MONSOOOOOOOONNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[canyonguru]

Well it looks like zion is finaly going to see some good rain this weekend. The NOAA is already forcasting flash flood watches for this weekend. I don't live up there but for those that do, can you post up what the weather ends up doing or some pictures of flooding. It really helps out the appitie of us weather junky's that don't live up there. thanks a bunch

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.23360859943705&lon=-112.95318603515625&site=slc&unit=0&lg=&FcstType=text

[skiclimb3287]

Bummed out about that. I am headed down this weekend with my girlfriend and two other friends to do the subway on saturday. Looks like those plans will have to change. I am the only one in the group who had been through before. 3 years of being skunked in the lottery, finally I pull one, and after three months of no rain, it looks like it is going to really let loose. :what::mad:

Well, time to craft plan B...any suggestions of the best place to see a flash flood if it is really coming down? :D

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[2065toyota]

Most rains are in the late afternoon. It's entirely your decision, but we've always found that by getting an early start we are out of the canyons by rain time. It does only say 30% chance all weekend, and they are always spot on with their predictions. I would keep your plans and if it gets really bad once you get to the actual drop in to the Subway, you could always go back to North Guardian or Northgate peaks as a backup plans

[skiclimb3287]

Hmmmm.... The link from the zion website says 80% chance of heavy rains all day. Our plan was to leave st. george at 5:30 or so when it said 30%. My concern is this looks like more of a storm system than the typical build in the afternoon deal. We will certainly play it by ear. I also grabbed a keyhole permit so that we could always quickly run through something short early if it is just starting to build.

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[ratagonia]

Bummed out about that. I am headed down this weekend with my girlfriend and two other friends to do the subway on saturday. Looks like those plans will have to change. I am the only one in the group who had been through before. 3 years of being skunked in the lottery, finally I pull one, and after three months of no rain, it looks like it is going to really let loose. :what::mad:

Well, time to craft plan B...any suggestions of the best place to see a flash flood if it is really coming down? :D

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Subway is a *relatively* safe canyon vis a vis flash floods. It certainly CAN flash and flash big, as in GIANT! But the time spent in inescapable narrows is very short.

Still, a crack of dawn start would be a good idea. And extra food. And raincoats... etc.

YMMV

Tom (The Z-Team version of Tom, that is.) :twisted:

[ratagonia]

Hmmmm.... The link from the zion website says 80% chance of heavy rains all day. Our plan was to leave st. george at 5:30 or so when it said 30%. My concern is this looks like more of a storm system than the typical build in the afternoon deal. We will certainly play it by ear. I also grabbed a keyhole permit so that we could always quickly run through something short early if it is just starting to build.

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hmmmm. thought they all used the same data and updated continuously...

Weather Underground has 50% at 6 am, noon, and 6 pm; with 10% at midnight.

but it also says:




Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.


But, it will change.

Tom

[Iceaxe]

Subway is a *relatively* safe canyon vis a vis flash floods. It certainly CAN flash and flash big, as in GIANT! But the time spent in inescapable narrows is very short.

Still, a crack of dawn start would be a good idea. And extra food. And raincoats... etc.


^^^THIS^^^

With regards to the Subway, It would take a lot for me to switch to plan B. I don't consider the Subway a "slot canyon".

But then again.... commonsense isn't really as common as you would think....

:bud:

[canyonguru]

i think i would rather be in the lower subway that in the middle of Keyhole if there is a flash coming. Yeah Keyhole you can pretty much see the collection basin from the top of the drop in but rain can drop fast and be very unpredictable.

I am a big thunder storm junky and love to watch flooding and slot canyons fill up. It is unfortunate that sometimes big storms cause lives and damage but to me it is an amazing act of nature. I hope everyone is safe this monsoon season.

[Iceaxe]

I am a big thunder storm junky and love to watch flooding and slot canyons fill up.

x2

When I had my boat on Lake Powell we used to spend a lot of time chasing down thunderstorms on the lake so we could watch the canyons flash. Honestly, what else you going to do with a 32' cigarette powered by a blown 500 ci Chevy. :haha:

I bet I've easily witnessed two or three hundred flash floods (not all on Lake Powell). Biggest flash flood I witnessed was in Oak Canyon, which is super narrow. I had just backed off the beach at the head of the canyon because we knew it was about to flash. I backed about 30' off the beach when the flood came down and it lifted the boat about 10'... lucky we backed off the beach or the debris in the flood would have smashed the boat..... really crazy shit...

[skiclimb3287]

hmmmm. thought they all used the same data and updated continuously...

Weather Underground has 50% at 6 am, noon, and 6 pm; with 10% at midnight.

But, it will change.

Tom[/FONT][/COLOR][/LEFT]

Weather.com is still saying 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms and partly cloudy, while wunderground says 80% now. I like the weather.com forecast better... :p Possible different interpretations of the two major weather models, but I am sure Scott P could probably explain it.

Driving in the Fillmore region currently and just got nailed by a rediculous storm cell...just a wall of water! Doesn't make me feel great about what we will find south. What had out been doing in the zion area?




With regards to the Subway, It would take a lot for me to switch to plan B. I don't consider the Subway a "slot canyon".

But then again.... commonsense isn't really as common as you would think....

:bud:

That is what I had remembered of the subway...only approx 15 minutes of real narrows that are for the most part inescapable, whereas the rest has high ground. Probably, will head out there at the crack o dawn with everything packed, check the weather, and go for a 2 mile+ hike before making a final call. Worst case, we turn around.

Would the subway be considered a minor tributary, which takes a fair volume to flash and thus flashes big or not at all? Or...????


i think i would rather be in the lower subway that in the middle of Keyhole if there is a flash coming. Yeah Keyhole you can pretty much see the collection basin from the top of the drop in but rain can drop fast and be very unpredictable.


I agree with that, but my thought was I can do keyhole in an hour to an hour and a half and you can recap at the middle of the canyon, do if this was a late morning or afternoon deal, them wer could blaze through early. But, yes, I wouldn't want to be in keyhole in the rain either. :screwy:

Well any further advice involving what is actually going on down there would be much appreciated. Obviously, the final decision would be made ourselves in the morning based on what is currently happening and what is supposed to happen...my gut usually screams loudly when things aren't right.

:beer:

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[Scott P]

The forecast for the Subway is actually 90% chance of heavy rain:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.31447530414411&lon=-113.06716918945312&site=slc&unit=0&lg=&FcstType=text

In contrast to the above opinions, personally, I would not do the Subway then. It's not worth the risk to me.

Years ago we got hit by a flood in Dark Canyon. Dark Canyon is a comparitively wide canyon. Me and one of my brothers stepped across the narrow and clear stream and set up camp. My dad and other brothers were down canyon when the flood hit and it was difficult to cross. A flash flood is more than just water; it's mud, logs, debri, etc. Any creek crossing, narrow canyon or not is extremely difficult because the water is extremely muddy. My dad and one brother could have easily drowned and when the flood hit my dad lost his glasses. I was not able to drive at that age and he tried to show me how, but luckily another adult was around and helped drive us the rest of the way out (though the other adult didn't know how to drive a stick either and had to have a crash course). 90% chance is really high and if a real flash flood hits when you are in the Subway, you're screwed. I don't even think the NPS issues permits with that forecast anyway.


Weather.com is still saying 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms and partly cloudy, while wunderground says 80% now. I like the weather.com forecast better...

Weather.gov is better because you can get a forecast for the Subway rather than Springdale.

[Iceaxe]

Would the subway be considered a minor tributary, which takes a fair volume to flash and thus flashes big or not at all? Or...????

It probably matters who you ask.... but... I would call it medium/small.... I'd call White Canyon, Zion Narrows or Parunaweap a major tributary.

I'd call Leprechaun, Fat Man's, Birch Hollow a minor tributary. In a small drainage it pretty much has to rain right on your head to cause you issues.

The good part about the Subway is you can see the entire drainage from the trailhead and again before committing to the actual slot. Nothing is hiding from you and a storm 30 miles away is not going to effect you, which is the big danger is a major drainage like The Narrows or White Canyon.

Anyhoo..... that's just me. Everyone has their own level of acceptable risk.

[canyonguru]

i acually like the NOAA.gov website becuase you can move the little box right over the acually area you are hiking. It is the most direct model of the area you are in, at least IMO. It looks like zion got hit hard last night and again right now sat. morning. Hope all is well up there.

[Russted]

x2 on NOAA.gov. I check that site out a few times and week and religiously before doing any trips if the weather is sketchy...

From NOAA:

UNTIL NOON MDT * AT 901 AM MDT..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN FROM A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE NORTH CREEK AND DRY CREEK DRAINAGES IN EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. * FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CREEK AND DRY CREEK DRAINAGES FROM THE HEADWATERS THROUGH TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE VIRGIN RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE SUBWAY AREA IN ZION NATIONAL PARK. OFFICIALS WITHIN ZION NATIONAL PARK HAVE REPORTED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS AND SOME WATER COVERING ROADWAYS.

Interesting that they singled out "The Subway Area." Not that familiar with Zion, so I was wondering what roads would have water over them? Hwy 9 in the park?

[canyoncaver]

...my gut usually screams loudly when things aren't right.


My gut usually screams loudly when I EAT at Subway.

Yeah check it out, but remember that the hassle of the permit system is not enough reason to take risks that you normally wouldn't...

[ratagonia]

x2 on NOAA.gov. I check that site out a few times and week and religiously before doing any trips if the weather is sketchy...

From NOAA:

UNTIL NOON MDT * AT 901 AM MDT..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN FROM A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE NORTH CREEK AND DRY CREEK DRAINAGES IN EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. * FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CREEK AND DRY CREEK DRAINAGES FROM THE HEADWATERS THROUGH TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE VIRGIN RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE SUBWAY AREA IN ZION NATIONAL PARK. OFFICIALS WITHIN ZION NATIONAL PARK HAVE REPORTED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS AND SOME WATER COVERING ROADWAYS.

Interesting that they singled out "The Subway Area." Not that familiar with Zion, so I was wondering what roads would have water over them? Hwy 9 in the park?

The Kolob Terrace road leads up to the Subway. There is a place where it crosses North Creek near a couple houses where the bridge is not all that high above the creekbed - could flood there.

Also, where North Creek crosses highway 9 just north of Virgin, it has crossed the road previously.

"Dry Creek" :roflol::roflol::roflol:

Tom

[skiclimb3287]

Yeah check it out, but remember that the hassle of the permit system is not enough reason to take risks that you normally wouldn't...

I agree completely. I am the first one to back away on the side of caution, but will never hesitate to go as fast as is safe and make a final call then. I have turned back from many canyons and summits.

That being said, we decided to give it a go this morning if for no other reason than to get at least some hiking in in pretty country. We hit the TH at 615 or so and begun the hike. About 2-2.5 miles in, the clouds stated to look ominous, and all of a sudden the sky opened on us and unleashed its fury! We were in a safe area on slickrock, but out of any damages. Just as we were about to head out, we heared water from across the asters we were standing on. We headed over to check it out, and sure enough the gully was flashing! Next thing we knew, we could see about 6 waterfalls all draining into Russel Gulch and a decent flow heading down Russel! Cool to see! Got some good photos and video...i think. After a couple beers in the parking lot, we decided to head to cave valley to hike around a bit, then to Oscars to wrap up a good day. Trip report soon!

Thanks to all for the advice and opinions!

:beer:

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[zul]

Sweet. Way to 'go for it' and evaluate the situation properly. Seems like you pulled the plug at the right time and enjoyed a rare beauty on your way out.

:beer:

Good judgement on a good day. When you set eyes on the Keyhole for the first time, it will be inspired and that much more for your experience. Count on it.

zul

[Win]

We had torrentials in the AM yesterday at home. Headed up Kolob this morning and took the dog to Lower Sunset for a swim, looked like it had had a lot of rain yesterday but the creek was pretty low.

We followed a burn team from Texas up to Lava Pt and they were just having a well deserved picnic.

[Scott Card]

Just saw this after I looked at radar for Zion Park. Yikes. Hope the canyons are empty of people because it looks like they are about to be filled with water.



/O.NEW.KSLC.SV.W.0008.120716T2210Z-120716T2300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN UTAH
* UNTIL 500 PM MDT
* AT 408 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
11 MILES SOUTH OF HURRICANE...OR 18 MILES EAST OF ST GEORGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HURRICANE... LA VERKIN... TOQUERVILLE... VIRGIN... ROCKVILLE AND
SPRINGDALE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3727 11330 3721 11296 3698 11314 3699 11339
3700 11340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 210DEG 21KT 3701 11327
MPS

[Scott Card]

If I knew how to take a post a screen shot of the radar picture right now, it is pretty imposing for those in Zion Park and surrounding areas!

[Scott Card]

Right after one cell passed over Pine Creek. Wish I was headed down for a splashy day tomorrow!

56423

[Exergy]

56423

What's the picture of Garfield laying down in the grass have to do with canyons?

[accadacca]

Be careful out there. Lotta storms brewing over the next few days.

[Felicia]

Be careful out there. Lotta storms brewing over the next few days.

X2

These days, it is hard to find a drier weekend in Zion. Labour Day weekend is starting to look wet also. Maybe this weekend will be OK?

[Taylor]

Perhaps but I wouldn't trust a dry forecast. When planning last weekend's Zion trip (earlier that week)I was encouraged to see most forecasts in the 0-10% range for chance of rain. Didn't quite turn out to be a dry weekend.