Memorial Weekend a Bust? (FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE OUT)

[Scott P]

Looks like everywhere I check the forecast to in Utah is 30%-60% chance of rain and thunderstorms over Memorial weekend.

Not good for slot canyons. So much for finally getting to Choprock; not worth the risk.

We may try for a less risky canyon or possibly I might climb some peaks instead.

What's everyone else doing?

How many others have changed plans?

[goofball]

i've been keeping track of weather.com

sat = .30 scatteredd t-storms
su/mo = .20 precip. and partly cloudy
tu = .10 precip and partly cloudy

doesn't sound too bad...

i got a pass last minute and south fork robbers roost is the plan.

[AJ]

I've changed plans too. We were going to do Reef stuff; but now might switch to some NW stuff; with Pandoras thrown in for the Sunday weather window...


i've been keeping track of weather.com

sat = .30 scatteredd t-storms
su/mo = .20 precip. and partly cloudy
tu = .10 precip and partly cloudy

doesn't sound too bad...

i got a pass last minute and south fork robbers roost is the plan.

NW Sat .30 scattered - likely doing Trachyte stuff.
Reef Sun .10 - Pandoras
NW Mon .10 - Some of Dave's mini-slots are on the list, and then drive home.

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

[Scott P]

i've been keeping track of weather.com

I was actually looking at the noaa forecast for Utah.

In rural/remote areas (including the one I live in), I find that most of the time noaa is more accurate than weather.com or accuweather. In Craig, we've had it rain and snow several times when weather.com predicts a 0% chance.

The special weather statement under Watches, Warnings & Advisorie says the following:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=UTZ020&warncounty=UTC017&firewxzone=UTZ440&local_place1=Escalante+UT&product1=Special+Weather+Statement


...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH DURING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

MOISTURE...MORE TYPICAL OF THE MONSOON SEASON OF JULY AND
AUGUST...WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
DURING THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...PARTICULARLY AREAS PRONE TO
FLASH FLOODING SUCH AS SLICKROCK AND SLOT CANYONS WITHIN ZION AND
CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARKS...THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL AND THE GRAND
STAIRCASE-ESCALANTE NATIONAL MONUMENT...AS WELL AS BOATERS ON LAKE
POWELL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Anyway, noaa is not so good for the Roost:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.34057907754284&lon=-110.43182373046875&site=slc&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en


Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. South southeast wind at 6 mph becoming west.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Memorial Day: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Escalante, Cedar Mesa and the San Rafael has about the same weather forecast with a little variance.

We'll probably just hike a wide canyon unless I find someone that wants to go river running last minute.

[Iceaxe]

What's everyone else doing?

Canyons and Slot Canyons.....

I'm actually hoping for a little rain to cool things off and fill up the potholes.

20 to 30% doesn't bother me unless it rains hard or right on top of us. We'll get an early start and be out of the slots before the usual afternoon thunderstorms hit.

:cool2:

[Alex]

When it rains and flashes, you pick up rubber and go RAFTING! :2thumbs: :twisted:

[trackrunner]

What's everyone else doing?

Canyons and Slot Canyons.....

I'm actually hoping for a little rain to cool things off and fill up the potholes.

20 to 30% doesn't bother me unless it rains hard or right on top of us. We'll get an early start and be out of the slots before the usual afternoon thunderstorms hit.

:cool2:

Same may modify the left fork idea.

[Scott P]

20 to 30% doesn't bother me unless it rains hard or right on top of us.

Actually Shane, the forecast says 60% throughout SE Utah, at least for tomorrow. Next day is 40-50% depending on location.


When it rains and flashes, you pick up rubber and go RAFTING!

That's what I was thinking too. I've been making phone calls, but so far no takers. Unless you are kayaking, solo river running is tough.

[mrabe1979]

Well choprock could use some water. We went through there about a week ago. The Grim section wasn't so grim. we walked under a lot of the log jams I remember climbing over two years ago. :ne_nau:

[Iceaxe]

Actually Shane, the forecast says 60% throughout SE Utah, at least for tomorrow. Next day is 40-50% depending on location.


Yup... gone up since I looked yesterday.... anyhoo... That just means I will put a little more planning into my back-up plan than usual.

I already had one class C canyon on my menu for this weekend.... maybe I'll end up with more. :haha:

:popcorn:

[Reedus]

When it rains and flashes, you pick up rubber and go RAFTING! :2thumbs: :twisted:

I always wear my trusty arm floaties in the slots when thunder storms are threatening.

[qedcook]

Is it too early for the Great White Icicle?

I might try to do that one on Memorial Day. I drove up and took a look at the waterfall. It looks pretty raging. Already did Rocky Mouth Canyon earlier this month and it is usually more full of water than the icicle.

[Scott P]

It's been raining here and no slot canyons for me. :cry: Really frustrating and I just didn't want to chance it.

At least we got a mountain in:

http://www.summitpost.org/custom-object/477971/2009-trip-log.html

[moab mark]

Just had a short story on fox 13 news about a flash flood in kane creek in moab. Had to airlift out some people who were jeeping.

Mark