go faster and since the raps are short the weight penalty is nil), so if we stuck both we would have been in big trouble on the last 2. Our tiblocs would not have worked too well on those ropes so we screwed that up, altho we were using Attaches with them which helps.

VW, that's a generous response to an exercise in nit-picking. That said, little things can grow quickly when playing "beat the reaper". Thanks for the additional info on your trip.

BTW, a report came in during the Zion Rondy of super thick log soup in middle Echo right now. At least as of last Friday. Difficult enough to prompt one party to escape the canyon.

[jman]

This was shared on CC and thought a few of you might like this too:

A great write up on the entire ordeal: http://graphics.latimes.com/zion-flash-flood/


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[Iceaxe]

The story was a good read. Thanks for posting it. [emoji106]

[accadacca]

So did we figure out how the photo of them was obtained?

[donnagail]

I guess people have a difficult time changing their agenda. I got 5 permits to enter Buckskin June 7th. June is hot but also one of the driest months. June 2015 turned out to be one of the wettest. I checked weather reports from Kanab since that was the Wirepass entry side not knowing that Bryce is what feeds Buckskin. When we arrived water was running
3500, normally 160 and there was 40 percent chance rain. We decide to shuttle to Whitehouse and wait a day and if the water levels changed we would hike up Paria and camp at the confluence and go up Buckskin as for as we could go as a day hike.The water levels didn't go down and we even got rained on at the Whitehouse campground. Decision time. One person I my group wanted to try hiking up stream. I told him he could do whatever he wanted to do but I disagree and would look for alternate hikes. I had marked my map with Plan C, which was about 15 other slots in the area. After talking to the Ranger, I learned they were all fed by Bryce. Rangers are SO knowledgeable! We completely changed our itinerary and did Antelope Canyon, Cathedral Wash and hiked to the Garden Wall. Nothinv to write home about but I am so glad my group discussed all our options and together we chose the safest alternatives. Even if you hold a permit every member of your party needs to be included in all situations and aware of what they are getting themselves in to and make their own decisions of whether or not to enter a canyon. AND have a back up plan even if it is not as fun as the original plan. I am not sure I would enter a canyon even with a 20 percent chance thunderstorm. There is a fine line at that point. I would like to hear other more dxperiencdd canyoneers thought on what percentage of rain would change their mind on entering a canyon. Also I was thinking the same thing as one of the other posters. Why pick up a permit at 7:30 but not enter untol 3:30?. That doesn't sound like a experienced canyoneer to me.

[nkanarik]

I'd be interested to know two things (for the sake of learning, and not finger pointing)

The folks who took their picture --> What made them think it was ok to do Keyhole at that time of the day?
The guide who instructed them that day --> Did he/she cover weather conditions in class? Did he/she provided any recommendation not to do a canyon that day in the afternoon (often guides asks participants to go and test their new skills as soon and as often as possible...once again...not finger pointing...just curious)?

[ratagonia]

Why pick up a permit at 7:30 but not enter until 3:30?. That doesn't sound like a experienced canyoneer to me.

That's right! Experienced canyoneers pick up their permit at 7:30 THE DAY BEFORE!

Limited quota means people get their permit as soon as possible. Not sure what time their class started, but they might have gotten the permit before the class (or the 7th person picked it up).

They took the class, rented wetsuits and got their gear for the next couple days set up, went and had lunch, then discussed whether they should do a canyon on that day.

Tom

[ratagonia]

So did we figure out how the photo of them was obtained?

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/zion-park-names-california-nevada-hikers-killed-flooding-33852850

"Days later, rescuers searching for their bodies found a camera revealing the final group photo."

[Slot Machine]

I am not sure I would enter a canyon even with a 20 percent chance thunderstorm. There is a fine line at that point. I would like to hear other more experienced canyoneers thought on what percentage of rain would change their mind on entering a canyon.

The % chance has limited utility. **EDIT: THIS IS HOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES ARE CALCULATED (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation). **

I DO look at that number, because the forecasting computers are good a predicting spontaneous cloud formation (particularly monsoon formations). So if the 20% is in the afternoon timeframe, and it is monsoon season, then I take it more seriously than, let's say, 20% on an dry-ish February morning. It's like being on the lookout for a 20% chance of getting punched by Mike Tyson vs. 20% chance of getting punched by Kermit the Frog.

In addition to that information, I spend a considerable amount of time before trips studying infrared weather patterns in the area that we are about to visit. Which way are the clouds moving? Is there a predictable pattern of thunderstoms in the afternoon? Are the clouds moving in waves? Or are they swirling? Are there people in that region doing rain dances? :haha:

Basically, I recommend using the percentages AND developing judgment by watching infrared weather patterns.


Why pick up a permit at 7:30 but not enter until 3:30?. That doesn't sound like a experienced canyoneer to me.

Even more experienced canyoneers* print their permits at home, via the Express Permit System, up to three days in advance.

What time someone picks up their permit has little or nothing to do with what time they will (or should) do the canyon. It is simply a full day pass.





* I've only done a fraction of the canyons that @R (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=10407)atagoina has. I'm not even sure if Zion requires him to posses a permit anymore.

[Sombeech]

Again, I keep reading criticism from folks saying if it were them, they would accept the fact that they could "save the canyon for another day".

For those of us who live within 5 hours of Zion and go there at least twice a year, yes, we CAN hit it next time.

But for the late 7, this could have been a "bucket list" trip, probably wanting to visit Zion once in their lives, they wouldn't be planning on a next time.

If I were headed to San Diego and wanted to do some surfing at Huntington Beach, and the reports warned of shark attacks, would I still suit up and rent that surfboard once my toes hit the sand and the 5 foot waves were coming in?

I would definitely be struggling with it. I'd probably take a quick look at the water and then jump in. I'd get another quick status report on the sharks, ask justifying questions to make myself feel better like "they can't still be here after all day, right?"

Now the other San Diegans... they would stay out of the water because they could hit it one of the other 364 remaining days in the year. They wouldn't even think about it, they'd just save it for another day.

But man, I've been dreaming of the ocean. I need that salt water to rub my nipples raw on the board or else my whole trip is going to be a bummer.

Just think about it, if you say you'd save the canyon for another day, you can. But me? It's just worth the risk. I may not ever be there again. The risk/reward is worth it to have those sweet facebook pictures.

I think the vast majority of us would have gone through Keyhole if we were these people from California looking for this once in a lifetime trip.

[donnagail]

I print mine at home, too but if I picked it up at 7:30am and was warned of possible afternoon storms, I am pretty sure I would want to head straight to the canyon, get in and get out before noon. Just like hiking a 14er when storm clouds form after noon. I think we all have learned a little more from this unfortunate tragedy.

[hipporump]

The % chance has limited utility. "20%" are the chances it will rain for one moment, in one place, in one timeframe (12 or 24 hours, usually).

I thought a 20% chance of rain meant that 20% of the reported area will get rain? But yes, there is certainly so much more to it than just a percentage. When I grew up in California, I very rarely checked the weather because it was pretty much always the same. Nor did I ever have to deal with monsoons or any of that other funky stuff.

Sombeech, thanks for putting it into perspective. It's important to remember we all have our own set of circumstances and motivations that lead to our decisions. Just because mine might be different than yours doesn't necessarily make it wrong. Unfortunately for these guys, their decision turned out to be the wrong one.

[CanyonFreak]

But man, I've been dreaming of the ocean. I need that salt water to rub my nipples raw on the board or else my whole trip is going to be a bummer.

Just think about it, if you say you'd save the canyon for another day, you can. But me? It's just worth the risk. I may not ever be there again. The risk/reward is worth it to have those sweet facebook pictures.

I think the vast majority of us would have gone through Keyhole if we were these people from California looking for this once in a lifetime trip.

Los Angeles and San diego are a 6-7 hour drive from Zion which does not make them a once in a lifetime trip. Trip to the outer space, Mars..these I would consider a once in a lifetime that might warrant an increased acceptance of risk. The first thing we learn from any course or research is to mitigate the risks we can and plan for the ones we can't. Weather will always fall under the former.

Scott P made a great point regarding the fact that people don't have a backup plan which leads them back to plan A all the time. These were avid hikers, they likely would have found happiness on many of the great hikes in Zion. I have a range of activities for most the places I canyon which include day hiking, backpacking, climbing ect. If canyoneering ins't in the cards, bailing for something else on the list is acceptable, although not preferred. Using reason over emotion to bail is the more heroic move.

We all have felt the disappointment after planning a perfect multi day canyoneering trip and watch the weather deteriorate. I've driven to death valley or escalante and bailed on zion and vs versa and even stayed home. The mentality of a YOLO canyoneer, hiker or surfer is dangerous and one that I believe people should keep to themselves, experienced or not. People new to canyoneering and forum might come to that conclusion on their own but we shouldn't promote that mentality or make it seem like the norm.

Hopefully the next time anyone of us is thinking of descending a canyon with marginal weather, we will think back to keyhole and be reminded that the risk isn't worth any Facebook update or disappointed member who traveled cross country. I think that will be the only real good to come from this.

[kidjan]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/zion-park-names-california-nevada-hikers-killed-flooding-33852850

"Days later, rescuers searching for their bodies found a camera revealing the final group photo."

I'm really interested A) in the photo's timestamp (it should have info about when it was taken) and B) the location of the photo. That looks like it was taken by the entrance to keyhole (i.e. immediately over the pass and down that root-infested slope), but it could also be the middle opening by the first rap? I can't tell.

Which is crazy, because I ran keyhole on September 7th, so....brain must be getting slow.

[Iceaxe]

Where the photo was taken is no mystery. It was taken at the top of the slot and not the first rappel as reported in the media. Also I'll wager the time is 4:30 plus or minus 30 minutes.

[Glenn]

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOUgIvQKcoI

After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.

[Slot Machine]

I thought a 20% chance of rain meant that 20% of the reported area will get rain? But yes, there is certainly so much more to it than just a percentage. When I grew up in California, I very rarely checked the weather because it was pretty much always the same. Nor did I ever have to deal with monsoons or any of that other funky stuff.

Ah, I stand corrected (sort of). But @hipporump (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=26083) is closer than me. I've edited my post above, because it is incorrect. Thank you for the correction hipporump.

A review for aspiring amateur weather forecasters:

According to the U.S. National Weather Service (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service) (NWS), POP is the probability of exceedance (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Probability_of_exceedance&action=edit&redlink=1) that more than 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) of precipitation will fall in a single spot, averaged over the forecast area.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation#cite_note-NWSFAQ-1) This can be expressed mathematically:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/math/0/b/f/0bfad01146a81dcb68d1154c6ca7db6b.png[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation#cite_note-NWSFAQ-1)


C = the confidence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting#Probability_assessment) that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area.
A = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

For instance, if there is a 100% probability (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability) of rain covering one half of a city, and a 0% probability of rain on the other half of the city, the POP for the city would be 50%. A 50% chance of a rainstorm covering the entire city would also lead to a POP of 50%. The POP thus usually expresses a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage.
Note that the POP measure is meaningless unless it is associated with a period of time. NWS forecasts commonly use POP defined over 12-hour periods (POP12), though 6-hour periods (POP6) and other measures are also published. A "daytime" POP12 means from 6 am to 6 pm.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation#cite_note-2)

[Slot Machine]

Los Angeles and San diego are a 6-7 hour drive from Zion which does not make them a once in a lifetime trip. Trip to the outer space, Mars..these I would consider a once in a lifetime that might warrant an increased acceptance of risk. The first thing we learn from any course or research is to mitigate the risks we can and plan for the ones we can't. Weather will always fall under the former.

Very good post @CanyonFreak (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=24893).

But I'll add that people look at risk differently, and each have a God-given set of skills to deal with risk differently. Each of us thrive off risk differently (some find risk repugnant and don’t thrive at all, and I understand those folks too).

Steph and I went and saw Meru (http://www.merufilm.com/) last night. It is funny how much we relate the guys that climb those mountains. They must push the limits of adventure, lest they go mad.

They stand on the line, where ‘risky behaviour’ wanders into ‘recklessness’, never knowing exactly how far their toes are dangling across that invisible boundary. I consider @Sombeech (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=6)'s mindset risky, but not reckless, and completely relate to his point of view. Indeed, you do only live once, and I’m not going to my grave thinking about the ‘what ifs’.


The mentality of a YOLO canyoneer, hiker or surfer is dangerous and one that I believe people should keep to themselves, experienced or not. People new to canyoneering and forum might come to that conclusion on their own but we shouldn't promote that mentality or make it seem like the norm.

I think there is nothing wrong with writing about flirting with risk. We can all learn from others’ tales of approaching the edge, then each of us can decide how far back we want to stand.

Personally, I greatly appreciate the stories from Psycho D, Sandthrax, No Kidding and Poe (among dozens of others). Those experiences have taught me great things, without great amounts of suffering.

I even appreciate the stories about Fiddlesticks, though I’d never use one. :nod:

[dlofting]

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOUgIvQKcoI

After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.

That's a great analysis......both drainage areas that the storm hit are very small. All those people were just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

[Sombeech]

I know people in Ogden that have never been to Bear Lake. I know people in St George who have never been to Zion NP, nor Las Vegas. So the distance isn't always a factor, but if you are pretty sure you're not going to be back to a certain place anytime soon, and you've prepared for it, bought gear specifically for it, practiced rappelling for it, you're more likely to take the chance.

But if you know you'll be back, it's easier to save it for next time.

[Slot Machine]

WHOA, jaw dropping stuff. Look at the distance between that cloud and the northern margin of the storm. That is pretty much nothing... :eek2:

81572

Thanks for posting that video @Glenn (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=23636). Strong work David Rankin.

[kidjan]

Where the photo was taken is no mystery. It was taken at the top of the slot and not the first rappel as reported in the media. Also I'll wager the time is 4:30 plus or minus 30 minutes.

By "top of the slot" I'm assuming you mean the entrance to keyhole (i.e. bottom of steep root-infested slope)?

It can't be 4:30, because the rain was already pounding the keyhole basin around 3:45 according to the video posted above, unless his timestamps are off. Looks like keyhole was being pounded from about 3:40 to 4:00 PM. My guess is that photo is more like 2:30 or 3 PM. Although that video calls into question the account of time by the party that passed them. I'd assume the video is more likely correct.

[jman]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

The "standard route" (drawn in red) starts at the road and hikes up to the saddle and drops down the 100ft+ to the canyon opening right there. That opening is referred to as "Middle Keyhole". The section where the 1st rap is (although yes, it can be downclimbed) is referred to as "Lower Keyhole". The "Upper" section is not done too often - just because you have to climb back out of the drainage and hike another 0.24 miles to the start.

81573

[kidjan]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

Yup, that's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks. So they were at the opening of middle which is what I suspected, but wasn't sure about.

[mzamp]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

The "standard route" (drawn in red) starts at the road and hikes up to the saddle and drops down the 100ft+ to the canyon opening right there. That opening is referred to as "Middle Keyhole". The section where the 1st rap is (although yes, it can be downclimbed) is referred to as "Lower Keyhole". The "Upper" section is not done too often - just because you have to climb back out of the drainage and hike another 0.24 miles to the start.

81573

I thought there was a bolt and a short rap right at the entrance to the middle section? But I have a bad memory sometimes. Plus I have only done Keyhole once and I was pretending to be lead through the canyon by my friends who were learning the "lead" role.

[kidjan]

I thought there was a bolt and a short rap right at the entrance to the middle section?

there is not. the first rap is correctly marked in the overview jman posted. the yellow section requires no rappelling, largest drop is maybe 4-5 feet or so.

[kidjan]

I was thinking more about David Rankin's analysis...and the time displayed isn't Utah time, it's off by an hour. So I was wrong: the storm did hit keyhole between 4:40 and 5, like NPS stated. David mentioned that at one point in the video and I missed it. Sorry for the confusion.

Also, the storm may not have moved "north" to keyhole--David may be misinterpreting precipitation data. The more likely explanation is a storm front was coming in from the west (as is typical in Utah), and it was angled like a "\", which makes the precipitation appear to move "north". Given that Colorado City and Keyhole are roughly 25 miles apart as the bird flies, and the flooding was roughly 25 minutes apart....that storm system would have to be moving north at sixty miles an hour, which is unlikely.

Apologies if anyone finds this tedious; I'm just interested in the timeline/conditions, and whether or not this was "bad luck" or inexperience, or a combination of the two. i think most likely both, but I can't help but ponder if I would have made the same mistake

[oldno7]

much closer to 15 miles apart from where the storm hit in Colorado City.

[hikemasterpa]

Just wondering if anyone in the group has ever been caught in a flash flood. If so,what were the circumstances and what did you do to get out of it? I realize the sheer volume and force of the water must be so powerful, but if it happened in the Narrows for instance, any chance you could float/swim on top until you could get to safety?

[kidjan]

Just wondering if anyone in the group has ever been caught in a flash flood. If so,what were the circumstances and what did you do to get out of it? I realize the sheer volume and force of the water must be so powerful, but if it happened in the Narrows for instance, any chance you could float/swim on top until you could get to safety?

I've never been in one, but the few videos/pictures I've seen of canyons in zion flashing lead me to believe if you're in the water, you are super, super dead.

[kidjan]

much closer to 15 miles apart from where the storm hit in Colorado City.

I measured on google maps; ~25 miles as the bird files.

[Scott P]

Just wondering if anyone in the group has ever been caught in a flash flood.

I haven't, but my dad and brother did (more than 25 years ago). My other brother and I crossed the creek in Dark Canyon and minutes late it was a raging torrent that hit my dad and brother. My dad lost his glasses, but otherwise, no real harm was done. Dark Canyon is a wide canyon though, it would have been different if it were a slot canyon.

I have witnessed several other flash floods (Including the gigantic floods of 2006), but I've never been caught in them.


The more likely explanation is a storm front was coming in from the west (as is typical in Utah), and it was angled like a "\", which makes the precipitation appear to move "north"

Actually almost all monsoon moisture comes from the south:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Monsoonmapb.JPG


Monsoon moisture almost never comes from the west. You seem to be confusing frontal passages (which usually do come from the west [or NW or SW]) with monsoonal moisture. They both produce precipitation, but for different reasons.

[Iceaxe]

Just wondering if anyone in the group has ever been caught in a flash flood. If so,what were the circumstances and what did you do to get out of it?

Depends on what you mean by "caught".

I have witnessed literally hundreds of flash floods. At one time I owned a 32' off-shore racing cigarette and one of our favorite pass times was running down thunderstorms on lake Powell and watching the canyons flash.

I've probably witnessed a couple dozen flash floods while canyoneering including the Black Hole, Buckskin, Leprechaun, Spry, Echo and Pine Creek to name a few. Usually commonsense tells you when it's a good time to find a good hiding spot and wait out the storm. When a canyon flashes the flood is usually short lived. Often over in 60 minutes.

I have also canyoneered Pine Creek and the Black Hole on the tail end of a flash flood and its actually very fun as the water is bathtub warm from flowing over the slickrock, everything is filled with water and the bubbles (we called it Indian soap when I was a kid) can be 10' deep and zero visibility. When we did Pine Creek the ranger was standing on the bridge screaming at us to stop or we would die (we pretended not to hear).

Also not all flash floods are huge monsters. While hiking Paria one caught us and it was actually kind of cute as the canyon was about 20' wide and the wall of water was about 2' high. There was very little debris in the water and we just stood our ground. It was moving slow enough we could have out run it downstream for a distance if required.

Anyhoo.... that's some of my experience.

[ratagonia]

I measured on google maps; ~25 miles as the bird files.

I get 14.5 miles on Topo!

Tom

[ratagonia]

Also, the storm may not have moved "north" to keyhole--David may be misinterpreting precipitation data.

???

Perhaps you did not watch the video.

David steps through the data which clearly shows the storm moving from Hildale north to Keyhole.

???

Tom :moses:

[kidjan]

???

Perhaps you did not watch the video.

David steps through the data which clearly shows the storm moving from Hildale north to Keyhole.



I watched it repeatedly.

That's a precipitation layer on the map, not the direction in which a storm front is actually moving. Think of a storm moving west to east shaped like a "\" hitting mountains running vertically (which is pretty much every range in Utah except Uintas, and also this area as well); on a precipitation layer it's going to look like it's moving from south to north, but the cloud front is moving west to east.

I think I'm likely wrong based on the monsoon comments (thanks for that, by the way--good info), but it isn't clearly evident the storm is moving north because that's a precipitation layer, not cloud cover.

The reason I care is I think most people in Utah are going to anticipate stuff coming in from the west, not the south.

[kidjan]

Yep, I remeasured--I stand corrected: ~15 miles

[ratagonia]

I watched it repeatedly.

That's a precipitation layer on the map, not the direction in which a storm front is actually moving. Think of a storm moving west to east shaped like a "\" hitting mountains running vertically (which is pretty much every range in Utah except Uintas, and also this area as well); on a precipitation layer it's going to look like it's moving from south to north, but the cloud front is moving west to east.

I think I'm likely wrong based on the monsoon comments (thanks for that, by the way--good info), but it isn't clearly evident the storm is moving north because that's a precipitation layer, not cloud cover.

The reason I care is I think most people in Utah are going to anticipate stuff coming in from the west, not the south.

"It's a precipitation layer, not a storm." (paraphraseish)

I think you are trying really, really hard to miss the obvious.

Did the storm (aka precipitation layer) just north of Hildale dissipate, and then another storm (aka precipitation layer) swoop suddenly in and suddenly appear BOOM 15 miles to the north, 25 minutes later.

I realize the data is jumpy, but the storm moved north onto Hildale, and then continued north onto Keyhole.

Not sure where you live, but down here in Zion, the weather usually comes from the South (ish), maybe South-SouthWest. Usually. Can come from other directions, but most of them, on the radar timelapse, come from the SSW.

I just don't see what you are seeing or maybe, i don't understand how you are not seeing what seems obvious...

Tom

[Sombeech]

When we did Pine Creek the ranger was standing on the bridge screaming at us to stop or we would die (we pretended not to hear).

:lol8:

[oldno7]

Monsoon storms that hit Southern Utah, have a habit of coming from the South.

On occasion, slightly South west.

I don't recall any monsoon season storms coming directly from the West.

Our Monsoonal moisture by definition, comes from the the Gulf of Mexico, pretty much South of us.

A low pressure, oscillating across the four corners region, directs this flow.

Back on topic, these canyoneers last chance to view the Southern skies was at the saddle, prior to dropping in.

Any storm system South of highway 9 at the first rappel, would be impossible to see.

Jim said when he started in and passed this group, the sky was blue, I trust/believe Jim's observation.

Not sure what point you're trying to make(kidjan) but it appears unfounded.

Northern Utah weather patterns are not Southern Utah weather patterns.

[oldno7]

on a related note--I've backed out of many canyons due to threats of rain.

The most painful decision was at the crossroads in Imlay.(0% chance)

We backed out and it rained on us all the way down, at times hard.

Go/No go decisions, need to be based on current, viewable "canyon/drainage" conditions,

For me, afternoon canyons are always a no go, during monsoon.

Some canyon's drainage's cannot be entirely seen such as White.

[Scott P]

That's a precipitation layer on the map, not the direction in which a storm front is actually moving. Think of a storm moving west to east shaped like a "\" hitting mountains running vertically (which is pretty much every range in Utah except Uintas, and also this area as well); on a precipitation layer it's going to look like it's moving from south to north, but the cloud front is moving west to east.

No offence, but you do not understand weather. Monsoonal moisture is not a storm front. A frontal passage is a boundary between two air masses of different densities and temperature. That is not what causes monsoonal moisture. Monsoonal moisture comes from clockwise rotation around a high pressure system along a thermal low. If a high pressure system is centered around Oklahoma and Texas, clockwise rotation pulls up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California. That's why monsoonal moisture comes from the south. Occasionally, monsoonal moisture can collide with a cold front coming from the northwest and then you have a big storm, but that's not what happened here.

The moisture came from the south as does almost all monsoonal moisture. The only way monsoonal moisture could come from the west is if the Gulf of Mexico was somehow made into land and if the high pressure system was positioned over the western or central part of it.

[Bo_Beck]

I measured on google maps; ~25 miles as the bird files.

I measured on Nat. Geo. TOPO. Close to 15 miles.

During warmer months sunlight heats the surfaces of both land and oceans, but land temperatures rise more quickly. As the land's surface becomes warmer, the air above it expands and an area of low pressure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_low) develops. Meanwhile, the ocean remains at a lower temperature than the land, and the air above it retains a higher pressure. This difference in pressure causes sea breezes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_breezes) to blow from the ocean to the land, bringing moist air inland. This moist air rises to a higher altitude over land and then it flows back toward the ocean (thus completing the cycle). However, when the air rises, and while it is still over the land, the air cools (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule-Thomson_effect). This decreases the air's ability to hold water (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_humidity), and this causes precipitation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitation_(meteorology)) over the land. This is why summer monsoons cause so much rain over land.

[Bo_Beck]

"It's a precipitation layer, not a storm." (paraphraseish)

I think you are trying really, really hard to miss the obvious.

Did the storm (aka precipitation layer) just north of Hildale dissipate, and then another storm (aka precipitation layer) swoop suddenly in and suddenly appear BOOM 15 miles to the north, 25 minutes later.

I realize the data is jumpy, but the storm moved north onto Hildale, and then continued north onto Keyhole.

Not sure where you live, but down here in Zion, the weather usually comes from the South (ish), maybe South-SouthWest. Usually. Can come from other directions, but most of them, on the radar timelapse, come from the SSW.

I just don't see what you are seeing or maybe, i don't understand how you are not seeing what seems obvious...

Tom

In my carefree hanggliding years 1970-1979, we looked for forming cumulus clouds (the puffy ones with a flat bottom). These clouds were an indication of of updraft generally somewhere close to directly underneath, but not always! Often times the winds not underneath blew in a direction away from the cloud, however when approaching closer to underneath the cloud, generally the winds blew towards the cloud, i.e. the winds in the "monsoonal" uplift near Hildale may have been coming westerly, northerly or even easterly bringing other lower clouds appearing on the radar those directions. Still....the monsoonal moisture associated with the torrential microbursts came from the south.

[kidjan]

"It's a precipitation layer, not a storm." (paraphraseish)

I think you are trying really, really hard to miss the obvious.

I'm not trying to "miss the obvious" (it's not like I start my mornings out trying to be oblivious); I'm trying to understand things. I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

My only point is a precipitation layer doesn't necessarily indicate the direction in which something is moving. If such a thing were true, there would be a permanent cloud front sitting over the costal range of Oregon, but it's just west -> east moving cloud fronts depositing rain as they strike the coastal range.

It doesn't matter much. I think most likely explanation is monsoonal.

[kidjan]

No offence, but you do not understand weather.

I don't take offense to anything.


Monsoonal moisture is not a storm front.

I never said that it was. What I am trying to say: a precipitation layer does not necessarily imply the directional movement of a storm. However, for the now fourth time, I agree it's most likely monsoonal weather patterns moving north.

[flatiron]

"Back on topic, these canyoneers last chance to view the Southern skies was at the saddle, prior to dropping in."

In following and reading everything about this tragedy this has been my biggest question. At the saddle the group would have a very good, not perfect, 360 view. Correct? ( I have done Key several times but not in 5 yrs so memory not so good) But also a last chance looking south. At what had to be a very immense fast moving storm, yes?
What did they see? Is there a time stamp on the picture of them at the bottom from the saddle all geared up? I know they were 7, and not fast, but still how could they miss the incoming storm from the saddle? 7 newbies on 1 rope is going to take a lonngggg time.
Did they miss it, or misjudge it? Or were they that slow as to not see a storm at the saddle, then get caught 1-2 hrs later?

Questions I know we may never be able to answer, and I don't want to speculate. But it makes me really think - because I too am very curious having been in this situation several times, at the Hogs, Leps, and Ticaboo. We had to check the weather report, sky, drainage, everything and then make a call. Never got caught, or even close. Was that us making a good call, or luck?
Something like this just makes you rethink everything

[ratagonia]

I'm not trying to "miss the obvious" (it's not like I start my mornings out trying to be oblivious); I'm trying to understand things. I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

My only point is a precipitation layer doesn't necessarily indicate the direction in which something is moving. If such a thing were true, there would be a permanent cloud front sitting over the coastal range of Oregon, but it's just west -> east moving cloud fronts depositing rain as they strike the coastal range.

It doesn't matter much. I think most likely explanation is monsoonal.

Correct, a static picture does not indicate the direction of motion. One could be mistaken to take the wind direction at ground level to represent the atmospheric flow direction.

But the video includes time-lapse, which CLEARLY indicated motion to the north.

And just so you know, the flow down here has been monsoonal since about June 1st, with a couple weeks of non-monsoonal. No clouds in the sky today, but usually the Wundermap shows flow to the north.

Tom

[ratagonia]

"Back on topic, these canyoneers last chance to view the Southern skies was at the saddle, prior to dropping in."

In following and reading everything about this tragedy this has been my biggest question. At the saddle the group would have a very good, not perfect, 360 view. Correct? ( I have done Key several times but not in 5 yrs so memory not so good) But also a last chance looking south. At what had to be a very immense fast moving storm, yes?
What did they see? Is there a time stamp on the picture of them at the bottom from the saddle all geared up? I know they were 7, and not fast, but still how could they miss the incoming storm from the saddle? 7 newbies on 1 rope is going to take a lonngggg time.

Did they miss it, or misjudge it? Or were they that slow as to not see a storm at the saddle, then get caught 1-2 hrs later?

Questions I know we may never be able to answer, and I don't want to speculate. But it makes me really think - because I too am very curious having been in this situation several times, at the Hogs, Leps, and Ticaboo. We had to check the weather report, sky, drainage, everything and then make a call. Never got caught, or even close. Was that us making a good call, or luck?

Something like this just makes you rethink everything

Information is not useful without experience to place it in context.

I wasn't there, but my impression is that the storm was not "massive". It was concentrated and made a direct hit on the Keyhole drainage.

It's good to be lucky. And it's good to be good. It's even better to be both lucky AND good.

Tom

[dlofting]

I wasn't there, but my impression is that the storm was not "massive". It was concentrated and made a direct hit on the Keyhole drainage.

It's good to be lucky. And it's good to be good. It's even better to be both lucky AND good.

Tom

.....and I think that sums it up pretty closely.....

[accadacca]

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOUgIvQKcoI

After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.
Cool video! Nicely done. :2thumbs:

The more I learn about the situation, the more it makes me think they got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.


Were they warned about possible flash floods? Yes
Did they take a chance, whether they knew it or not? Yes
Did they get caught in a record-breaking weather event? Yes

[kidjan]

The more I learn about the situation, the more it makes me think they got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.


Were they warned about possible flash floods? Yes
Did they take a chance, whether they knew it or not? Yes
Did they get caught in a record-breaking weather event? Yes



Your first bullet point is the one that hits home with me. Given that it was 40% chance of rain, probable flash flooding, and predicted afternoon storms when they pulled the permit...and then 50% when they called back later....they should have gone for a nice hike somewhere safe and dull. I've wimped out on way less than that.

The "afternoon showers" element should probably be stressed more by the park. Those afternoon weather events can be stupid serious. Rocky Mountain National Park comes to mind--when they warn about afternoon lightning storms and you're dumb enough to get caught in one....you won't make that mistake twice, assuming you're still alive. Bring your brown trousers.

[flatiron]

The "afternoon showers" element should probably be stressed more by the park. Those afternoon weather events can be stupid serious. Rocky Mountain National Park comes to mind--when they warn about afternoon lightning storms and you're dumb enough to get caught in one....you won't make that mistake twice, assuming you're still alive. Bring your brown trousers.

I agree with that but I in no way blame the park. Tom disagreed with my comment on a 'massive storm'. What I meant to say was 'massive cell'. We get storm cells all the time during monsoon in Colorado, very hit or miss. Extreme rain here, nothing 10 miles away. Learning weather patterns and understanding the monsoon sequence in Utah and Colorado is extremely important when hiking/climbing mountains or canyons. Until I moved out here 25 yrs ago I had no idea, and initially made several mistakes concerning weather. I talked with my brother about this right after the storm. 25 years our 1st summer in Colo we hiked Long's Peak together, a tough 15 mile 14'r - and we were woefully unprepared. No idea what we were really getting into. Young, athletic, in shape and just assumed all was well. No weather issues luckily but I got altitude sickness, and did not even know what it was.
So yes I can see people from 'out of state' not understanding. There is a learning curve.

The whole 'experienced hiker' thing is pretty relative. Would any experienced hiker from NY or Mich understand the monsoon?
And then also flash floods? And then their lack of experience in rappelling which translates into very slow progress?
Throw in a direct hit by a storm cell, bad luck, and you have trouble. In this case a horrible tragedy.

I am heading out tomorrow to Utah for several days of canyons - and this is definitely is on my mind. That group seemed like people who knew and loved being outside and exploring, loved adventure. How many pictures of ourselves or others have we seen just as they looked in their last pic - smiling, excited, raring to enjoy this new sport?
My heart and thoughts go out to them.

[Bo_Beck]

So yes I can see people from 'out of state' not understanding. There is a learning curve.The whole 'experienced hiker' thing is pretty relative. Would any experienced hiker from NY or Mich understand the monsoon?
And then also flash floods?
Throw in a direct hit by a storm cell, bad luck, and you have trouble. In this case a horrible tragedy.My heart and thoughts go out to them.

Heavy rain was already falling late Wednesday, and at least one person died in flash floods in Spartanburg, officials said.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Wednesday declared a state of emergency, and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory ordered state agencies to prepare for floods.

[Scott Card]

So Bo, are you saying that it rains hard and floods in places other than the slot canyons of Utah? Incredible! :haha:

[dlofting]

So Bo, are you saying that it rains hard and floods in places other than the slot canyons of Utah? Incredible! :haha:

I know your post was "tongue in cheek", but to reply in a more serious vein.....it definitely does rain here in the Pacific North West.....and we do get floods that can cause a lot of damage, sometimes deaths if people try to cross a creek in flood. What we don't get are flash floods.....because the ground is fairly soft it absorbs a lot of the runoff and the watercourse levels rise more slowly. We just don't have anything that compares to the slickrock of Utah.

[kidjan]

I agree with that but I in no way blame the park.

I'm definitely not blaming the park, although I think they should be more blunt in monsoon season: afternoon storm warning = no joke. Reconsider your trip.


Until I moved out here 25 yrs ago I had no idea, and initially made several mistakes concerning weather.

Exactly: if you don't live in an area that has monsoon (or late afternoon) weather patterns, it's not something you understand. Which is how you end up running for your life in the worst thunderstorm imaginable in Rocky Mountain National Park when some afternoon crap broadsides you; you don't even know it's something you should be concerned with. That experience was bad enough that to this day I have anxiety around lightning.

[Glenn]

Update: Zion National Park Investigates September Flash Flood Deaths

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2015/10/06/apc-zion-national-park-investigates-septembers-flash-flood-related-deaths/#.VhPuafn2BQI

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyon last month before a panel convenes to assess what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous.

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AP-Zion-20150916.jpg (http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AP-Zion-20150916.jpg)

FILE – In this Sept. 16, 2015 file photo, search and rescue team members place a litter near a net for helicopter transport after finding a body in Pine Creek, in Zion National Park, near Springdale, Utah. Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyonon Sept. 15 before a panel assesses what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous. | AP Photo/Rick Bowmer; St. George News

Investigators are talking to family members and examining the communications the group made in the hours before they canyon filled with fast-moving water from a powerful storm on Sept. 14, said Zion National Park Superintendent Jeff Bradybaugh.

The investigation could lead to changes in the permit system that controls who enters the park’s 21 narrow slot canyons, whose unique geological quirks also make them deadly. The system was designed to protect the wilderness, not necessarily people, by limiting the number of explorers, Bradybaugh said. Rangers don’t evaluate people’s skills or close canyons due to weather until flooding has already begun. By then, it can already be too late for people inside.

The panel, which could include outside experts as well as parks officials, will likely convene by late November. It comes at a park where the number of visitors has grown 65 percent over the last 5 years but stagnant budgets have kept staffing levels largely unchanged, Bradybaugh said.

Here’s a look at what authorities will be considering after the flooding deaths:

Weather warnings
Parks officials could consider restricting access to canyons more often during the rainy season, or figuring out whether they could warn hikers in the backcountry.

Flash flooding was considered “probable” when the group collected their permit on Sept. 14, one step below “expected,” the most serious warning on a four-step rating system.

That warning was given four times during the month of September, with three of those warnings clustered on the days before, during and after the deaths, according to parks officials. Still, a total of three groups got permits for that canyon on Sept. 14, and at least one completed the route safely.

The canyons were closed after flooding started, but too late to warn the group from California and Nevada because they were already in the backcountry.

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AP-Keyhole-Canyon.jpg (http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AP-Keyhole-Canyon.jpg)

This 2013 photo provided by the National Park Service shows canyoneering in Keyhole Canyon, in Zion National Park, near Springdale, Utah. Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyon on Sept. 14, 2015, before a panel assesses what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous. | National Park Service via AP, St. George News

Skill assessment
Though Zion rangers ask detailed questions before giving a permit, they don’t bar people from canyons based on skill level, something that could be re-examined, Bradybaugh said.

Prospective climbers of Alaska’s Denali, for example, undergo a detailed examination of skills and a required 60-day waiting period, though climbing the mountain typically takes weeks and is a much bigger undertaking than the two-hour excursion the group had planned at Zion.

Though more-skilled climbers can reach exit points and move through canyons more quickly, people already inside a slot canyon when a flash flood hits are often overwhelmed by water within moments — regardless of skill.

Increased education
At Utah’s Arches National Park, getting a permit to hike through a labyrinth of red-rock formations called Fiery Furnace requires everyone in the group to pick up the permit in person, hear warnings from park rangers and watch an educational video.

At Zion, only one member of the group has to pick up the permit. Requiring everyone who’s going into the canyon to be there means more people hear weather warnings directly and a video could drive home potential dangers of rain that typically hits in the afternoon, hours after most people pick up their permits.

There is a volume question: Zion issued more than 9,200 canyoneering permits over the last year, according to park records.

[dougr]

Thanks for the post. Willful disobedience coming.

[Glenn]

I'm generally opposed to any regulations or changes in procedures that would put more responsibility on the NPS to ensure park visitor safety. One, because poor funding and low staff levels make this difficult. Two, because individuals should be accountable, not the NPS.

However, I'm not opposed to requiring all permit participants (i.e., those for canyoneering or rock climbing or backcountry) to be present for the permit pickup and for receiving direct skill assessment, safety reminders, and Leave No Trace exposure.

[ratagonia]

I'm generally opposed to any regulations or changes in procedures that would put more responsibility on the NPS to ensure park visitor safety. One, because poor funding and low staff levels make this difficult. Two, because individuals should be accountable, not the NPS.

However, I'm not opposed to requiring all permit participants (i.e., those for canyoneering or rock climbing or backcountry) to be present for the permit pickup and for receiving direct skill assessment, safety reminders, and Leave No Trace exposure.

This is actually a HUGE change, and would make canyoneering in Zion extremely difficult.

Skill assessment? There is no skill assessment. There is an opportunity for the Wilderness Desk staff to try to persuade the conspicuously totally incompetent to do something else- but it is hard to call this "skill assessment".

One result of this added layer of obstacle is that the general level of proficiency of canyoneers in Zion would decrease. Proficient canyoneers tend to be bureaucracy-averse, and tend to go elsewhere as the number of hoops increases.

Level of skill going down ==> more accidents.

Tom :moses:

[shagdeuce]

This is actually a HUGE change, and would make canyoneering in Zion extremely difficult.
Agreed. A lot of us show up the night before (after the desk closes) with express permits and get an early start the next morning. Requiring everyone to be present for the permit = picking up the permit the morning of the hike = later starts = more accidents.

[Iceaxe]

If the park does skill assessments they become legally responsible next time there is an accident because of lack of skills. Not a road the NPS wants to head down

[kidjan]

One result of this added layer of obstacle is that the general level of proficiency of canyoneers in Zion would decrease. Proficient canyoneers tend to be bureaucracy-averse, and tend to go elsewhere as the number of hoops increases.

Level of skill going down ==> more accidents.

I don't follow that logic.

There's fewer people overall (all the pros bail), and there's probably fewer noobies as well because more of them are deterred by the additional bureaucracy. Fewer people ==> fewer accidents (possibly a higher *rate* of accidents though, like if they were looking at rates per 100k canyoneers or something, which would be the statistically honest way of looking at it)

In any event, I agree about the experienced people bailing. I've been canyoneering for a couple years now, and the permitting process/bureaucracy/crowds of Zion start to wear on you.

[patto]

Hi all, some of you might remember me from the thread "Advice for a visiting Aussie - What region should I visit? (In UT/AZ)"
http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthread.php?74558-Advice-for-a-visiting-Aussie-What-region-should-I-visit-(In-UT-AZ)

This is flash flooding incident was particularly poignant to me as it occurred a week before I was due to go canyoning in Zion. I've always erred on the side of excess caution when it comes to potential thunderstorms but this event just hammered home the point.


If the park does skill assessments they become legally responsible next time there is an accident because of lack of skills. Not a road the NPS wants to head down
I agree this wholeheartedly. It is a dangerous path to head down. The permit system should be to limit numbers, NOT as a skill assessment. (Though they did ask me about equipment; wetsuits, helmets, ascenders, emergency dry clothing.)

I'm still banging my head against the wall regarding some local authority here which decided that official bolting would be a good idea as commercial guides use the area. :crazycobasa: What followed was expensive professionals being hired for bolting and testing. Metal plaques being fixed next to bolts to certify that they've been tested. http://www.vicclimb.org.au/file/id/309
(In contrast 99% of the canyoning/climbing areas in Australia are unregulated. We have as many stupid regulations as USA, but fortunately this doesn't normally extend to our National Parks and our wilderness.)


For those that are interested I had a great time in Pine Creek and Behunin. I would have preferred to do more it was limited due to only a week's window, forecast bad weather, closed roads, car issues and two partners who had minimal canyoning experience. I did get out and had a more leisurely time in Escalante away from the crowds. :2thumbs:

[ratagonia]

I don't follow that logic.

There's fewer people overall (all the pros bail), and there's probably fewer noobies as well because more of them are deterred by the additional bureaucracy. Fewer people ==> fewer accidents (possibly a higher *rate* of accidents though, like if they were looking at rates per 100k canyoneers or something, which would be the statistically honest way of looking at it)

In any event, I agree about the experienced people bailing. I've been canyoneering for a couple years now, and the permitting process/bureaucracy/crowds of Zion start to wear on you.

I'm not making a logical argument. This is an observation found by studies.

When areas come under more burdensome management, the regular users slide away to less burdensome places. The less experienced users do not know that the management program is burdensome, and come anyway.

Activity in Zion is limited (to a considerable extent) by the availability of permits of the popular canyons. So creating more burdens is unlikely to significantly decrease usage.

Tom

[flatiron]

Heavy rain was already falling late Wednesday, and at least one person died in flash floods in Spartanburg, officials said.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Wednesday declared a state of emergency, and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory ordered state agencies to prepare for floods.

Now that is a smart sharp relevant post, huh? Makes a good connection to canyoneering, and the knowledge and decision making process of accessing danger while doing so.

Nice cheap shot - well done sir.

[Bo_Beck]

Now that is a smart sharp relevant post, huh? Makes a good connection to canyoneering, and the knowledge and decision making process of accessing danger while doing so.

Nice cheap shot - well done sir.

OK Then! How often have you heard of the folks that refuse to abandon their properties or locale even though the warnings are of emminent Hurricane, Cyclone, Typhoon, Tornadoes? How often have these warnings suggested not to drive across a swollen, flowing street and they figured they could anyway? People are curious, and impatient. (period). Gee willigers! Suckin' a cumra! Have at it!

[harness man]

There is definitely a relevant point here (do not see any cheap shots- especially with Bo's search and rescue cred).
A comment was made earlier about fishing being a safe sport, but of all the lightning deaths in the U.S. every year many of them are fisherman.
One of the determinative causes: people ignore "chance of thunderstorm" warnings.
Ironically, they will usually stay home if it is raining.
"human nature" is an important consideration when trying to prevent future tragedies.

[accadacca]

I don't think a "skill assessment" makes any sense, but what about watching a video that talks about canyoneering at a high level and includes flash flood dangers?

[flatiron]

OK Then! How often have you heard of the folks that refuse to abandon their properties or locale even though the warnings are of emminent Hurricane, Cyclone, Typhoon, Tornadoes? How often have these warnings suggested not to drive across a swollen, flowing street and they figured they could anyway? People are curious, and impatient. (period). Gee willigers! Suckin' a cumra! Have at it!

Gee willigers yourself. So your point is people are impatient and curious, nothing we can do, nothing to learn, just move on?
I know you are SAR but that seems incredibly cynical. Do you NOT believe in educating noobs? Or anyone?
Or maybe you know something about this group we don't? Please tell us ! Was this caused by impatience?

Again, what does your point have to do with canyoneering?
This group was described as 'experienced hikers' by friends and family. My point was and is that experienced hiker is not relevant when is comes to canyoneering. There is a uniqueness to canyons, and of the dangers from rain/weather unlike other areas. Unique from your flooding in VA or NC. Monsoonal rain, slick rock, size of drainage, speed of group ( are they fast, moderate or slow noobs), do they have climbing skills, etc. If not knowledgeable they are in danger, if so it will be an enormous help.
I think it is possible and wise to TRY and help and educate newcomers/out of staters of these differences. If they choose to be impatient, or curious, or not educate themselves so be it.

I believe the canyoneering community can, and maybe, should try to help. Especially newcomers.
Ya know, like Park Rangers explaining that the 50% chance of rain is at 4pm, but only 5% from 8-3pm. Our monsoon season means it is clear in the morning but storms in pm, do the canyon NOW. That slickrock exponentially increases rainwater size and force, that the canyon you have a permit for has a big drainage and might not be safe even hours after rain, etc.

How about canyoneering courses/Guide Services teaching these elements and not just how to rap and tie knots? Maybe they do I hope so, I have not taken one. I do know the climbing class I took taught weather, safety, map & compass, gear, clothing, etc.
Maybe I'm way off but it seems to me that knowledge of how rain and weather work in conjunction with slot canyons is pretty vital info. Maybe the best beta a person can have.

Is that too much? Is that out of line? I understand each person/group has the final responsibility but I do not believe we are all condemned by our impatience or curiosity.
So maybe we shall agree to disagree.

[harness man]

Hi Flatiron
Are you a Zion Express member at Zion Park, or have you picked up permits at the visitor's center?
I think they provide a very thorough warning including many of the points you discuss.
I am a climber (like yourself, I assume) and I look at canyoneering like mountaineering (the packs are certainly big!).
When I go into the wilderness to bag a peak I do NOT expect hand holding from any government agency, and wonder
why anyone else would.
It will be very disappointing to me if Canyons get treated like commercial rock climbing gyms (and I LIKE rock climbing gyms).
Really am unsure where there is any disagreement?
None of us want people hurt in canyons...

[Mountaineer]

I don't think a "skill assessment" makes any sense, but what about watching a video that talks about canyoneering at a high level and includes flash flood dangers?
That is in place today?

[Iceaxe]

I don't think a "skill assessment" makes any sense, but what about watching a video that talks about canyoneering at a high level and includes flash flood dangers?
How about the government just gets completely out of the business of being our mommy.

[uintafly]

How about the government just gets completely out of the business of being our mommy.

Wouldn't that be nice!!! Let's manage the canyons the same way we manage backcountry skiing. The gov't provides some cash for UAC and grateful users donate some as well, but if I die in an avalanche it's still 100% my fault.

[deagol]

I have to agree with the idea of not asking the NPS to "do more to protect us from nature". This accident was a tragedy, no doubt, but it was also not the end of the world (that statement sounds way more cynical than I want it to, but can't think of better words right now). People have a responsibility to educate themselves and to protect themselves, and taking a class does not do all of that. More rules can't protect people from serious bad luck or bad judgment without impacting the rest of us to an unacceptable degree IMO. I don't believe canyoneering is the right pursuit for people who want a nanny state.

To answer the question "nothing to do, nothing to learn, just move on?": I think there, of course, are "things to learn" from this incident but not that those things translate into a need to impose another layer of rules. One of the things to learn is that there is no substitute for good judgment. If any group does need to make some changes, it would be Meetup groups like this, not the NPS.
Another one: no matter what you tell (i.e. the printed warning for the permit) many people will just ignore it. This ties right back into judgment and maybe even hubris?

As some probably heard, another person just died on Long's Peak (since Long's Peak was used as example in this thread) and there seems to be no push to clamp down on that pursuit.

[accadacca]

That is in place today?

Is it required for anyone who enters a canyon in Zion?

[Bo_Beck]

Gee willigers yourself. So your point is people are impatient and curious, nothing we can do, nothing to learn, just move on?
I know you are SAR but that seems incredibly cynical. Do you NOT believe in educating noobs? Or anyone?
Or maybe you know something about this group we don't? Please tell us ! Was this caused by impatience?

Again, what does your point have to do with canyoneering?
This group was described as 'experienced hikers' by friends and family. My point was and is that experienced hiker is not relevant when is comes to canyoneering. There is a uniqueness to canyons, and of the dangers from rain/weather unlike other areas. Unique from your flooding in VA or NC. Monsoonal rain, slick rock, size of drainage, speed of group ( are they fast, moderate or slow noobs), do they have climbing skills, etc. If not knowledgeable they are in danger, if so it will be an enormous help.
I think it is possible and wise to TRY and help and educate newcomers/out of staters of these differences. If they choose to be impatient, or curious, or not educate themselves so be it.

I believe the canyoneering community can, and maybe, should try to help. Especially newcomers.
Ya know, like Park Rangers explaining that the 50% chance of rain is at 4pm, but only 5% from 8-3pm. Our monsoon season means it is clear in the morning but storms in pm, do the canyon NOW. That slickrock exponentially increases rainwater size and force, that the canyon you have a permit for has a big drainage and might not be safe even hours after rain, etc.

How about canyoneering courses/Guide Services teaching these elements and not just how to rap and tie knots? Maybe they do I hope so, I have not taken one. I do know the climbing class I took taught weather, safety, map & compass, gear, clothing, etc.
Maybe I'm way off but it seems to me that knowledge of how rain and weather work in conjunction with slot canyons is pretty vital info. Maybe the best beta a person can have.

Is that too much? Is that out of line? I understand each person/group has the final responsibility but I do not believe we are all condemned by our impatience or curiosity.
So maybe we shall agree to disagree.

I'll try to come straight to the point I had tried to make.
RISK ASSESSMENT!
It happens every second of every living moment. It doesn't hide itself in canyoneering, driving to school or work, walking the dog, playing the slots in a casino, eating ripe olives......anywhere...anytime. Should I chomp down hard on a pitted olive? Should I push through the yellow light? Should I walk the dog in front of the house with the big german shepard? Should I put another nickle in the slot machine?
Every individual can and does make choices every moment of every day. My choice of replying to your doubt of my intent is not without risk based on the sensitivity of the topic. I choose to take the risk and live with any retribution. Related to Canyoneering: Yes..the weather report generally has a lot to do with my personal risk assessment. I have a choice to make based on information given.

[harness man]

A few years ago, two noobs (Desi and I) pulled up to the upper trailhead to do Mystery Canyon for the first time.
At the trail head, an experienced group of four canyoneers were just leaving also for Mystery.
One of them said hello to us, politely inquired what canyon we were doing, then departed with his group.
When we approached the drop in, and were fiddling with map, compass, and beta to make SURE of the canyon head....
The same gentleman appears again, pointing the way to the correct drainage, checking with us on our rope lengths, and warning about the death gulley.
HE HAD LEFT HIS GROUP AND HIKED BACK 1/4 MILE TO CHECK ON TWO STRANGERS
Years later we met this same fellow again, this time making a 'sales call' with our rope bags at the Desert Rat.
He was (the legendary) Bo Beck.
Story told to illustrate the type of person Bo is:
One who really cares about people

[flatiron]

I'll try to come straight to the point I had tried to make.
RISK ASSESSMENT!
It happens every second of every living moment. It doesn't hide itself in canyoneering, driving to school or work, walking the dog, playing the slots in a casino, eating ripe olives......anywhere...anytime. Should I chomp down hard on a pitted olive? Should I push through the yellow light? Should I walk the dog in front of the house with the big german shepard? Should I put another nickle in the slot machine?
Every individual can and does make choices every moment of every day. My choice of replying to your doubt of my intent is not without risk based on the sensitivity of the topic. I choose to take the risk and live with any retribution. Related to Canyoneering: Yes..the weather report generally has a lot to do with my personal risk assessment. I have a choice to make based on information given.

Look we agree on all with 1 exception. I too absolutely believe in personal risk assessment, and responsibility.
But how do you judge risk?
All of those examples have nothing to do with the uniqueness of slots. Everyone of those examples is something people for the most part have done or do on a daily basis. They have Prior knowledge and experience to judge. Then maybe they are impatient or curious and make a bad decision with bad consequences.
That in my opinion, maybe you know better, was NOT what happened with this group.

My point is HOW do you judge risk if you have never done it before?
In the case of doing slot canyons, my knowledge as a noob means I know next to nothing about the risk. My experience as a hiker means very little. So how do I make a risk assessment? How do I make risk assessment hiking to 20K' if I have never it done before? Does my being an 'experienced canyoneer' prepare me? No.

I do not want layers of rules and regs. But I do think as a community maybe we can try to teach and educate.
Is it the canyon comm responsibility? No. Should it try to help? Yes.
Personally don't you do same when you take noobs out to do canyons, climb, hike. Of course. I would bet everyone on this forum does same. I doubt anyone just leaves the risk assessment to the noob/friend/child you take out the 1st time. Maybe we can think of all noobs that way - since everyone was a noob once.

[Bo_Beck]

Look we agree on all with 1 exception. I too absolutely believe in personal risk assessment, and responsibility.
But how do you judge risk?
All of those examples have nothing to do with the uniqueness of slots. Everyone of those examples is something people for the most part have done or do on a daily basis. They have Prior knowledge and experience to judge. Then maybe they are impatient or curious and make a bad decision with bad consequences.
That in my opinion, maybe you know better, was NOT what happened with this group.

My point is HOW do you judge risk if you have never done it before?
In the case of doing slot canyons, my knowledge as a noob means I know next to nothing about the risk. My experience as a hiker means very little. So how do I make a risk assessment? How do I make risk assessment hiking to 20K' if I have never it done before? Does my being an 'experienced canyoneer' prepare me? No.

I do not want layers of rules and regs. But I do think as a community maybe we can try to teach and educate.
Is it the canyon comm responsibility? No. Should it try to help? Yes.
Personally don't you do same when you take noobs out to do canyons, climb, hike. Of course. I would bet everyone on this forum does same. I doubt anyone just leaves the risk assessment to the noob/friend/child you take out the 1st time. Maybe we can think of all noobs that way - since everyone was a noob once.

I think we are on the same page.To attempt an answer to our one lingering unknown, I'd just have to say...weather forecasting is a science, but not an exact science. Just like odds at a casino, a person has to determine whether or not they're willing to try and defy those odds? At a casino my life isn't at stake so I may lose some money...oh well. Does this response make sense to you? I'm going to try my best to insure the odds are in my favor when canyoneering because my life is at stake. I think there isn't really anything that can be taught in regards to a decision about whether or not to go. It's a personal intuitive decision. If you are a risk taker and feel that you can beat the odds, then you'll probably go. If you are more conservative, you don't put your last dollar in the slot machine. Everyone is fed information, and it's up to them to use it the way they feel appropriate. Just had a good talk with Jeff Lowe a few hours ago, and he beat the odds many times and still is. Others weren't as fortunate, inexperienced as well as extremely experienced. A problem I see is that the propagation of "New Canyoneers" is like the propagation of Jack Rabbits on the plains. I believe that with the advent of media, social media, and the sheer numbers wanting to get involved, the sport is perceived as a simple, low risk activity, therefore folks are venturing out on their own and believing they already have the skills necessary.

If there's a lesson that can be learned, I think this sums it up pretty well?

A quote from Jeffs Bio:
Ralph's climbing techniques were old school and rough, but Jeff can't remember any close calls. His dad seemed to have things under control and instilled in the kids the absolute need to be responsible for their own actions. Those were wonderful, simpler times when safety was not looked for or found in gear, but rather was expected of each individual.

No mal-intent with my response, nor any chest thumping. I work at an outdoor equipment store, and am confronted with "New Canyoneers" every day. I try to be informative and be as up-front as possible. Never do I wish harm to anyone involved, or becoming involved in the sport.

[ratagonia]

Is it required for anyone who enters a canyon in Zion?

Context for this---

[Mountaineer]

Context for this---

In regards to the video idea, there is one already in place. Next to the wilderness desk. One purpose is that you must watch it to become an express member. The ranger talks about flash flood risks there. Seems to meet the need and issue.

[Mac]

In regards to the video idea, there is one already in place. Next to the wilderness desk. One purpose is that you must watch it to become an express member. The ranger talks about flash flood risks there. Seems to meet the need and issue.

You can view the video at home before you leave also.

http://www.nps.gov/zion/learn/photosmultimedia/canyoneeringsafety.htm

Mac

[Glenn]

I knew there were backcountry videos at the Wilderness desk, but didn't know there were ones about Canyoneering. Thanks for the link, Mac.

[Rob L]

Shirley about time that rather dated video got updated and became targeted at canyoneers, rather than (as it seems) aimed at casual canyoneers AND the general Narrows-tourist public.

It's good that they emphasise rope knowledge and skills, but show some proper flash flood footage, and not a "gentle meandering of twigs".

Rob

[dougr]

The slippery slope is underway. Each accident, the video and requirements will get "improved" for our safety. After a landmark liability lawsuit, Zion canyons will be closed in a progressive decision. It'll be hailed as a victory for the environment and for taking the edge off our society.

The solution is disobedience. We see in many segments of society now the disobeyers of the law win in the end. I for one will not obey new regs.

[ratagonia]

The slippery slope is underway. Each accident, the video and requirements will get "improved" for our safety. After a landmark liability lawsuit, Zion canyons will be closed in a progressive decision. It'll be hailed as a victory for the environment and for taking the edge off our society.

The solution is disobedience. We see in many segments of society now the disobeyers of the law win in the end. I for one will not obey new regs.

Really?

Any evidence to support these paranoid ravings?

Or, are you one that does not need evidence?

Tom

[dougr]

Time will tell, Tom. Time will tell.

[jman]

Crazy to think this was a year ago today. :(




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