Crazy Utah Weather-snowpack

[Scott Card]

http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=149&sid=134181

I have never seen a weirder snow pack than what we have right now. (I tried to put the graph in the post that that didn't work too well.)

One month ago we were pushing zero across the state one month later and we have areas with 750% of normal snow pack.

[jman]

As the KSL meteorologists say, "this rain did absolutely nothing". "It's as if we didn't receive any rain" or "this rain was just a mere pin drop in the bucket", etc.

Never mind that we received 2" in Kaysville just in the past two days. Just remember this rain did absolutely nothing for the state...according to KSL meteorologists..

:crazy:


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[Scott P]

One month ago we were pushing zero across the state one month later and we have areas with 750% of normal snow pack.

It is weird and it has been the same in Colorado.

Keep in mind, however, that as far as percentages go, they don't mean as much this time of year since the averages in some ares quickly approaching zero. You have to know exactly what you are looking at.

For example, for that 750% for the Price-San Rafael, every single station has less a snow water equivalent of 0.8 inches or less. One hot spell (perhaps even one hot day) would easily wipe that down to zero very quickly.

If there is any snow left at all when the average reaches zero, the percentage is infinity. For the SE Utah, Escalante, and Dirty Devil, the current snowpack percentage is actually infinity (even though it shows up as blank in the chart), since there is some snow left and the nominal/rounded average is now zero. There actually isn't that much snow in those areas, but nominal average is now zero.

Right now, for example, there is actually significantly more snow in Provo River Drainage than there is in the Price-San Rafael Drainage. This time of year 37% snowpack for the Provo River Drainage is a lot more snow than the 750% in the Price-San Rafael Drainage.

Looking at the weather forecast, I would bet that most of those high percentages in Southern Utah are going to drop to zero very quickly, while the ones that appear lower will still have percentages above zero.

Rather than percentages (which are extremely useful mid season), since the averages are now small, a better way to analyze the data is inches above or below normal and the time period for snow melt off, whether it be sooner or later than normal.

[Scott Card]

Thanks Scott for the explanation. That helps me understand better what I am looking at with those charts. And jman, I agree. I don't understand the meteorologists comments either. I haven't had my sprinklers on for a month, farmers haven't been drawing heavily on the irrigation, the temps have been cooler than normal, the grass is growing tall for the ranchers, etc. How can this not help our state? The two closest reservoirs Deer Creek and Jordanelle are 93% and 77% full, respectively. Not bad for a drought. Now I get that the summer hasn't started and we have no idea how hot it will be but the rain clearly has helped Utah.

[Iceaxe]

As the KSL meteorologists say, "this rain did absolutely nothing". "It's as if we didn't receive any rain" or "this rain was just a mere pin drop in the bucket", etc.

Any meteorologist making such an asinine statement would instantly lose all credibly with me.

While a huge snow pack would have been better for the water year this rain has been a blessing, just ask any farmer, rancher or wino on the street.

[qedcook]

Any meteorologist making such an asinine statement would instantly lose all credibly with me.

While a huge snow pack would have been better for the water year this rain has been a blessing, just ask any farmer, rancher or wino on the street.

The wino's opinion is the most important of all!

[Scott P]

As the KSL meteorologists say, "this rain did absolutely nothing". "It's as if we didn't receive any rain" or "this rain was just a mere pin drop in the bucket", etc.

I'm just curious. Where did they say that?

[Scott Card]

I'm just curious. Where did they say that?
I can't point you to the quote on which day but I remember hearing it on the news about 2-3 weeks ago and I have heard it restated by at least a dozen of my friends and family members who also heard the same thing. This may be the story:

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=34516222

This story was just released about an hour ago which is a little better.

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=34835698

[jman]

I'm just curious. Where did they say that?

It's hard to copy and paste on a mobile-phone but here are some screenshots I took of KSL. The highlighted parts is what I'm talking about.

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/05/28/97dd691bdc8bbef0e631b0909baa2ea3.jpg

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/05/28/374e61c7126ef109e262b9342440a110.jpg

Of course, all this rain does not equal snow but as Mr. Card mentioned above, it all helps!

Edit: Scott found the exact article I was looking for! Thanks!


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[Scott P]

Actually, they are right. What they are saying is that although the rain is helping, it isn't enough to end the drought and that conditions are still dire. So, yes, the rain has been a blessing, but it's still not a drought buster.

Here is the current drought monitor for the US, last updated on May 26, which is currently the most up to date data available:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west

Even after the rains, all of Utah, for example, ranges from abnormal dry to extreme drought.

Snowpack might be closer to normal right now, but that doesn't account for all the snowpack that never came and should have melted off and added to runoff by now. So, while current snow depths are nearer to normal (or above normal in some places), snowfall for the water year (which is what fills the reservoirs) is well below normal for the water year. In fact, so far this year, the drought has actually become more severe. Compare the current data link above to that at the beginning of the year:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20141230/20141230_west_date.png

Still, the rains have been a blessing.

[Sombeech]

When you take 10 year averages, sure it looks like a drought. But realistically, we go from year to year, the lakes fill up, then they go down in the fall. This year, we are not in a drought.

The snow will be there in june just along the Wasatch front, keeping the steady streams flowing.



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[Scott P]

But realistically, we go from year to year, the lakes fill up, then they go down in the fall. This year, we are not in a drought.

Just because people aren't completely out of water does not mean that there isn't a drought. A drought is simply a deficiency of precipitation and moisture in comparison to normal. Although population growth also plays a big part in this example, I think that anyone who visits Lake Powell and sees the water level, for example, would say that we are in a drought.

[rockgremlin]

A drought is simply a deficiency of precipitation and moisture in comparison to normal.


I believe the term "normal" is a moving target when dealing with constantly changing weather systems...

[Iceaxe]

Here is a good article on what is really happening with regards to our drought and wettest May ever...

Despite heavy rain, recent downpours in Utah fail to wash away drought - http://www.deseretnews.com/865629619/

[Scott P]

For example, for that 750% for the Price-San Rafael, every single station has less a snow water equivalent of 0.8 inches or less. One hot spell (perhaps even one hot day) would easily wipe that down to zero very quickly.

Case in point.

The 750% for the Price/San Rafael yesterday dropped to 0% today:

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=149&sid=134181

This weekend is predicted to be a warm one in Utah and Colorado.

Salt Lake is supposed to be in the 90's and St. George is supposed to be pushing 100F. Even where I live, we are supposed to be 84F.

It's supposed to be around 70F at 9000 feet, which will start melting the snowpack.

[tallsteve]

It still bugs me when the experts tell us the rains haven't done any good. As I have spent many, many hours up AF Canyon over the past 3 weeks doing trail work and see that the tremendous amount of storm water is sheeting down the hillsides because the ground is saturated and into the streams and rivulets which, in turn, flow into the rivers, reservoirs and lakes, common sense tells me that it has to have done some good.

[Scott Card]

Maybe I don't understand "the drought". If our reservoirs are full in September will that mean the end of a dought? What constitutes the end? They seem to focus on river flow but what about secondary storage? What about ground water? What about usage? Anyone know the measuring sticks to determine what is "a drought" and when it ends?

[jman]

And like RockGremlin stated above, which is true, is that the "normal" changes. What once was lake Bonneville is now a desert. So compared to those days, we have been in a "drought" for the past 14,000 years.


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[Iceaxe]

I blame it all on Obama.